Pacafi (2 January 2019)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

MILITARY LAW at 5/4

BETWAY HEED YOUR HUNCH HANDICAP (Class 4)

Pedigree: 900,000gns vendor Y); 7th foal; brother to 6f 2yo winner Wednaan (RPR 99), closely related to 1m2f AW winner Adalene (77), half-brother to four winners notably Marina Piccola (French 1m4f Listed; 105); dam 7f-1m winner (inc Group 3; 106) 

The Racing Horse Composite

Trainer Form: 3-6 for 50%   (10)
RPR: 96                     (10)                                           
Optimum Ground: Good/Std    (10)
Optimum Distance: 1m2f      (10)
Jockey Booking: Rob Havlin  (10)

The Racing Horse Composite: (50)
  
Next best: Michele Strogoff 7/2
      Win Plc Run  RPR             Win Plc Run RPR
Life   1   1   3    90    GF-F      0   1   1   90
18/19  0   0   0     0    G         0   1   1   90
Dist   0   0   0     0    GS-HVY    1   0   1    0
Crs    0   0   0     0    6-15rns   0   1   2   90
Cl4    1   0   1     0    9.8 to 10 0   1   1   90

Ran a fine comeback race, more to come

Military Law looks a promising individual and having cost 900,000gns one could expect that. The John Gosden 4yo has only raced three times yet achieved the same rating as his main rivals and looks certain to progress on the AW this winter. The Dubawi gelding was second of 8 at Lingfield over 1m2f in a class 5 novice 21 days ago when carrying a penalty and was particularly weak in the market drifting from 1/2 out to 11/8. He still ran a fine comeback race against a more experienced rival after being off the track for 411 days. He has the scope to take advantage of Michele Strogoff who will almost certainly lead.

Delighted with Military Law - Thady Gosden

We are reminded of what Thady Gosden said in October 2017 after the colt won a class 4 novice in soft ground over a mile as a 2yo: "That was a competitive enough race and the second looks a nice horse, so we're delighted with Military Law, who will be put away for next season now." It showed the stable thought something of him then and watching the race again we noted he was headed inside the final furlong but battled back to lead, staying on well. He has since been gelded and today's distance should not be a problem though we expect him to want 1m4f sooner rather than later.

Impressive trainer form

John Gosden has won 3 times from his last 6 runners and we can expect our bet to be ready today. One could easily imagine the trainer having downtime but December saw 12 wins from 35 entries for 34% and a level-stake profit of +8.35. 2018 showed 15 winners from 52 runners for 29% at Wolverhampton and that matches his all-time standard for the course which is 116-410 for 28%, we can expect more of the same this year. Military Law will be well ridden by Robert Havlin whose strike rate on favourites is 38% and this looks a first winning combination for 2019. We will stand corrected but we believe the combination have yielded 399 winners so this could be number 400 for Rob Havlin? The total has come from 2035 rides and a 20% strike-rate.

Of his rivals

Michele Strogoff bids for a hat-trick of course and distance wins having made all on both recent occasions. He is up 6lb snd would be a danger if allowed to dominate but the Pacafi has early pace and drawn just inside this main danger and can follow him through early to take a pitch. This Girl steps up in trip having placed over a mile here when handicapping for the first time but Illustrissime drops back down in distance having run well since winning over 1m4f at Catterick back in October.

Timeform

MILITARY LAW made an encouraging return from over a year on the sidelines at Lingfield 3 weeks ago and can make up for lost time now switching to handicap company. Illustrissime and Michele Strogoff arrive in top form and are the pair likely to give John Gosden's charge most to do.

Value

The Michael Appleby runner has to be beaten and will try and burn off the Pacafi but this should help the Pacafi making it a true run race. Having had 6 different trainers with 49 runs (7 wins) so far the 6yo Michele Strogoff is clearly in the form of his life so looks booked for second place unless jockey Ali Rawlinson goes off too fast and gets collared in the last 100 yards by Illustrissime. We note William Hill offer 11/8 (06.42) and the price looks big to us! Military Law must surely start closer to even money or shorter than that if having a good paddock and given our horse stayed on over a mile as a 2yo on soft ground we should hit the line hard after a good pace!

~

Other

A horrible start to 2019 when Ontheropes did not show up. The drift from 10/11 to 13/8 told us the main story before the race even started and this now looks a very poor selection, and not what we wanted! There was nothing left entering the final furlong and wasn't persevered with by his rider. This was very disappointing but he is surely better than this and he clearly needed his first run of the season.

***

 The Racing Horse will update the results of our 2018 Pacafi's as soon as possible especially for those who use percentage of the bank staking which is our preferred option. Our results will show advised odds/best price guaranteed, result, stake, win or lose, balance and strike-rate. The results will be shown at 1pt win stakes. From 1st March 2018 we will use 1 to 2pt win staking when appropriate and most favourable including the use of stake-savers. 

 2  Military Law   2.50  WIN   1.00  +1.50  +0.50  S/R 50%
 1  Ontheropes     2.62  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -1.00  S/R  0%

January SELECTIONS: 2  WIN: 1  LOSE: 1  S/R: 50%   PROFIT: +0.50pts

(61)      FINISHED First or Second (50%)

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