Racing Trends at Ascot (24 November 2018)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

The Racing Horse offers powerful racing trends in tandem with perceptive betting advice for Ascot races on Saturday. To aid the process we offer valuable information in the shape of our unique Racecourse Templates, where we look at the performance of the different disciplines in both handicap and non-handicap National Hunt races. Finally, we highlight the latest movers and shakers for the course in 2018. This trilateral approach offers absolute relevance and because of its importance/weight this feature is now part of the service we offer our members.

FAVOURITES
NON-HANDICAP RACES (5 YEARS)       HANDICAP RACES (5 YEARS)

Hurdle:   24-51  for 47%  (-0.39)   14-48  for 29%  (-0.13)
Chase:    16-35  for 46%  (-3.36)   14-61  for 23% (-14.04)
NHF:       3-17  for 18%  (-9.47)    0-0   for  - 
Total:    43-103 for 42% (-13.22)   28-109 for 26% (-14.17)

TOP TRAINERS at Ascot for 2017/18 season
Nicky Henderson: 7 wins from 46 for 15% (-13.87)
Harry Fry:       3 wins from 16 for 19%  (-5.50)
Paul Nicholls:   3 wins from 25 for 12% (-14.84)
Gary Moore:      3 wins from 26 for 21% (-11.75)
Robert Walford:  2 wins from  3 for 67% (+17.00)

TOP JOCKEYS at Ascot for 2017/18 season
N de Boinville: 6 wins from 22 for 27%  (+4.12)
Brian Hughes:   3 wins from  5 for 60%  (+9.00)
James Bowen:    3 wins from  5 for 60% (+18.50)
Barry Geraghty: 3 wins from 14 for 21%  (+3.37)
L Aspell:       3 wins from 15 for 20% (+17.87)

2.05 Ascot: Christy 1965 Chase (Grade 2) 2m5f8y

14/15: Aged 8yo or younger (93%)
13/15: Between 1-4 previous chase wins (87%)
12/15: Returned 7/1 or shorter (80%)
11/15: Finished in the top 4 last time out (73%)
10/15: Winning distance – 4 lengths or less (67%)
10/15: Favourites placed (67%)
10/15: Won by a French-bred horse (67%)
10/15: Won over this trip (fences) 2m5f or further before (67%)
10/15: Ran at Aintree (3) or Cheltenham (6) last time out (67%)
..9/15: Went onto run at the Cheltenham Festival that season (60%)
..9/15: Raced within the last 5 weeks (60%)
..8/15: Winning favourites (3 joint) (53%)
..6/15: Won by trainer Paul Nicholls (40%)
..6/15: Won last time out (40%)
..4/15:  Aged 5yo (27%)
..3/15: Won by trainer Nicky Henderson (20%)
..2/15: Won by trainer Alan King (13%)
..2/15: Won by trainer Philip Hobbs (13%)
..2/15: Went onto win at Cheltenham Festival that season (13%)

Top Notch won the race 12 months ago
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 7/2

The 2002 running was at Wincanton, the 2004 renewal at Windsor

Timeform

POLITILOGUE is the class act in the field and an admirable type to boot, so he's fully expected to make a winning seasonal debut before returning to the top level. Charbel's recent success underlined that he's still getting better, so he's regarded as the chief danger ahead of Hammersly Lake.

The Racing Horse Verdict:

1: POLITOLOGUE 6/5 (WINNEER)  2: CHARBEL 4/1 (2nd)

Politologue enjoyed a terrific 2017/18 season at the top level, signing off the campaign with a dominant display in the Melling Chase at Aintree. Goes well fresh, too, so no reason to oppose here.

