Racecourse Template for Cheltenham (1 January 2019)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

The Racing Horse offers our powerful RACECOURSE TEMPLATE, TRENDS and BETTING ADVICE for Cheltenham on Tuesday the 1st January 2019.  First we look at the performance of the different disciplines in both handicap and non-handicap National Hunt races. A cursory glance at the two sets of figures show a disparity that must be factored into thought processes! Assuming they have runners or rides we also highlight the trainers and jockeys most likely to be involved given current performances.

The Racecourse Templates are underpinned with Racing Trends. The profiling of races help sift the contenders from the pretenders and gives an overview of what type of entry combination are most likely to prosper. Equally, it reveals those carrying negative traits making it an essential tool/information for layers.

Finally we offer our astute betting advice. This trilateral approach offers absolute relevance and because of its importance/weight this feature is now part of the service we provide our members. We believe the pertinence of our information will help the reader find winners!

 Cheltenham Racecourse welcomes in 2019 with an excellent seven-race programme on New Year's Day, featuring three Graded contests and offering £260,000 in prize money. All racehorses become a year older on the day. There are four races covered including the Dipper Novices' Chase and Relkeel Hurdle.

The intention is to get 2019 off to a flyer! Good news in that the ground currently is good to soft and good in places. (GoingStick 7.0) (Rail movements: 12.15, 2.35 & 3.10 +113yds, 12.50 +126yds, 1.25 & 2.00 +95yds, 3.50 +75yds) (Partly cloudy)

FAVOURITES
NON-HANDICAP RACES (5 YEARS)       HANDICAP RACES (5 YEARS)

Hurdle:   51-114 for 45% (+5.93)   16-102 for 16% (-42.63)
Chase:    55-129 for 43% (-5.90)   20-121 for 17% (-35.92)
NHF:       7-27  for 26% (-3.00)    0-0 for  - 
Total:   113-270 for 42% (-2.96)   36-223 for 16% (-78.54)

TOP TRAINERS at Cheltenham for current season
Paul Nicholls:    4 wins from 24 for 17%  (-0.16)
Colin Tizzard:    4 wins from 34 for 12% (-15.30)
Ian Williams:     3 wins from  8 for 38%  (+5.00)
Gordon Elliott:   3 wins from 14 for 21%  (-0.50)
Fergal O'Brien:   3 wins from 20 for 15% (+22.00)
N Twiston-Davies: 3 wins from 28 for 11%  (-9.00)
Gary Moore:       2 wins from  7 for 29%  (+5.25)
Alan King:        2 wins from 10 for 20%  (+9.25)

TOP JOCKEYS at Cheltenham for current season
Richard Johnson:  7 wins from 29 for 24% (+11.25)
Harry Cobden:     4 wins from 22 for 18%  (-2.96)
Barry Geraghty:   3 wins from 14 for 21%  (-1.50)
Paddy Brennan:    3 wins from 21 for 14% (+20.75)
Charlie Hammond:  2 wins from  7 for 29%  (+9.00)
Wayne Hutchinson: 2 wins from  9 for 22%  (+9.83)
Tom O'Brien:      2 wins from 10 for 20%  (-2.50)

1.25 Cheltenham: BetBright Dipper Novices' Chase (Grade 2) 2m4f166y

16/16: Finished in the top 3 last time out (100%)
16/16: Raced within the last 6 weeks (100%)
15/16: Returned 6/1 or shorter (94%)
14/16: Ran in Cheltenham Festival race (1 winner) (88%)
13/16: Came from the top three in the betting (81%)
13/16: Won between 1-2 times over fences before (81%)
13/16: Raced within the last 4 weeks (81%)
12/16: Won over fences at 2m3f or further before (75%)
12/16: Aged between 6-8yo (75%)
10/16: Placed favourites (63%)
..9/16: Irish bred (56%)
..9/16: Won last time out (56%)
..8/16: Won over hurdles at Cheltenham before (50%)
..7/16: Returned 5/4 or shorter (44%)
..7/16: Ran at Sandown or Cheltenham last time out (44%)
..7/16: Winning favourites (44%)
..6/16: Aged 7yo (38%)
..2/16: Won by the Pipe stable (13%)
..2/16: Ridden by Barry Geraghty (13%)
..1/16: Won Arkle Chase that year (My Way De Solzen, 2007) (6%)

The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 4/1

TIMEFORM

DEFI DU SEUIL proved a totally different proposition on the back of his chasing debut when readily scoring at Exeter last month, his jumping looking all the more assured. He can follow up with better to come despite conceding weight all round. A host of last season's leading novice hurdlers are in opposition though, with On The Blind Side and Black Op feared most on this occasion.

THE RACING HORSE VERDICT:

1: DEFI DU SEUIL 11/4 (2nd)  2: BLACK OP 10/3 (3rd)

The selection was an impressive winner of a very competitive novice chase at Exeter last month, where he had the subsequent Grade 1 runner-up Topofthegame back in second. He stays 19f, acts on soft going and is capable of better still as a chaser. 

On The Blind Side makes his chase debut today but he was well held by Black Op in a novice hurdle at Aintree in April and might need the run so was opposed quite quickly...

