Pacafi (8 December 2018)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

 NEW KING 5.45 Kempton at 5/4

Ladbrokes Home Of The Odds Boost EBF Novice Stakes (Div I) (1m½f)

Pedigree: 8th foal; brother to Marine One, placed 1m4f-1m6f (inc AW; RPR 82), half-brother to 6 winners inc Marina Piccola (French 1m1f/1m4f inc Listed; 105), Wednaan (6f 2yo; 99) and Meduse Bleu (1m2f; 95); dam 7f-1m winner (inc Group 3; 106), out of 1m3f winner

THE RACING HORSE COMPOSITE

Trainer Form: 12-50 for 24% AW (10)
RPR: 84                        (10)                    
Optimum Ground: Standard       (10)
Optimum Distance: 1m           (10)
Jockey Booking: Rob Havlin     (10)

The Racing Horse Composite:    (50)
  
Next best: Marhaban 4/1 (stake-saver)
      Win Plc Run  RPR             Win Plc Run RPR
Life   0   0   1    80    GF-F      0   0   1   80
18/19  0   0   1    80    G         0   0   1   80
Dist   0   0   0     0    GS-HVY    0   0   0    0
Crs    0   0   0     0    6-15rnrs  0   0   1   80
Cl5    0   0   1    80    9.1-9.7   0   0   1   80

Walked out of the stalls on debut, race over!

New King was all the rage in the market but his backers soon knew their fate as he walked out the stalls and was detached from the rest early. The Frankel 2yo cot was allowed time to recover and then made good progress at halfway but could muster only the one-pace in the final 2f and made little impression. He's clearly held in some regard by connections and this will bring him on. We are reminded he started at 11/10 on debut in that Class 5 and today is the same grade but with a run under his belt.

Of his rivals

Fields Of Athenry made a winning start over track and trip but is penalised today and the runner-up Sunvisor has decent claims of turning the tables. Crimewave could go well down in trip today after finishing fifth at Newmarket in October. Mojave is a newcomer to note but Godolphin introduce Marbahan and he is very interesting being a 240,000gns brother to this year's French 2000 Guineas runner-up Hey Gaman and Charlie Appleby's colt could prove good enough at the first time of asking though has been asked to wear blinkers.

Charlie Appleby

An interesting fact is the trainer Charlie Appleby has run only one first-time-out juvenile in blinkers and that was a winner in Dubai in 2016. We have got to take Marbahan seriously hence the saver. Charlie Appleby has a 33% strike-rate at Wolverhampton since the start of the 2014 season. The trainer has a £15.46 profit to a £1 level stake profit with debutants and his jockey Adam Kirby has a 21% strike-rate at Wolverhampton.

Timeform

New King was held back by inexperience on debut at Lingfield 3 weeks ago, but his SP of 11/10 that day looks significant, and he's well worth another chance. Fields of Athenry made a winning debut over this C&D a fortnight ago but has a penalty to shoulder, so newcomer Marhaban is feared most.

Value

We have to acknowledge the poor start on debut and it is possible that could happen again, but given the breeding and confidence on debut and his Derby entry this colt must be better than Fields Of Athenry. We have a nasty draw to overcome but then so does the James Tate runner. We cannot know how good the Godolphin runner is so it is wise to have a saver at the 4/1 price bpg.

 The Racing Horse will update the results of our 2018 Pacafi's as soon as possible especially for those who use percentage of the bank staking which is our preferred option. Our results will show advised odds/best price guaranteed, result, stake, win or lose, balance and strike-rate. The results will be shown at 1pt win stakes. From 1st March 2018 we will use 1 to 2pt win staking when appropriate and most favourable including the use of stake-savers.

5  New King (S)        3.75  WIN   1.25  +2.50  +2.61  S/R 60%
4  Panmolle            1.80  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +0.11  S/R 50%
3  The Big Bite        1.91  WIN   1.00  +0.91  +1.11  S/R 67%
2  Come On Charlie     2.20  WIN   1.00  +1.20  +0.20  S/R 50%
1  Lust For Glory      2.20  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -1.00  S/R  0%

December SELECTIONS: 5  WIN: 3  LOSE: 2  S/R: 60%   PROFIT: +2.61pts

(21151)      FINISHED First or Second (80%)

