Racing Trends for Cheltenham (17 November 2018)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

The Racing Horse offers more powerful racing trends with perceptive betting advice and our Racecourse Templates for Cheltenham races on Saturday.

A huge mistake was made yesterday and sincere apologies to our members! We had foolishly believed Tiger Roll was well/fit enough to race seriously after reading the comments of trainer Gordon Elliott beforehand. In fairness to that point this was the reason we had a stake-saver on Josies Orders so we escaped from the race relatively unscathed.

Tiger Roll was on and off the bridle at stages, and never threatened to get involved. Having run wide on the final turn, Elliott’s National winner stayed on into fourth but was there for a day out. Elliott said: “It was a lovely run, Keith Donoghue just said he was a little bit rusty and had a couple of blows – I thought I had him a bit fitter, but it was his first time on the track since the National." Those comments were dodgy at best, when we saw the rug coming off this small horse we saw a belly and although the huge drift told us we were already in trouble the visuals confirmed it! The trainer then confirmed March was the target off level weights and our foolishness further exposed! Hearing Luke Harvey tell us that Tiger Roll had just ran a great race irritated us but confirmed his good for tele comedy status!

FAVOURITES
NON-HANDICAP RACES (5 YEARS)       HANDICAP RACES (5 YEARS)

Hurdle:   50-107 for 47% (+10.73)   13-94  for 14% (-43.63)
Chase:    53-123 for 43%  (-4.90)   18-111 for 16% (-32.17)
NHF:       7-25  for 28%  (-1.00)     0-0  for  - 
Total:   110-255 for 43%  (+4.84)   31-27 for 32% (-41.09)

TOP TRAINERS at Cheltenham for 2017/18 season
Nicky Henderson: 14 wins from 71 for 20% (-14.46)
Gordon Elliott:   9 wins from 40 for 23% (+56.72)
Colin Tizzard     9 wins from 61 for 15%  (-1.79)
N Twiston-Davies: 7 wins from 63 for 21%  (+1.45)
W P Mullins:      7 wins from 63 for 11% (+11.40)

TOP JOCKEYS at Cheltenham for 2017/18 season
Barry Geraghty: 9 wins from 43 for 21%  (-8.09)
Davy Russell:   5 wins from 27 for 19% (+11.50)
Harry Skelton:  5 wins from 33 for 15% (-11.66)
Noel Fehily:    5 wins from 41 for 12%  (-7.00)
Paddy Brennan:  5 wins from 42 for 12%  (-2.00)

12.40 Cheltenham: JCB Triumph Hurdle Trial (Grade 2) 2m87y

13/13: Finished in top 3 last time out (100%)
12/13: Won between 0-2 times over hurdles before (92%)
11/13: Never raced at Cheltenham before (85%)
10/13: Returned 4/1 or shorter (77%)
10/13: Won last time out (77%)
..9/13: Raced in the last 4 weeks (69%)
..9/13: Went onto race in Triumph Hurdle (Cheltenham Festival) (69%)
..9/13: Favourites that finished in the top 2 (69%)
..8/13: Carried 11st 2lbs or more in weight (62%)
..7/13: Winning favourites (54%)
..5/13: Irish bred (38%)
..5/13: Went onto finish 1st or 2nd in the Triumph Hurdle (38%)
..4/13: German bred (31%)
..3/13: Ridden by Barry Geraghty (23%)
..3/13: Raced at Chepstow last time out (23%)
..3/13: Trained by Paul Nicholls (23%)
..3/13: Trained by Philip Hobbs (23%)
..2/13: Trained by Alan King (15%)
..2/13: Trained by Nicky Henderson (15%)
..2/13: Ridden by Ruby Walsh (15%)
..2/13: Then won Triumph Hurdle (Defi Du Seuill 2017, Katchit 2006) (15%)


Owner JP McManus has won the last two runnings
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 7/2

TIMEFORM

MONTESTREL looked a potentially useful recruit in running down Quel Destin late on at Chepstow last month, and on that evidence, looks capable of making his mark at this higher level. Never Adapt is a highly interesting recruit from France, having joined powerful connections who introduced Apple's Shakira in this race 12 months ago. Quel Destin and Cracker Factory are others to consider.

THE RACING HORSE VERDICT

1: NEVER ADAPT  11/10  2: MONTESTREL 4/1  3: QUEL DESTIN 6/1 (WINNER)

Never Adapt is a winner at Compiegne over 2m (soft) in March, beating Fearless Lady by 10l. Having her first run for a new stable today, previously with Guillaume Macaire in France. Nicky Henderson introduced Apple's Shakira in this race 12 months ago. The trainer told us: "I like her a lot. She was pretty keen when she won in France but she won nicely and she has done everything well while she has been with us. As she won a race she can't come into a normal novice hurdle, so she might as well run in a race like this."