***

2.00 Cheltenham: Download The Betbright App Handicap Chase (Grade 3) 2m4f166y

16/16: Ran over fences at Cheltenham before (100%)
15/16: Raced within the last 2 months (94%)
14/16: Won at least twice over fences before (88%)
14/16: French (5) or Irish (9) bred (88%)
13/16: Won over 2m4f or further (fences) before (81%)
13/16: Raced within the last 4 weeks (81%)
13/16: Priced 9/1 or shorter (81%)
12/16: Rated 138 or higher (75%)
11/16: Aged 8yo or older (69%)
11/16: Carried 11st 0lbs or less (69%)
11/16: Unplaced last time out (69%)
10/16: Won over fences at Cheltenham before (63%)
10/16: Ran at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (63%)
..9/16: Ran at Cheltenham last time out (56%)
..9/16: Unplaced favourites (56%)
..8/16: Came from the top 3 in the betting (50%)
..4/16: Winning favourites (25%)
..3/16: Won by the Nigel Twiston-Davies yard (19%)
..1/16: Went onto win Ryanair Chase at Cheltenham (6%)

Ballyhill (9/1) won the race in 2018
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 8/1

TIMEFORM

GIVE ME A COPPER lacks the experience of some of his rivals here but, given his pedigree and previous impressions, he has the potential to be a top-notch chaser and, as such, is worth the chance to defy a mark of 145 despite returning from a lengthy absence. Divine Spear is a danger along with Newbury-scorer Aso.

THE RACING HORSE VERDICT:

1: ASO 9/2 (WINNER)  2: BALLYHILL 7/1 (3rd)  3: DUSTIN DES MOTTES 7/1

Aso has reached the frame in valuable events around here in the past and put up a bold display to land a 6-runner event at Newbury on his return a month ago. Solid claims again despite 8 lb rise. Jockey Charlie Deutsch told us: "He felt fairly fit and ready at Newbury, so I don't think he'd have necessarily come on for it that much. I suppose his 8lb rise is fair. I don't know if we beat a lot, but he did it well and won a long way. I'd have no concerns with the ground."

***.

2.35 Cheltenham: Simplify Horse Racing Selections With Betfinder At Betbright Handicap Hurdle (Class 2) 3m

14/15: Raced within the last 4 weeks (93%)
13/15: Aged between 5-7yo (87%)
12/15: Raced at Cheltenham before (80%)
11/15: Won at least twice over hurdles in the UK before (73%)
11/15: Won hurdles race over at least 2m4f before (73%)
10/15: Rated 130 or higher (67%)
10/15: Unplaced last time out (67%)
..9/15: Ran in race at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (60%)
..9/15: Carried 10st 9lbs or more (60%)
..9/15: Came from outside the top 3 in the betting (60%)
..8/15: Unplaced favourites (53%)
..8/15: Ran at Cheltenham last time out (53%)
..6/15: Won over at least 3m (hurdles) before (40%)
..5/15: French bred (33%)
..4/15: Won over hurdles at Cheltenham before (27%)
..3/15: Won last time out (20%)
..2/15: Won by the Pipe stable (13%)
..2/15: Winning favourites (13%)
..1/15: Won by a mare (7%)
..1/15: Won World Hurdle that season (Big Buck’s 2009) (7%)

The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 15/2

TIMEFORM

A good staying handicap. 2015 Coral Cup winner AUX PTITS SOINS shaped as if retaining plenty of ability on his return for new handler Dan Skelton at Newbury and is well treated if he can build on that. Vive Le Roi and De Name Evades Me were ahead of him on that occasion and ought to figure again. The thriving Jersey Bean and the unexposed Chameron are others who could have a big part to play.

THE RACING HORSE VERDICT:

1: JERSEY BEAN 7/1   2: SHALAKAR 8/1  3: AUX PTIT SOINS 11/2 (WINNER)

Useful effort from Jersey Bean when completing hat-trick at Newbury (3m) in November and lost little in defeat when chasing home a subsequent winner at Market Rasen since. Up another 6 lb but very much respected and a solid place chance at the very least!

***.

3.10 Cheltenham: Dornan Engineering Relkeel Hurdle (Class 2) 2m4f110y

13/14: Ran in race at Cheltenham Festival (0 winners) (93%)
13/14: Won by a French (5) or Irish (8) bred (93%)
12/14: Raced within the last 6 weeks (86%)
11/14: Raced at Cheltenham before (79%)
10/14: Priced 11/2 or shorter (71%)
10/14: Won at least 4 times over hurdles before (71%)
..9/14: Came from top 3 in the betting (64%)
..9/14: Won at Cheltenham before (64%)
..9/14: Won over at least 2m4f (hurdles) before (64%)
..8/14: Ran in World Hurdle later that season (57%)
..6/14: Raced at Cheltenham last time out (43%)
..6/14: Winning favourites (43%)
..5/14: Won last time out (36%)
..4/14: Trained by Nicky Henderson (29%)
..4/14: Ridden by Barry Geraghty (29%)
..2/14: Trained by the Pipe stable (14%)

Wholestone (9/4 fav) won the race in 2018
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 4/1

TIMEFORM

WHOLESTONE's poor run at Newbury can be excused and he can repeat last year's trick and bounce back with victory in this Grade 2 for Nigel Twiston-Davies. Clyne could be a danger if keeping the mistakes down, while Midnight Shadow is the improver in the field.

THE RACING HORSE VERDICT:

1: WHOLESTONE 11/8 (2nd)  2: CLYNE 6/1

Wholestone finished nine lengths ahead of Old Guard when winning this last year and made a winning reappearance at Aintree, though showed less resolution when disappointing at Newbury in a race in which Clyne, who re-opposes on the same terms, finished second. Wholestone is arguably better over 2m4f. His last three wins have come over this trip, twice over course and distance including an impressive triumph in this Grade 2 last year, and the forecast good to soft ground should be fine!

***

 Today's Pacafi: click here

 Disclaimer
Our information and betting advice is for educational purposes only. Please exercise caution when acting upon our advice and remember that gambling carries risk. No liability is taken by the site or product owner following any of the information given or sold to you. Betting always involves a level of risk and you should never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *