Racecourse Template for Haydock (19 January 2019)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

 Apologies for being late with this piece, we have only just returned from Chepstow Racecourse. There were people walking on the track can you believe - we missed a connection etc etc etc, we will post in full before bedtime. We had hoped to cover one or two Ascot races but with the time allowed cannot do it justice! Once again our sincere apologies! Our Chepstow review will be posted tomorrow for those that might be interested...

HAYDOCK RACECOURSE TEMPLATE .

FAVOURITES
NON-HANDICAP RACES (5 YEARS)       HANDICAP RACES (5 YEARS)

Hurdle:   27-53  for 51% (+2.72)   21-80  for 26%  (-2.89)
Chase:    14-31  for 45% (-2.41)   16-77  for 21% (-26.03)
NHF:       6-9   for 67% (+3.98)    0-0   for  - 
Total:    47-93  for 51% (+4.34)   37-157 for 24% (-28.92)

TOP 5 TRAINERS at Haydock 2017/18
Donald McCain:    9 wins from 24 for 38% (+17.28)
Venetia Williams: 4 wins from 11 for 36% (+79.50) 
N Twiston-Davies: 4 wins from 24 for 17% (-10.52)
Nicky Henderson:  3 wins from 10 for 30%  (+0.37)
Sue Smith:        3 wins from 26 for 12%  (-9.16)

TOP 5 JOCKEYS at Haydock 2017/18
W Kennedy: 8 wins from 18 for 44% (+14.28)
D Jacob:   4 wins from 13 for 31%  (+9.97)
T O'Brien: 3 wins from 11 for 27% (+11.50)
H Cobden:  3 wins from 12 for 25% (+16.50)
D Cook:    3 wins from 26 for 12%  (-9.16)

2018/19 figures

From a small sample we have trainer and jockey figures for this season. Regarding trainers Kim Bailey shows 3-4 for 75% (+3.25), Nigel Twiston-Davies 3-17 for 18% (-2.66), Ruth Jefferson 2-2 for 100% (+20.00), Jamie Snowden 2-3 for 67% (+11.00) and Tom George 2-4 for 50% (+1.83).

The jockeys show Sam Twiston-Davies 3-16 for 19% (-7.16), Sean Bowen 2-5 for 40% (+12.00), Danny Cook 2-6 for 33% (+1.83), Tom Scudamore 2-12 for 17% (-0.66) and David Bass 1-1 for 100% (+0.90).

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2.05 Haydock: Sky Bet Supreme Trial Rossington Main Novices' Hurdle (Grade 2) 2m ITV

12/12: Aged 7yo or younger (100%)
12/12: Won between 1-2 times over hurdles previously (100%)
11/12: Ran within the last 6 weeks (92%)
11/12: Priced 4/1 or shorter (92%)
..8/12: Won their last race (67%)
..6/12: Aged 5yo (50%)
..6/12: Raced at Haydock previously (50%)
..6/12: Winning Favourites (50%)
..4/12:  Ran at Haydock last time out (33%)
..3/12: French bred (25%)
..2/12: Went onto win the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (17%)
..2/12: Ran at Ascot last time out (17%)
..2/12: Trained by Nicky Henderson (17%)
..2/12: Trained by Venetia Williams (17%)
..2/12: Trained by Donald McCain Jnr (17%)

The average winning SP in the last 8 runnings is 11/4
Note: 2004 Renewal was staged at Wetherby

Timeform 

MISTER FISHER opened his account over hurdles in good style at Kempton and is sure to progress further. He's just preferred to Bright Forecast and impressive Uttoxeter winner Esprit du Large in another cracking-looking renewal of this Grade 2.

The Racing Horse Verdict: 1 Mister Fisher Evens (WINNER)  2 Bright Forecast 11/4 (2nd) Exacta paid £3.40 & CSF £3.28

Mister Fisher has impressed back at the scene of his bumper win when opening account over hurdles at Kempton over 2m on Boxing Day, travelling and jumping well. Absolutely certain to progress further. This is not a straightforward task, however, as Bright Forecast is equally progressive and two from two over timber. At 4/5 we cannot say there is perceived value but is our idea of the winner. Our price for the race would be 11/10 Mister Fisher and 7/4 Bright Forecast and 10/1 Bar

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2.40 Haydock: The New One Unibet Champion Hurdle Trial (Grade 2) 2m ITV4 

13/13: Won at least twice over hurdles in UK before (100%)
13/13: Favourites placed in top 3 (100%)
11/13: Finished in top three in last race (85%)
11/13: Ran within the last 5 weeks (85%)
11/13: From the top 3 in the betting (85%)
11/13: Priced 9/4 or shorter (85%)
10/13: Went onto run in season’s Champion Hurdle (77%)
10/13: Won at least 3 times over hurdles previously (77%)
10/13: Officially Rated 152 or higher (77%)
10/13: Either French (3) or Irish (7) bred (77%)
..9/13: Ran at Cheltenham (4) or Kempton (5) last time out (69%)
..8/13: Winning Favourites (62%)
..7/13: Aged 7yo or younger (54%)
..4/13: Placed in top 4 in season’s Champion Hurdle (0 winners) (31%)
..3/13: Won last race (23%)
..1/13: Win that season’s World Hurdle (8%)

The average SP in the last 8 runnings is 2/1

Timeform 

Little to separate these five. SILVER STREAK has already had one good pay day over C&D and could be the way to go as he appears to still be on the up if anything. Western Ryder is held by the selection on last month's Cheltenham form but he's building up a solid record and could be the one to give him most to do.

