Racecourse Templates for Sandown (5 January 2019)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

The Racing Horse offers our powerful RACECOURSE TEMPLATE, TRENDS and BETTING ADVICE for Sandown on Saturday the 5th January 2019.  First we look at the performance of the different disciplines in both handicap and non-handicap National Hunt races. A cursory glance at the two sets of figures show a disparity that must be factored into thought processes! Assuming they have runners or rides we also highlight the trainers and jockeys most likely to be involved given current performances.

The Racecourse Templates are underpinned with Racing Trends. The profiling of races help sift the contenders from the pretenders and gives an overview of what type of entry combination are most likely to prosper. Equally, it reveals those carrying negative traits making it an essential tool/information for layers.

Finally we offer our astute betting advice. This trilateral approach offers absolute relevance and because of its importance/weight this feature is now part of the service we provide our members. We believe the pertinence of our information will help the reader find winners! Because we have such a small sample at the track for this season we use 2017/18 figures to gauge the landscape etc...

The Timeform view and our betting advice will appear here tomorrow at around 6pm. We await confirmation of the ground conditions, as we went to post the chase course was good to soft and soft in places whilst the hurdles course is soft and good to soft in places in the back straight. 

UPDATE 10.01: Hurdle course - SOFT, Good to Soft in places back straight; Chase course - GOOD TO SOFT, Soft in places, Good in places back straight (GoingStick: Chs 6.0, Hdl 5.4) (Partly cloudy)

FAVOURITES
NON-HANDICAP RACES (5 YEARS)       HANDICAP RACES (5 YEARS)

Hurdle:   29-59  for 49% (+1.80)    17-79  for 22% (-10.67)
Chase:    21-37  for 57% (+9.18)    24-80  for 30%  (-1.10)
NHF:       1-9   for 11% (-6.13)     0-0   for  - 
Total:    51-105 for 49% (+4.86)    41-159 for 26% (-11.77)

TOP 5 TRAINERS at Sandown for 2017/18
Nicky Henderson: 12 wins from 33 for 36%  (+0.39)
N Twiston-Davies: 5 wins from 20 for 25% (+31.00)
Charlie Longsdon: 3 wins from 17 for 18% (+24.00)
Gary Moore:       3 wins from 29 for 10% (-16.16)
Paul Nicholls:    3 wins from 37 for  8% (-22.50)

TOP 4 JOCKEYS at Sandown for 2017/18
Nico de Boinville: 7 wins from 24 for 29%  (-3.17)
Daryl Jacob:       5 wins from 16 for 31% (+17.17)
Jamie Moore:       5 wins from 21 for 24%  (+4.33)
Sean Houlihan:     3 wins from  6 for 50% (+26.25)
OTHER RELEVANT INFORMATION
Jamie Moore: 23% at Sandown (Honorable)
Daryl Jacob: 45% on hurdling favs (Torpillo)
Paul Nicholls: 28% with chasers up to 2m3f (Capeland)
N Henderson: 30% at Sandown since 2014/15 (Darius Des Bois)
Ruby Walsh: 48% on hurdling favs (Laurina) WIN
Ruby Walsh: 42% when just one hurdle ride at meeting

12.45 Sandown: Unibet Handicap Chase (Class 2) 2m

12/12: Won over at least 2m (chase) previously (100%)
11/12: Ran within the last 2 months (92%)
11/12: Priced 17/2 or shorter (92%)
11/12: Winning distance – 2 lengths or more (92%)
10/12: Favourites placed (83%)
..9/12: From the top 3 in the betting (75%)
..9/12: Officially rated 135 or higher (75%)
..9/12: Won between 1-4 times over fences in the UK previously (75%)
..8/12: Never raced at Sandown (67%)
..8/12: Aged either 8 or 9yo (67%)
..8/12: Carried 11st or more in weight (67%)
..7/12: Irish bred (58%)
..7/12: Winning Favourites
..6/12: Unplaced last time out (50%)
..6/12: Ran in season’s Champion Chase at Cheltenham Festival (50%)
..4/12: Trained by Paul Nicholls (33%)
..4/12: Ran at season’s Cheltenham Festival (33%)
..3/12: Ridden by Ruby Walsh (25%)
..3/12: Ran at Cheltenham last time out (25%)
..3/12: Won their last race (25%)

Trainer Philip Hobbs has won 2 of the last 3 runnings
Speredek won the race 12 months ago
The average winning SP in the last 7 running is 9/2

TIMEFORM

CAPELAND has thrived since sent chasing and, although he's been hit with a rise for his latest success, there's still every chance he can extend his unbeaten run in this relatively uncompetitive affair. Poker School heads the dangers with Yorkist not totally ruled out for all his mark leaves little room for manoeuvre.

