Unibet Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle (Listed Race) 2m5f

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The Racing Horse offers our powerful RACECOURSE TEMPLATE, TRENDS and BETTING ADVICE for Kempton on Saturday the 12th January 2019.  First we look at the performance of the different disciplines in both handicap and non-handicap National Hunt races. A cursory glance at the two sets of figures show a disparity that must be factored into thought processes! Assuming they have runners or rides we also highlight the trainers and jockeys most likely to be involved given current performances.

The Racecourse Templates are underpinned with Racing Trends. The profiling of races help sift the contenders from the pretenders and gives an overview of what type of entry combination are most likely to prosper. Equally, it reveals those carrying negative traits making it an essential tool/information for layers.

Finally we offer our astute betting advice. This trilateral approach offers absolute relevance and because of its importance/weight this feature is now part of the service we provide our members. We believe the pertinence of our information will help the reader find winners! Please not the huge disparity between non-handicap and handicap races.

We are not covering the 32Red Casino Chase (Listed) over 2m4f110y because we do not have enough information to build from. The feature race of Saturday’s Kempton race-card, the competitive Listed Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle goes to post at 2.40pm as the fifth race of the afternoon at the Sunbury venue. Boasting a first-prize in excess of £25,000 the 2m5f contest is named after the famous Lanzarote, who won the 1974 Champion Hurdle, and who had an excellent record at this venue where he twice won the Christmas Hurdle.

Just 7lbs separate the 11 who have a chance of winning and we know the favourites win just 28% this race and we are opposing the favourite, we are also opposing our racecourse template and hope to logically explain why shortly. As we go to post the going is good.

KEMPTON RACECOURSE TEMPLATE

FAVOURITES
NON-HANDICAP RACES (5 YEARS)       HANDICAP RACES (5 YEARS)

Hurdle:   66-120 for 55% (+4.79)    27-97  for 28% (-14.34)
Chase:    33-55  for 60% (+5.51)    37-104 for 36%  (-1.68)
NHF:       5-16  for 31% (-5.35)     0-0   for  - 
Total:   104-191 for 54% (+4.94)    64-201 for 32% (-16.02)

TOP 5 TRAINERS at Kempton this season
Nicky Henderson: 8 wins from 22 for  36% (+5.77)
Paul Nicholls:   7 wins from 26 for  27% (+5.13)
Philip Hobbs:    3 wins from 10 for  30% (-0.50)
Grace Harris:    1 wins from  1 for 100% (+9.00)
John Flint:      1 wins from  1 for 100% (+9.00)


TOP 5 JOCKEYS at Kempton this season
Nico de Boinville: 5 wins from 12 for 42%  (+7.74)
Harry Cobden:      5 wins from 20 for 25%  (+7.05)
Richard Johnson:   5 wins from 23 for 22%  (-2.30)
Barry Geraghty:    2 wins from  4 for 50%  (-0.21)
James Bowen:       2 wins from  8 for 25% (+16.00)

2.40 Kempton: Unibet Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle (Listed) 2m5f ITV4 

17/17: Won between 1-3 times over hurdles before (100%)
16/17: Raced within the last 8 weeks (94%)
15/17: Aged 7yo or younger (88%)
32/37: Won by 7yo or younger (86%)
14/17: Returned 10/1 or shorter (82%)
13/17: Won exactly 2 times over hurdles before (76%)
12/17: Never won a hurdles race over this trip or longer before (71%)
12/17: Winning distance 3 lengths or less (71%)
12/17: Came from the top 3 in the betting (71%)
12/17: Winners ran at season’s Cheltenham Festival (0 winners) (71%)
11/17: Irish (5) or French (5) bred (65%)
10/17: Carried 10st 11lbs or less (59%)
..9/17: Aged 6yo (53%)
..9/17: Placed favourites (53%)
..7/17: Won last time out (41%)
..6/17: Had run at Kempton before (5 won) (35%)
..5/17: Winning favourites (29%)
..3/17: Trained by Nick Williams (18%)
..3/17: Trained by Nicky Henderson (18%)
..3/17: Trained by Paul Nicholls (18%)
..3/22: Trained by Gary Moore (14%)

The winning SP in the last 9 years is 6/1.

Trends that cannot/should not be ignored

There are some trends you cannot ignore and we note all of the last 17 had won between 1-3 times over hurdles before. Then 15 of the last 17 winners are aged 7yo or younger and over the last 37 runnings 32 have won. This looks a great place to start. Nick Williams and Paul Nicholls know how to win this race though the latter has reminded us his horses have just had the flu jab and will not feature on our betting slips!

Timeform 

LORD NAPIER is unbeaten in 2 previous outings around 2½m and might be worth siding with after putting in some good late work in the very competitive Betfair Exchange Hurdle over 2m at Ascot last time. Kloud Gate is inexperienced for a race of this nature but has to be feared after hacking up in a couple of small-field handicaps last month. Erick Le Rouge and Cotswold Way are also much respected.

The Racing Horse Verdict:

1 CANYON CITY 25/1 (Bet365 and Ladbrokes 15.49)  2 DOUX PRETENDER 8/1 (general)  3 COTSWOLD WAY 14/1 (Ladbrokes and Coral)

Canyon City (OR 133) is too big a price at 25/1 to ignore (trading at 44.00 on the Betfair Exchange at 21.40). He has improved upon returning from a break, landing back-to-back handicaps at Fakenham/Fontwell. Good second over course and distance in November and further progress when narrowly denied at Doncaster since. Looks to have a great each-way chance. His trainer shows a £92.17 profit to a £1 level-stake when having just one runner on the card (hurdles). Will be well ridden and given a chance to place by Bryony Frost who is 1-1 when riding this selection. Trainer Neil King is in form with his horses and 2 of the last 3 have won, both ridden by Bryony Frost (loser ridden by Richard Johnson) so is effectively going for a hat-trick? Can she/they do it? Probably not, but the price is value...

Our feeling is the favourite Kloud Gate (127) will be out of the first three, has to be respected but has now shot up the weights and the 7/2 is too short! Worth noting Canyon City is rated 133 and the favourite 127.

***

  Today's Pacafi: click here

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