19  Buster Valentine   2.37  WIN  1.00  +1.37  +0.66  S/R  47%
18  Fabiolla           2.10  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -0.71  S/R  44%
17  Chesterfield       1.57  WIN  1.00  +0.57  +0.29  S/R  47%
16  Politologue (S)    2.25  WIN  1.25  +1.00  -0.28  S/R  44%
15  Jadeerah           2.25  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -1.28  S/R  40%
14  Jalmoud            2.25  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -0.28  S/R  43%
13  Headman            1.57  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +0.72  S/R  46%
12  Silver River (S)   3.00  WIN  1.25  +1.75  +1.72  S/R  50%
11  Humanitarian       1.83  WIN  1.00  -0.83  -0.03  S/R  45%
10  Tiger Roll (S)     3.25  LOSE 1.25  -0.37  -0.86  S/R  40%
 9  Fearlessly         2.10  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -0.49  S/R  44%
 8  Batts Rock         1.72  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +0.51  S/R  50%
 7  Dolos              2.37  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +1.51  S/R  57%
 6  Windsor Avenue     1.40  WIN  1.00  +0.40  +2.51  S/R  67%
 5  Breath'ng Look (S) 3.75  LOSE 1.25  +0.12  +2.11  S/R  60%
 4  Jahbath            2.00  WIN  1.00  +1.00  +1.99  S/R  75%
 3  Cloudlam           1.72  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +0.99  S/R  67%
 2  Enable             1.62  WIN  1.00  +0.62  +1.99  S/R 100%
 1  Seddon (S)         2.62  WIN  1.25  +1.37  +1.37  S/R 100%

November SELECTIONS: 19  WIN: 9 LOSE:  10  S/R: 47%  PROFIT: +0.66pts

      (1131512434112221131)            FINISHED First or Second: 68.42%

22  Magna Grecia        3.00  WIN   1.25  +1.75  +0.49  S/R 50%
21  Fragrant Dawn       1.80  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -1.26  S/R 48%
20  Dr Sanderson        1.80  WIN   1.00  +0.80  -0.26  S/R 50%
19  Turjomaan           2.00  WIN   1.00  +1.00  -1.06  S/R 47%
18  Gifts Of Gold       1.72  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -2.06  S/R 44%
17  Cracksman           1.83  WIN   1.00  +0.83  -1.06  S/R 47%
16  Stradivarius        2.00  WIN   1.00  +1.00  -1.89  S/R 44%
15  Collodi             2.10  WIN   1.00  +1.10  -2.89  S/R 40%
14  Gentle Look         3.00  LOSE  1.20  -1.20  -3.99  S/R 36%
13  Dorah               2.00  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -2.79  S/R 38%
12  Desert Friend       2.00  WIN   1.00  +1.00  -1.79  S/R 42%
11  Too Darn Hot        2.00  WIN   1.00  +1.00  -2.79  S/R 36%
10  Mary Somerville     2.25  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -3.79  S/R 30%
 9  Cenotaph (S)        2.25  LOSE  1.20  -1.20  -2.79  S/R 33%
 8  Forest View         2.20  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -1.59  S/R 38%
 7  Huge Future         2.50  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -0.59  S/R 43%
 6  Royal Rendezvous    1.40  WIN   1.00  +0.40  +0.41  S/R 50%
 5  Maj Partnership (S) 2.67  WIN   1.30  +1.37  +0.01  S/R 40%
 4  Allmankind          1.44  WIN   1.00  +0.44  -1.36  S/R 25%
 3  Ambling (S)         2.37  LOSE  1.30  +0.20  -1.80  S/R  0%
 2  Caid Du Lin         1.57  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -2.00  S/R  0% 
 1  Gentle Look         1.91  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -1.00  S/R  0%

October SELECTIONS: 22  WIN: 11  LOSE: 11  S/R: 50%  PROFIT: +0.49pts

(4221113320112311121131)       FINISHED First or Second: 72.73%

20  Ten Sovereigns      1.67  WIN   1.00  +0.67  +7.61   S/R  65%
19  Buffalo River       1.67  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +6.94   S/R  63%
18  Jaunty Thor         1.67  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +7.94   S/R  67%
17  Gemini              4.00  WIN   1.00  +3.00  +8.94   S/R  71%
16  Finch Hatton        1.91  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +5.94   S/R  69%
15  Jamil               1.67  WIN   1.00  +0.67  +6.94   S/R  73%
14  Wadilsafa (S)       2.20  WIN   1.20  +1.00  +6.27   S/R  71% 
13  Kamikaze Lord       1.72  WIN   1.00  +0.72  +5.27   S/R  69% 
12  Too Darn Hot        1.53  WIN   1.00  +0.53  +4.55   S/R  67%
11  Sangarius           2.10  WIN   1.00  +1.10  +4.02   S/R  64%
10  Pilaster (S)        2.75  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +2.92   S/R  60%
 9  Equilateral         1.62  WIN   1.00  +0.62  +3.92   S/R  67%
 8  Carrie Des Champs   1.53  WIN   1.00  +0.53  +3.30   S/R  63%
 7  Harry Angel         2.25  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +2.77   S/R  57%
 6  Enable              1.67  WIN   1.00  +0.67  +3.77   S/R  67%
 5  Sextant             1.53  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +3.10   S/R  60%
 4  Floria Tosca        2.20  WIN   1.00  +1.20  +4.10   S/R  75% 
 3  Autumn War          2.87  WIN   1.00  +1.87  +2.90   S/R  67%
 2  Gleeful (S)         2.37  LOSE  1.25  +0.12  +1.03   S/R  50%
 1  Veracious           1.91  WIN   1.00  +0.91  +0.91   S/R 100%

