The Racing Horse offers our powerful RACECOURSE TEMPLATE, TRENDS and BETTING ADVICE for Warwick on Saturday the 12th January 2019 and this first draft will be completed before 6pm on Friday. First we look at the performance of the different disciplines in both handicap and non-handicap National Hunt races. A cursory glance at the two sets of figures show a disparity that must be factored into thought processes! Assuming they have runners or rides we also highlight the trainers and jockeys most likely to be involved given current performances.
The Racecourse Templates are underpinned with Racing Trends. The profiling of races help sift the contenders from the pretenders and gives an overview of what type of entry combination are most likely to prosper. Equally, it reveals those carrying negative traits making it an essential tool/information for layers.
Finally we offer our astute betting advice. This trilateral approach offers absolute relevance and because of its importance/weight this feature is now part of the service we provide our members. We believe the pertinence of our information will help the reader find winners!
Please note the huge disparity between non-handicap and handicap races. For example, favourites in non-handicap hurdle races are 36% more likely to win than in handicap races. FACT!
WARWICK RACECOURSE TEMPLATE (Going is good)
FAVOURITES NON-HANDICAP RACES (5 YEARS) HANDICAP RACES (5 YEARS) Hurdle: 67-119 for 56% (+14.40) 26-131 for 20% (-63.67) Chase: 28-46 for 61% (+4.10) 50-144 for 35% (-6.45) NHF: 22-57 for 39% (+4.63) 0-0 for - Total: 117-222 for 53% (+23.14) 76-275 for 28% (-70.11) TOP 5 TRAINERS at Warwick this season Nicky Henderson: 9 wins from 25 for 36% (+23.49) Dan Skelton: 9 wins from 38 for 24% (-14.13) Alan King: 5 wins from 21 for 24% (+5.10) Jonjo O'Neill: 5 wins from 25 for 20% (+39.50) Philip Hobbs: 4 wins from 21 for 19% (+9.75) TOP 5 JOCKEYS at Warwick this season Harry Skelton: 8 wins from 29 for 28% (-6.13) Richard Johnson: 7 wins from 32 for 22% (+7.75) Nico de Boinville: 6 wins from 16 for 38% (+26.33) W Hutchinson: 5 wins from 20 for 25% (-4.10) Tom O'Brien: 4 wins from 18 for 22% (+13.50)
1.50 Warwick: McCoy Contractors 2019 Construction News Award Finalist Hampton Novices´ Chase (Listed Race) 3m
11/11: Returned 5/1 or shorter (100%)
11/11: Won between 0-2 times over fences (100%)
11/11: Finished in the top 4 last time out (100%)
10/11: Raced in the last 7 weeks (91%)
..9/11: Won between 1-2 times over fences (82%)
..9/11: Finished 1st or 2nd last time out (82%)
..9/11: Favourites that finished in the top 3 (82%)
..8/11: Aged 7yo (73%)
..7/11: Returned 9/4 or shorter (64%)
..7/11: Won over 3m (or further) chase (64%)
..7/11: Won last time out (64%)
..6/11: Irish bred (55%)
..2/11: Trained by Alan King (18%)
..2/11: Trained by Paul Nicholls (18%)
..2/11: Ridden by Daryl Jacob (18%)
..2/11: Winning favourites (18%)
The average winning SP in the last 8 years is 11/4
ROCKY'S TREASURE has been most impressive since being switched to chasing, jumping soundly when making it 4 wins from his 5 starts in a Doncaster Grade 2 last month. He can put his experience to good use and concede weight all round. Smart-hurdler Ok Corral is also very interesting on the back of his easy Plumpton chase debut success and feared most.
The Racing Horse Verdict:
1 Ok CORRAL 11/4 (WINNER) 2 ROCKYS TREASURE 13/8
Ok Corral is a smart hurdler (runner-up in Cheltenham Grade 1) who made little fuss of landing cramped odds on chase debut at Plumpton (25.7f) last month. He is open to massive improvement moving forward. Ok Corral will need to jump better than at Plumpton but that can almost be taken for granted. After his second in the Albert Bartlett at Cheltenham last season, another trip to The Festival will be on the cards if he lands this. We had the top two in the market almost joint favourites.
Update: We managed to get most of our bet on at 10/3
2.25 Warwick: Ballymore Leamington Novices´ Hurdle (Grade 2)
12/12: Returned 8/1 or shorter (100%)
12/12: Won over at least 2m4f (hurdles) before (100%)
12/12: Won between 1-2 times over hurdles before (100%)
12/12: Finished 1st or 2nd last time out (100%)
11/12: Raced within the last 5 weeks (92%)
11/12: Came from the top 3 in the betting (92%)
10/12: Ran at season’s Cheltenham Festival (83%)
..8/12: Winning distance – 3 ½ lengths or less (67%)
..8/12: Irish bred (67%)
..8/12: Won last time out (67%)
..6/12: Winning favourites (50%)
..6/12: Placed favourites (50%)
..6/12: Aged 5yo (50%)
..2/12: Won at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (17%)
The average winning SP in the last 8 years is 3/1
A winner between the Flags, BIRCHDALE justified market support and looked a good prospect as he made a winning start in a C&D maiden last month, encouragingly putting distance between himself and the rest late on. He looks sure to do better and gets the nod. Tidal Flow is of a very similar ilk though, and rates a lead danger, whist Beakstown may represent some value amongst the remainder.
