Racecourse Templates for Chepstow (7 January 2019)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Tagged , , , , , | Leave a comment

The Racing Horse offers our Racecourse Template for Chepstow tomorrow. We look at the performance of the different disciplines in both handicap and non-handicap National Hunt races at the course. A cursory glance at the two sets of figures show a disparity that must be factored into thought processes! Assuming they have runners or rides we also highlight the trainers and jockeys most likely to be involved given current performances.

As we post this blog we notice trainer Evan Williams has 16 entries and the suggestion is to take his actual runners very seriously. He had a great win double on Welsh Grand National Day so his horses are in form. At this course his figures show 61 winners from 495 runners for 12% and a level-stake profit of +44.78pts. The figures are helped by those of his current season which shows 5-26 for 19% (+59.00)

January Sale Raceday has six races and the going at Chepstow is expected to be good to soft (soft in places).

CHEPSTOW RACECOURSE TEMPLATE

FAVOURITES
NON-HANDICAP RACES (5 YEARS)       HANDICAP RACES (5 YEARS)

Hurdle:   58-125 for 46%  (+0.81)   34-125 for 27% (-17.51)
Chase:    11-27  for 41%  (-6.04)   49-147 for 33%  (+8.26)
NHF:      16-46  for 35%  (-7.46)    0-0 for  - 
Total:    85-198 for 43% (-12.69)   83-272 for 31%  (-9.25)

TOP TRAINERS at Chepstow for current season
Paul Nicholls: 9 wins from 24 for 38% (+14.91)
Evan Williams: 5 wins from 26 for 19% (+59.00)
Colin Tizzard: 4 wins from 22 for 18% (+11.50)
Philip Hobbs:  4 wins from 28 for 14%  (+6.33)
Dan Skelton:   3 wins from 19 for 16% (+13.00)

TOP JOCKEYS at Chepstow for current season
Harry Cobden:     7 wins from 23 for 30% (+24.00)
Richard Johnson:  6 wins from 24 for 25% (+19.50)
Adam Wedge:       4 wins from 23 for 17% (+56.50)
S Twiston-Davies: 3 wins from 15 for 20%  (+0.41)
Bryony Frost:     2 wins from  6 for 33%  (+1.25)
OTHER INFORMATION
22%: Richard Johnson strike-rate at Chepstow
17%: Kim Baily hurdling debutants (SEA STORY)
40%: Aidan Coleman riding hurdle favs (SEVARANO)
22%: Kerry Lee strike-rate mid season (MURPHY'S NAILS)
46%: Nico de Boinville riding hurdle favs (DICKIE DIVER)
22%: Philip Hobbs strike-rate mid season (CAPTAINS RUN)

Race 1: TIMEFORM

QUEEN'S MAGIC took a step forward over hurdles when fourth on handicap debut at Cheltenham, and given her bumper ability, she should be up to winning a race like this from her current mark. She may have most to fear from a couple of handicap debutantes in Empreinte Reconce and Sea Story.

THE RACING HORSE VERDICT:

1 EMPREINTE RECONCE 9/2 (2nd)  2 QUEEN'S MAGIC 4/1  3 SEA STORY 4/1 (Bet365 and Ladbrokes)

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Race 2: TIMEFORM

This should be a good opening for SEVARANO, who was useful in bumpers last season and has taken pretty well to hurdling with a brace of runner-up efforts so far. Most of these look long-term projects, but Three County's and Melchior King are capable of making their presence felt.

THE RACING HORSE VERDICT:

1 SEVARANO 4/6 (4th)  2 MELCHIOR KING 5/1 (WINNER)  3 SAINT DE VASSY 8/1 (2nd)

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Race 3: TIMEFORM

TOP AND DROP might have found his latest run coming too soon and is worth another chance to build on his good run here. Tikkapick and Sandhurst Lad head the dangers

THE RACING HORSE VERDICT:

1 SUTTER'S MILL 3/1  2 SANDHURST LAD 4/1 (3rd)  3 TIKKAPICK 7/1

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Race 4: TIMEFORM 

A wide-margin winner of his sole start between the flags, DICKIE DIVER is a potentially exciting recruit to this sphere for his top connections and the hint should be taken if there's confidence behind him in the betting. Useful-chaser Walk In The Mill may find things happening too quickly on this belated hurdles debut and a bigger threat is likely to be posed by Dashel Drasher.

THE RACING HORSE VERDICT

1 DICKIE DIVER 7/4 (NR)  2 CLONDAW ANCHOR 8/1 (NR)  3 TARADA 8/1 (2nd)

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Race 5: TIMEFORM

AIR DE ROCK was likely to have won had he not departed 2 out on his second start over fences at Ffos Las in November and is taken to make amends. Lickpenny Larry ran well on his return and is next best ahead of Doc Carver

THE RACING HORSE VERDICT

1 AIR DE ROCK 15/8 (2nd)  2 DARK INVADER 10/1

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Race 6: TIMEFORM

It's hard to get away from Cloudy Glen who is able to race off the same mark as when leading from pillar to post on his recent seasonal reappearance under this rider at Haydock. Clear next best is the 4yo Caswell Bay, who has been handed a fair-looking opening mark judged on what he's shown in a couple of juvenile hurdles. The down-in-class Friday Night Light is another to consider.

THE RACING HORSE VERDICT

1 CASWELL BAY 11/2 (Betfair)  2 CLOUDY GLEN 5/6 (SkyBet and Betbright)  3 FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHT 12/1 (Betfair and Paddy Power)

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CHEPSTOW has 32 meetings annually, both flat and jump racing, you can be sure there will be a fixture to suit you, your friends and family.

Telephone: 01291 622 260 and Fax: 01291 627 061

Email: info@chepstow-racecourse.co.uk

Address: Chepstow Racecourse, Chepstow, Monmouthshire, NP16 BE

Children aged 17 & under go FREE

PARKING IS FREE also.

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  Today's Pacafi: click here

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