This winner was our PACAFI and we found the forecast. The Exacta paid £4.10 and the CSF £4.91

***

2.40 Ascot: Coral Hurdle (Grade 2) 2m3f58y

16/16: Priced 7/2 or less (100%)
14/16: Won over at least 2m 1/2f (hurdles) previously (88%)
14/16: Won a Grade 2 (or better) hurdle race previously (88%)
13/16: Won by and Irish (10) or French (3) bred horse (81%)
12/16: Favourites placed (75%)
10/16: Won latest race (63%)
10/16: Won by a horse aged 7yo or older (63%)
10/16: Won Grade 1 hurdle race previously (63%)
10/16: Had last race 3 months or longer ago (63%)
..9/16: Favourites won (2 joint) (56%)
..9/16: Won between 3-5 times over hurdles previously (56%)
..6/16: Went onto run in World Hurdle after winning this (1 won) (38%)
..4/12: Irish trained winners (33%)
..5/16: Went onto race in Champion Hurdle same season (4 of 5 finished 4th or better, Faugheen won both in 2014-15) (31%)
..5/16: Won hurdles race at Ascot previously (31%)
..4/16: Ridden by Barry Geraghty (25%)
..4/16: Raced at Cheltenham last time out (25%)
..3/16: Won by the Nicky Henderson stable (19%(
..2/16: Won by the Willie Mullins stable (13%)

The average SP in the last 10 runnings is 7/4
Lili Rockerfeller won the race in 2017
The 2004 & 2005 renewals were at Windsor

Timeform

This looks a good opportunity for IF THE CAP FITS to take the next step up the ladder. This progressive 6-y-o had the reopposing We Have A Dream behind in third when an excellent second in the Elite Hurdle at Wincanton on his reappearance and is taken to confirm his superiority over Nicky Henderson's charge. Old Guard is the only other one who can be seriously considered.

The Racing Horse Verdict:

1: IF THE CAP FITS 10/11 (WINNER)  2: WE HAVE A DREAM 9/4 (4th)

If The Cap Fits looks a good thing and we are so annoyed about missing the price on tis one. Quickly developed into a smart novice hurdler last term, winning all 3 starts. Excellent return to action when second in Elite at Wincanton and leading claims with further improvement likely.

***

3.15 Gerard Bertrand Hurst Handicap Chase (Class 2) 2m192y

11/12: Priced 8/1 or shorter  (92%)
11/12: Aged between 6 and 9yo (92%)
11/12: Won over fences over this trip (or further) before (92%)
..9/12: Finished in top 3 last time out (75%)
..9/12: Carried 11st or more (75%)
..9/12: Raced within the last 5 weeks (75%)
..8/12: Rated 142 or higher (67%)
..7/12: Won by Irish-bred horse (58%)
..6/12: Ran at either Ascot (3) or Cheltenham (3) last time out (50%)
..6/12: Raced at Ascot before (50%)
..6/12: Placed favourites (50%)
..4/12: Placed horses from the Paul Nicholls yard (33%)
..4/12: Won last time out (33%)
..3/12: Winning favourites (25%)
..3/12: Aged 6yo (25%)
..2/12: Trained by Paul Nicholls (17%)
..2/12: Trained by Gary Moore (17%)

Timeform

CYRNAME won 2 Grade 2s over fences as a novice last season and looks on a fair mark back in a handicap after a promising return. There wasn't much between Modus and Duke of Navan at Cheltenham last month and they head the dangers.

The Racing Horse Verdict:

1: OZZIE THE OSCAR 15/2 (5th)  2: SAN BENEDETO 12/1 (4th)  3: CYRNAME 5/1 (7th)

Ozzie The Oscar has won 3 of his 5 races over fences, jumping superbly when scoring at Warwick in May. Better for return when second at Exeter 18 days ago and set for a good season.

***

Today's Pacafi: click here

Proven mathematical laws are the governing force of horse racing betting. Consequently every bet we place is conceived then predicated from statistical analysis protected by a maths-based edge with perceived value attached. Our formula is simple because we are yet to be convinced that a complication of a system is proportional to profit. So what do we mean by a maths-based edge? It means finding something with a solid mathematical core, something historically profitable and something that is unlikely to change or suffer fatigue going forward. Then, if we can filter negative influences from the original proposal and provide a sound rationale for doing so, we can claim that betting edge.

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The absolute key to success in betting is the ability to identify value bet situations where the odds available are greater than the true chance of winning and then to have the discipline to methodically bet only when these situations arise. If this is done the laws of mathematics and probability dictate that in the long term, you will make a profit.

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