The Racing Horse Verdict:
1 TIDAL FLOW 11/10 2 STONEY MOUNTAIN 4/1 (2nd)
We had backed Tidal Flow as a part stake-saver but now represents our only Pacafi interest for today. He will now bid to take full advantage of the late defection of the potentially smart Birchdale. He is the highest-rated runner in the race and trainer Philip Hobbs has a place on our racecourse template and so does jockey Richard Johnson.
He has only lost once in a four-race career to date and owner Garth Broom feels he had an excuse that day. He said: "We were thrilled with him at Newbury, we know how much they thought of Downtown Getaway in Ireland because we bought the horse who finished second to him in a bumper at Fairyhouse (Remastered). There looked to be plenty in that Newbury race, we had a penalty but still won. He’s a chaser in the making, but he’s come on in leaps and bounds. He was a little disappointing in his second bumper, but they had a bit of a virus last season and he had five months between races. He’s been unbeaten otherwise, so the hopes and dreams are still there."
Philip Hobbs, trainer: "He's been in very good form since Newbury and hopefully he has a good chance upped in grade."
3.00 – McCoy Constructors Civil Engineering Classic Handicap Chase (Grade 3) 3m5f
13/13: Raced within the last 6 weeks (100%)
12/13: Won a chase race over at least 3m (92%)
12/13: Raced within the last 5 weeks (92%)
10/13: Carried 11st 2lbs or less in weight (77%)
10/13: Winners from outside the top 3 in the betting (77%)
..9/13: Officially rated between 129-140 (69%)
..9/13: Aged between 7-9yo (69%)
..8/13: Won between 2-5 times over fences before (62%)
..8/13: Won by a horse aged 9yo or older (62%)
..8/13: Winning distance – 4 lengths or less (62%)
..8/13: Won by an Irish bred horse (62%)
..8/13: Raced at Warwick (hurdles, chase, NH Flat) previously (62%)
..7/13: Favourites placed (54%)
..7/13: Placed in the top 3 in their last race (54%)
..7/13: Returned a double-figure price (54%)
..6/13: Ran at Cheltenham (3) or Newbury (3) in last race (46%)
..5/13: Ran in season’s Grand National (One For Arthur won both 2017) (38%)
..3/13: Trained by Paul Nicholls (23%)
..3/13: Won their last race (23%)
..2/13: Trained by Alan King (15%)
The average winning SP in the last 13 runnings is 10.5/1
STEP BACK should be all the sharper with his reappearance behind him and can get back on the up with the cheekpieces he wore to such good effect at Sandown last spring back in place. Nigel Twiston-Davies pair Cogry and Calett Mad head the dangers along with last year's winner Milansbar.
The Racing Horse Verdict:
1 CALLET MAD 7/1 (2nd) 2 IMPULSIVE STAR 8/1(WINNER) 3 IBIS DU RHEU 7/1
Callet Mad is in good heart back over fences of late, running well in a couple of hot Cheltenham handicaps before second in 4m Borders National at Kelso. We appreciate he is up 5lbs but has to be respected and especially with James Bowen in the saddle. Definitely the one to beat.
Mistake at the last cost Callet Mad victory but the Exacta paid £71.70 and the CSF £63.26.
3.35 – Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle (Series Qualifier) (Class 2) 3m1f
13/13: Winning distance – 4 lengths or less (100%)
12/13: Won between 1-4 times over hurdles before (92%)
....7/8: Aged 8yo or younger (88%)
11/13: Carried 11st 0lbs or less (85%)
11/13: Raced within the last 5 weeks (85%)
10/13: Won over at least 3m (hurdles) before (77%)
10/13: Finished unplaced in Pertemps Hurdle at Cheltenham Festival (77%)
10/13: Never raced over hurdles at Warwick before (77%)
10/13: Officially rated between 126-142 (77%)
10/13: Returned 9/1 or shorter (77%)
..7/13: Came from the top 3 in the betting (54%)
..6/13: Placed favourites (46%)
..5/13: Won last time out (38%)
..2/13: Ran at Bangor last time out (15%)
..2/13: Won by trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies (15%)
..2/13: Trained by Jonjo O’Neill (15%)
..2/13: Ridden by Paddy Brennan (15%)
..2/13: Winning favourites (15%)
The average winning SP in the last 8 runnings is 8/1
FIRST ASSIGNMENT failed to meet market expectations at Haydock in November but he’s been given a break since and can get back on the up for his excellent yard. Keeper Hill must enter the reckoning after running up to his best at Cheltenham last time, with Lungarno Palace and Notwhatiam others capable of having a say.
The Racing Horse Verdict:
1 LUNGARNO PALACE 6/1 2 FIRST ASSIGNMENT 3/1 (3rd) 3 PERFECT MAN 14/1
Lungarno Place has made heavy weather of landing the odds in novice company at Stratford in October but has upped his game with 2 in-frame efforts in Cheltenham handicaps last 2 starts. On that basis he needs serious consideration!
Today's Pacafi: click here
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