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1.15 Cheltenham: mallardjewellers.com Novices' Chase (Class 2) 2m4f110y

13/13: Won a race over at least 2m4f (fences) before (100%)
11/13: Aged 7yo or younger (85%)
11/13: Returned 4/1 or shorter (85%)
11/13: Favourites placed 1st or 2nd (85%)
10/13: Raced no more than twice over fences (77%)
10/13: Raced in the last 6 weeks (77%)
10/13: Raced at Cheltenham before (77%)
..9/13: Won between 0-1 times over fences before (69%)
..8/13: Aged 6yo (62%)
..8/13: Raced at Cheltenham (3), Aintree (2) or Wetherby (2) lto (62%)
..7/13: Went onto run in the RSA Chase (no winners) (54%)
..7/13: Won last time out (54%)
..7/13: Irish bred (54%)
..5/13: Winning favourites (38%)
..3/13: Trained by David Pipe (23%)
..3/13: Trained by Paul Nicholls (23%)
..2/13: Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies (15%)
..2/13: Ridden by Paddy Brennan (15%)


The average winning SP in the last 10 running is 4/1

TIMEFORM

THE WORLDS END has the potential to take high rank among this season's staying novice chasers and can build on his impressive winning start in this discipline at Chepstow last month. Recent Aintree scorer Minella Awards could perhaps be the one to give him most to do, although Theatre Territory ended last season with a couple of placed efforts in top-end handicaps and also merits respect.

THE RACING HORSE VERDICT

1: THE WORLDS END 10/11 (3rd)  2: MINELLA AWARDS 5/1  3: IBIS DU RHEU 13/2 (WINNER)

The Worlds End is a winner of four hurdle races, a NH flat race and a chase from 2m to 3m 1f on ground varying from good to soft. Won on his latest outing in a chase when 2/5 at Chepstow over 3m (good) last month, beating Now Mcginty by 14l. This smart Grade 1-winning hurdler who made an impressive winning start to his chase career (jumped well) at Chepstow last month. Sure to improve and hard to beat.

***

1.50 Cheltenham: BetVictor Handicap Chase (Grade 3) 3m3f110y


15/16: Won a 3m+ race over fences before (94%)
14/16: Ran at Cheltenham before (88%)
13/16: Returned 9/1 or shorter (81%)
12/16: Aged 8yo or younger  (75%)
11/16: Carried 10st 13lbs or less in weight (69%)
10/16: Won between 3 and 5 times over fences before (63%)
..9/16: Irish bred (56%)
..9/16: Ran within the last month (56%)
..8/16: Officially rated between 135 and 146 (50%)
..8/16: Came from the top 3 in the betting (50%)
..8/16: Won over fences at Cheltenham before (50%)
..7/16: Finished in the top 3 last time out (44%)
..7/16: Ran at Cheltenham (4) or Sandown (2) lto (44%)
..6/16: French bred (38%)
..3/16: Won last time out (19%)
..2/16: Winning favourites (1 co) (13%)
..2/16: Trained by the Pipe stable (13%)
..2/16: Trained by Paul Nicholls (13%)
..2/16: Trained by Colin Tizzard (13%)
..2/16: Trained by Fergal O’Brien (2 of last 5 years) (13%)


Perfect Candidate (7/1) won the race last year
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 10/1

TIMEFORM

SINGLEFARMPAYMENT goes well fresh and boasts a solid record at this course. With The Young Master unlikely to go to post following his exertions here on Friday, Tom George's charge earns the vote ahead of Vicente, who was narrowly outpointed in this race 12 months ago. Calett Mad is also feared, along with the progressive Sharp Response and 2015 Gold Cup hero Coneygree.

