Pacafi (9 January 2019)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

COURT HOUSE at Evens

Betway Conditions Stakes 1m4f (Class 2)

Pedigree: E200,000 Y; fourth foal; half-brother to winners Cape Factor (6f-7f 2yo inc AW/Listed; RPR 100), Benzanno (1m-8.5f Flat inc AW; 100/2m hurdle) and Hidden Belief (7f; 82); unraced dam out of Listed-placed 5f winner

The Racing Horse Composite

Trainer Form: 12-35 for 34% (10)
RPR: 119                    (10)                                      
Optimum Ground: Standard    (10)
Optimum Distance: 1m4f      (10)
Jockey Booking: Rob Havlin  (10)

The Racing Horse Composite: (50)
  
Next best: Scarlet Dragon
      Win Plc Run  RPR             Win Plc Run RPR
Life   2   3   8   117    GF-F      1   2   5  117
2019   0   0   0     0    G         2   2   6  117
Dis    0   0   0     0    GS-HVY    0   1   0  107
Crs    1   0   1   103    upto5rns  2   0   3  103
Cl2    0   2   3   117    9.1-9.7   2   3   7  109  

Sharper today with conditions to suit

Court House steps up in distance after having his first start since June when failing to get a clear run in a decent handicap at Wolverhampton a fortnight ago but will be sharper here and should take advantage of the favourable terms. The 4yo Dawn Approach colt has won twice on the AW (once on Polytrack) and was made the 5/4 favourite for his reappearance in a class 2 handicap where he raced handily enough but got caught in a pocket from the turn in and could only keep on one-paced when he got daylight. He shaped as though he would improve for both the outing and for a step up in distance, which he gets on this occasion.

Best form and most progressive

This €200,000 yearling is bred for the AW and on all evidence looks a Listed winner on the surface. Court House tends to fall out of the gate and this has proved costly to date from a tactical standpoint, evidently he pings the gates at home! Although just three runners he has drawn stall one so has the rail and the best place to be and his form in early 2018 shows small fields on the AW are no issue. As regards strength of form his second place in a Newmarket Listed race in May to subsequent dual Group 2 winner Old Persian reads particularly well. Furthermore, the Pacafi is clearly the most progressive horse in the race yet receives 6lbs from Kasperenko and 3lbs from Scarlet Dragon.

Gosden continues in great form

John Gosden continues to have his horses in great form. December showed 12 winners from 35 runners for a 34% strike-rate (+8.35) and January he is now 2-6 for 33%. Historically the trainer has winners in January and February and we will be looking closely at his runners. Looking at his record it is hard to find quiet months and knowing when he gives his horses their injections, we suspect it is late February/early March but we do not know that.

Of his rivals

Kasperenko caused a surprise when landing a Listed contest at Kempton on his latest start but has to give weight all round so the main threat could well prove to be Scarlet Dragon on his third to Wissahickon here over 1m2f last month. The latter was placed in Listed company behind the smart Wissahickon over 1m2f here last month so trainer John Gosden and will know where he stands with Scarlet Dragon (ran 31 times), who has not won a race since October 2016.

Timeform

Not a lot between the trio but COURT HOUSE has done all his racing over shorter trips and his turn of foot could be a big weapon were this to turn tactical. Scarlet Dragon is more straightforward than Kasperenko so is feared most.

Value

Three runner affairs are usually about tactics and that can scupper perceived value, however, on this occasion we seem to have the pace in the race angle covered. We were happy to take evens about a potential Listed winner and rate the colts chances at closer to 8/11. If there was a negative, one could query the 1m4f distance given breeding, but Court House has looked as though this will be perfect for him on a fast AW track.

***

 The Racing Horse will update the results of our 2018 Pacafi's as soon as possible especially for those who use percentage of the bank staking which is our preferred option. Our results will show advised odds/best price guaranteed, result, stake, win or lose, balance and strike-rate. The results will be shown at 1pt win stakes. From 1st March 2018 we will use 1 to 2pt win staking when appropriate and most favourable including the use of stake-savers. 

 6  Court House (R4) 2.00  WIN   1.00  +0.85  +1.88  S/R 67%
 5  Queens Cave      1.67  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +1.03  S/R 60%
 4  Torpillo         1.33  WIN   1.00  +0.33  +2.03  S/R 75%
 3  Reeth            2.20  WIN   1.00  +1.20  +1.70  S/R 67%
 2  Military Law     2.50  WIN   1.00  +1.50  +0.50  S/R 50%
 1  Ontheropes       2.62  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -1.00  S/R  0%

January SELECTIONS: 6  WIN: 4  LOSE: 2  S/R: 67%   PROFIT: +1.88pts

(6111P1)      FINISHED First or Second (66.67%)

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