September SELECTIONS: 20  WIN: 13  LOSE: 7  S/R: 65%  PROFIT: +7.61pts

(14112161131111131221)       FINISHED First or Second: 80.00%

18  Never Do Nothing    1.62  WIN   1.00  +0.62  +8.96   S/R  72%
17  Desert Frost        2.75  WIN   1.00  +1.31  +8.34   S/R  71%
16  Nick Lost           1.67  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +7.03   S/R  69%
15  Lah Ti Dar          2.00  WIN   1.00  +1.00  +8.03   S/R  73%
14  Collide             2.25  WIN   1.00  +1.25  +7.03   S/R  71%
13  Over The Guns       2.20  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +5.78   S/R  69%
12  Gustav Klimt        3.00  LOSE  1.30  -1.30  +6.78   S/R  75%
11  Alhakmha            1.57  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +8.08   S/R  82%
10  Concello            2.00  WIN   1.00  +1.00  +9.08   S/R  90%
 9  Beat That           1.53  WIN   1.00  +0.53  +8.08   S/R  89%
 8  Restive Spirit      3.00  WIN   1.00  +1.50  +7.55   S/R  88%
 7  Beatboxer (R4)      2.00  WIN   1.00  +0.90  +6.05   S/R  86%
 6  Mutawaffer          1.83  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +5.15   S/R  83%
 5  Magnetic Charm      2.75  WIN   1.00  +1.31  +6.15   S/R 100%
 4  Willie John         2.20  WIN   1.00  +1.20  +4.84   S/R 100%
 3  Battaash            2.25  WIN   1.00  +1.25  +3.64   S/R 100%
 2  Royal Plaza         1.72  WIN   1.00  +0.72  +2.39   S/R 100%
 1  Star Shield         2.67  WIN   1.00  +1.67  +1.67   S/R 100%

August SELECTIONS: 18  WIN: 13  LOSE: 5  S/R: 72%  PROFIT: +8.96pts

(111112111125411211)       First or second: 88.88%

19  Queen Medb          1.80  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +5.88   S/R  63%
18  L'Explora           1.44  WIN   1.00  +0.44  +6.88   S/R  67%
17  Kuwait Station      2.50  WIN   1.00  +1.50  +6.44   S/R  65%
16  Advanced Virgo      1.72  WIN   1.00  +0.72  +4.94   S/R  63%  
15  Major Partnership   1.72  WIN   1.00  +0.72  +4.22   S/R  60%
14  Raymond Tusk        2.75  WIN   1.00  +1.75  +3.49   S/R  58%
13  Hazapour            1.91  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +1.74   S/R  54%
12  Wicklow Brave       1.80  WIN   1.00  +0.80  +2.74   S/R  58%
11  Altra Vita          1.80  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +1.94   S/R  55% 
10  Inessa              1.80  WIN   1.00  +0.80  +2.94   S/R  60%
 9  Wissahickon         3.75  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +2.14   S/R  55%
 8  Fox Coach           2.50  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +3.14   S/R  63%
 7  Herculean           1.50  WIN   1.00  +0.50  +4.14   S/R  71%
 6  Thriving            2.10  WIN   1.00  +1.10  +3.64   S/R  67%  
 5  Ballydun Oscar      1.67  WIN   2.00  +1.34  +2.54   S/R  60%
 4  Alsimsaam           2.25  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +1.20   S/R  50%
 3  Altra Vita          1.80  WIN   2.00  +1.60  +2.20   S/R  67% 
 2  Construct (R4)      2.37  WIN   2.00  +2.60  +0.60   S/R  50%
 1  Forever Together    1.67  LOSE  2.00  -2.00  -2.00   S/R   0%

July SELECTIONS: 19  WIN: 12  LOSE: 7  S/R: 63%  PROFIT: +5.88pts

(211L111281313111112)       First or second: 78.95%

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