THE RACING HORSE VERDICT

1: ROCK THE KASBAH 11/1 (WINNER)  2: CALETT MAD 9/1  3: SINGLEFARMPAYMENT 13/2

Rock The Kasbah brought curtain down on light campaign last season when runner-up in valuable bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown. There is a big win left in this one and the 11/1 looks attractive

***

2.25 Cheltenham: BetVictor Gold Cup Chase (Grade 3) 2m4f110y

16/16: Ran at Cheltenham before (100%)
15/16: Won over at least 2m4f over fences before (94%)
15/16: Won by a UK-based trainer (94%)
12/16: Returned 12/1 or shorter (75%)
12/16: Won at Cheltenham before (75%)
11/16: Aged 6 or 7yo (69%)
11/16: Won just 2 or 3 times over fences before (69%)
11/16: Trained by Pipe (3), Jonjo O’Neill (3), Nicholls (2) or Twiston-Davies (3) (69%)
10/16: Carried 10st 13lbs or less (But 4 of last 6 carried 10st 13lbs or more) (63%)
10/16: Finished in top 4 last time out (63%)
..8/16: Won by a horse in the first 3 in the betting (50%)
..8/16: Aged 7yo (50%)
..8/16: Won this on their seasonal reappearance (50%)
..7/16: Placed favourites (44%)
..5/16: Won their last race (31%)
..4/16: Trained by the Pipe stable (25%)
..4/16: Ran at Cheltenham last time out (25%)
..3/16: Winning favourites (19%)
..3/16: Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies (19%)
..3/16: Trained by Jonjo O’Neill (19%)
..3/16: Ran at Carlisle last time out (19%)
..2/16: Ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies (13%)
..1/16: Irish-trained winners (6%)


The last winner aged in double-figures was in 1975
Paul Nicholls has saddled 9 placed horses (two winners, Al Ferof & Caid Du Berlais) from his last 34 runners
The average winning SP in the last 16 years is 10.5/1

TIMEFORM

KALONDRA has long since threatened to win a race of this nature, and with conditions likely to be in his favour, is fancied to enhance the fine record of second-season chasers in this race. Rather Be and Mister Whitaker look obvious threats, while Movewiththetimes is another who has the ability to be involved at a bigger price.

THE RACING HORSE VERDICT

1: KALONDRA 13/2  2: RATHER BE 7/1  3: WEST APPROACH 16/1

Kalondra ran well over fences here last season, for a win in December and third of 16 in handicap on final outing, and he looked in the process of another good run when falling two out at Galway in August on latest outing; one of several second-season chasers who needs plenty of respect. His trainer told us: "Kalondra is a talented horse and a bit better than Shantou Village, so I'm hopeful of a good run from him. Both horses are winners around the course, which is a help, and go there in really good order."

***

3.00 Cheltenham: Regulatory Finance Solutions Hurdle (Listed) 3m1f67y

14/16: Aged 7 or younger (88%)
13/16: Carried 10-11 or less in weight (81%)
13/16: Had between 2 and 5 previous hurdles wins (81%)
12/16: Winning distance – 3 ½ lengths or less (75%)
12/16: Had won over at least 2m4f (hurdles) before (75%)
11/16: Officially rated 126 to 137 (69%)
11/16: Placed favourites (69%)
11/16: Ran at either Cheltenham (5), Aintree (3) or Chepstow (3) lto (69%)
10/16: Irish bred (63%)
10/16: Came from the top 3 in the betting (63%)
10/16: Ran within the last month (63%)
..8/16: Had run at Cheltenham before (50%)
..7/16: Won their last race (44%)
..4/10: Ridden by claiming jockey (40%)
..6/16: Winning favourites (1 joint) (36%)
..6/16: Returned 11/4 or shorter in the betting (36%)
..4/16: Won by the Pipe stable (25%)
..1/16: Won by an Irish-trained stable (6%)


The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 9/1

Anteros won the race in 2016 and was second in 2017

TIMEFORM

FIRST ASSIGNMENT landed a gamble on his return here last month and has the potential to progress further for his excellent yard now stepping up to 3m. Weebill and Boyhood are a couple of other unexposed types to consider.

THE RACING HORSE VERDICT

1: SWEET HOME CHICAGO 14/1  2: WEEBILL 5/1  3: FIRST ASSIGNMENT 5/2 (WINNER)

Sweet Home Chicago has won three hurdle races at 3m on good and yielding ground. A winner at 9-1 in a hurdle race at Galway over 3m (yielding) on his latest outing last month, beating Val De Ferbet by 9l. Obviously this race asks for more but just 10st 2lbs to carry and A P Heskin riding makes this an interesting wager at the price!

***

Today's Pacafi: click here

Proven mathematical laws are the governing force of horse racing betting. Consequently every bet we place is conceived then predicated from statistical analysis protected by a maths-based edge with perceived value attached. Our formula is simple because we are yet to be convinced that a complication of a system is proportional to profit. So what do we mean by a maths-based edge? It means finding something with a solid mathematical core, something historically profitable and something that is unlikely to change or suffer fatigue going forward. Then, if we can filter negative influences from the original proposal and provide a sound rationale for doing so, we can claim that betting edge.

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