THE RACING HORSE VERDICT:

1: CAPELAND 6/5 (2nd)  2: POKER SCHOOL 11/4 (3rd)

Capeland is much improved this term and seeking a fourth win of the campaign. He’s gone up another 7lb since Ludlow last month but is the type that always seem to pull out more. 

.***

2.25 Sandown: Unibet Tolworth Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m110y

30/30: Aged 7yo or younger (100%)
13/14: Won over at least 2m (hurdles) before (93%)
13/14: Placed 1st or 2nd in their last race (93%)
13/14: Raced within the last 6 weeks (93%)
12/14: Won by a horse aged either 5 or 6yo (86%)
12/14: Priced  5/1 or shorter (86%)
11/14: Won between 1-2 times over hurdles previously (79%)
11/14: Came from the top three in the market (79%)
20/26: Won by 5 or 6yos (77%)
10/14: Won last time out (71%)
10/14: Placed favourites (71%)
..9/14: Winners ran at season’s Cheltenham Festival (64%)
..9/14: Won by an Irish bred horse (64%)
..7/14: Winning Favourites (50%)
..7/14: Won by a horse aged 5yo (50%)
..4/14: Won by the Paul Nicholls stable (29%)
..4/14: Ran at Sandown (2) or Newbury (2) last time out (29%)
..3/14: Won by the Nicky Henderson stable (21%)
..3/14: Ridden by jockey Barry Geraghty (21%)
..3/14: Ridden by jockey Ruby Walsh (21%)
..2/14: Ran at Sandown before (14%)
..2/14: Won by the Jonjo O’Neill stable (14%)
..2/14: Won Supreme Novices’ Hurdle that season (14%)
..1/14: Won Neptune Investment Hurdle that season  (7%)

The average winning SP in the last 8 runnings is 4/1

TIMEFORM

ELIXIR DE NUTZ had his latest success boosted no end when the runner-up shot clear to win readily in a listed race since, so he's worth a chance to land the hat-trick stepping into Grade 1 company. Impressive Newbury scorer Rathhill is an obvious danger provided the race doesn't turn into a tactical affair, while both of Paul Nicholls' representatives are worthy of their place.

THE RACING HORSE VERDICT:

1: ELIXIR DE NUTZ 3/1 (WINNER)  2: RATHHILL 5/4 (Bet365 and Unibet) 

Elixir De Nutz had the form of his latest victory at Cheltenham franked when the runner-up bolted up in a Listed contest at that track on New Year’s Day, beating a Henderson hot-pot. Colin Tizzard won this two years ago with Finian’s Oscar and he looks to have another top-class prospect on his hands. Should probably be favourite and looks to be the value.

***.

3.35 Sandown: 32red.com Handicap Hurdle (Class 2)


11/13: Ran within the last 8 weeks (85%)
11/13: Won over at least 2m1f (hurdles) previously (85%)
11/13: Aged between 5-7yo (85%)
11/13: Won between 1-3 times over hurdles in the UK before (85%)
10/13: Unplaced last time out (77%)
..8/13: Carried 10st 12lbs or less in weight (62%)
..6/13: Ran at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners) (46%)
..6/13: Officially rated between 127 and 132 (46%)
..6/13: Priced a double-figure price in the betting (46%)
..6/13: Raced at Ascot (3) or Cheltenham (3) last time out (46%)
..5/13: Finished unplaced in a Cheltenham Festival race that season (38%)
..5/13: From the top 3 in the betting (38%)
..4/13: Irish bred (31%)
..4/13: Trained by Nicky Henderson (31%)
..3/13: Won last time out (23%)
..2/13: Trained by Oliver Sherwood (15%)
..2/13: Trained by the Pipe stable (15%)
..2/13: Trained by Venetia Williams (15%)
..1/13: Winning favourites (8%)

Rayvin Black won the race in 2015 & 2016
The average winning SP in the last 7 runnings is 7/1
2002 & 2003 runnings were staged at Ascot

TIMEFORM

A fairly-useful handicapper on the level, THISTIMENEXTYEAR surpassed his previous hurdles form and arguably should have won when just touched off over C&D last month, looking in control before faltering run-in. He may yet have more to offer in this sphere and earns the vote. Court Royale and the admirable Our Merlin are next best.

THE RACING HORSE VERDICT:

1: OUR MERLIN 9/2 (2nd)  2: THISTIMENEXTYEAR 9/2 (general)

Our Merlin is a rapid improver in handicaps last term, winning 3 times. Better with each outing this campaign, adding to his tally under a good ride at Wincanton (15.3f) last month. Further progress not ruled out. We are opposing the current favourite.

***

 Today's Pacafi: click here

 Disclaimer
Our information and betting advice is for educational purposes only. Please exercise caution when acting upon our advice and remember that gambling carries risk. No liability is taken by the site or product owner following any of the information given or sold to you. Betting always involves a level of risk and you should never bet more than you can afford to lose.

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