The Racing Horse Verdict:

1 Silver Streak 5/2 (2nd) 2  Global Citiizen 4/1 (WINNER).

Exacta paid £9.70 & CSF £10.74

We were standing next to Luke Harvey at Chepstow today when he interviewed Richard Johnson about the chances of Western Ryder, the jockey did not reassure him about his chances. Luke said that horse was disappointing and Johnson did not argue or give rebuff. He said: "Western Ryder needs to improve, he’s been beaten by a couple of the other entrants before, but I think he is still going the right way and I hope he won’t be far off. As it’s a Grade 2 he will receive weight from Brain Power."

Silver Streak is more of a default selection. He was the Swinton winner over course and distance last May and went very close to landing a major handicap hurdle hat-trick in Greatwood at Cheltenham in November. Good second (Western Ryder third) in Grade 2 there last time. Given the prices and race structure best to place win and stake-saver on this race!

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3.15 Haydock: Peter Marsh Handicap Chase (Grade 2) 3m1f125y ITV

15/15: Won on ground described as soft or worse previously (100%)
14/15: 
Aged 8yo or older (93%)
14/15: Ran within the last 6 weeks (93%)
14/15: Carried 11st 3lbs or less in weight (93%)
13/15: Ran within the last 36 days (87%)
11/15: Won at least 3 times over fences previously (73%)
10/15: Officially Rated 139 or higher (67%)
10/15: Won at Haydock previously (67%)
10/15: Carried 10st 12lbs or less in weight (67%)
..9/15: Favourites unplaced (60%)
..9/15: Won between 3-5 times over fences before (60%)
..9/15: Aged either 8 or 9yo (60%)
..8/15: From outside the top 3 in the betting (53%)
..8/15: Won before (fences) over at least 3m (53%)
..8/15: Finished in the top 3 in their last race (53%)
..8/15: Irish bred (53%)
..7/15: Finished unplaced in that season’s Grand National (47%)
..7/15: Won over fences at Haydock before (47%)
..6/15: Ran at Wetherby last time out (40%)
..5/15: Raced in the Roland Meyrick (Wetherby) last time out (33%)
..5/15: Went onto run at season’s Cheltenham Festival (0 winners) (33%)
..3/15: Trained by Sue Smith (20%)
..2/15: Trained by the McCain stable (13%)
..2/15: Won their last race (13%)
..2/15: Winning favourites (13%)

The average winning SP in the last 15 runnings is 10/1

Recent Peter Marsh Winners

2018: THE DUTCHMAN (13/2)
2017: BRISTOL DE MAI (4/1 jfav)
2016: CLOUDY TOO (6/1)
2015: SAMSTOWN (16/1)
2014: WYCHWOODS BROOK (16/1)
2013: No race
2012: ACCORDING TO PETE (9/1)
2011: No race
2010: OUR VIC (20/1)
2009: CLOUDY LANE (6/1)
2008: No race
2007: THE OUTLIER (8/1)
2006: EBONY LIGHT (33/1)
2005: LORD TRANSCEND (9/4 fav)
2004: ARTIC JACK (6/1)
2003: TRUCKERS TAVERN (9/2)
2002: RED STRIKER (8/1)
2001: No race
2000: THE LAST FLING (11/2)

Timeform 

WAKANDA won the Grade 2 Altcar on this day in 2015 and lurks on a good mark if ready to go after 2 runs back this term. He could give his yard a fourth victory in this. Robinsfirth, Daklondike and Red Infantry are leading dangers.

The Racing Horse Verdict:

1 Wakanda 8/1 (WINNER)  2 Otago Trail 11/2  3 Ballydine 9/1 (3rd)

Wakanda won the Grade 2 Altcar on this day in 2015. Has won a hurdle race and seven chases from 2m to 3m on ground varying from good to heavy. Finished 11l behind Lake View Lad when fourth of 8 at 11/2 on his latest outing in a Grade 3 chase in the Group 3 racingtv.com Rowland Meyrick Handicap Chase at Wetherby over 3m (good to soft) in December last year.

Ryan Clavin, assistant to Sue Smith, trainer: "He seems in very good form at home. We were pleased with his run at Wetherby and he's won round Haydock, so we're going there positive."

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  Today's Pacafi: click here

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