Racecourse Template for Cheltenham (26 January 2019)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

Left-handed, galloping, undulating and testing track with stiff fences. Old course has circuit of 1m4f with new course 1/2f longer. Only two hurdles in final 7f on New course

The Racing Horse offers our powerful RACECOURSE TEMPLATE, TRENDS and BETTING ADVICE for Saturday 26th January 2019. 

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First we look at the performance of the different disciplines in both handicap and non-handicap National Hunt races. A cursory glance at the two sets of figures show a disparity that must be factored into thought processes! Favourites in handicaps have a particularly poor record at this course and hit just 17%, that's 27% less than favourites in non-handicap hurdles and 25% less than favourites in non-handicap chases!

Assuming they have runners or rides we also highlight the trainers and jockeys most likely to be involved given current performances.

The Racecourse Templates are underpinned with Racing Trends. The profiling of races help sift the contenders from the pretenders and gives an overview of what type of entry combination are most likely to prosper. Equally, it reveals those carrying negative traits making it an essential tool/information for layers.

Finally we offer our astute betting advice. This trilateral approach offers absolute relevance and because of its importance/weight this feature is now part of the service we provide our members. We believe the pertinence of our information will help the reader find winners!

This is a first draft and will be updated through the week, we will email alert once it has been concluded...

CHELTENHAM RACECOURSE TEMPLATE

FAVOURITES
NON-HANDICAP RACES (5 YEARS)       HANDICAP RACES (5 YEARS)

Hurdle:   51-116 for 44% (+3.93)    17-103  for 17% (-37.63)
Chase:    55-130 for 42% (-6.92)    21-123  for 17% (-33.92)
NHF:       7-28  for 25% (-4.00)     0-0    for  - 
Total:   113-274 for 41% (-6.96)    38-226  for 17% (-71.54)

TOP 5 TRAINERS at Cheltenham this season
Colin Tizzard:  5 wins from 37 for 14% (-14.30)
Fergal O'Brien: 4 wins from 24 for 17% (+31.00)
Paul Nicholls:  4 wins from 27 for 15%  (-3.16)
Ian Williams:   3 wins from  8 for 38%  (+5.00)
Gordon Elliott: 3 wins from 14 for 21%  (-0.50)


TOP 5 JOCKEYS at Cheltenham this season
Richard Johnson: 8 wins from 32 for 25% (+12.75)
Harry Cobden:    4 wins from 25 for 16%  (-5.96)
Paddy Brennan:   4 wins from 25 for 16% (+29.75)
Barry Geraghty:  3 wins from 15 for 20%  (-2.50)
Charlie Hammond: 2 wins from  8 for 25%  (+8.00)

12.40 Cheltenham: JCB Triumph Trial Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 2) 2m179y 

13/15: Finished 1st or 2nd last time out (87%)
12/15: Winners ran in season’s Triumph Hurdle at Cheltenham Festival (80%)
12/15: Raced within the last 7 weeks (80%)
12/15: Placed favourites (80%)
11/15: Came from the top 3 in the betting (73%)
10/15: Previously won at least once over hurdles in UK (67%)
..9/15: Returned 2/1 or shorter in the market (60%)
..9/15: Winning distance – 2 ¼ lengths or less (60%)
..9/15: Won last time out (60%)
..8/15: French bred (including last 6 winners) (53%)
..8/15: Winning favourites (1 joint) (53%)
..7/15: Placed in season’s Triumph Hurdle (3 winners) (47%)
..5/15: Raced at Cheltenham previously (33%)
..4/15: Trained by Alan King (27%)
..4/15: Priced 25/1, 50/1 or 100/1 (27%)
..3/15: Won by a German bred horse (20%)
..3/15: Won by an Irish bred horse (20%)

The last two winners have been owned by JP McManus

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1.15 Cheltenham: Timeform Novices' Handicap Chase (Class 2) 2m4f127y

15/15: Aged 8yo or younger (100%)
14/15: Ran at season’s Cheltenham Festival (2 winners) (93%)
14/15: Won between 0-2 races over fences in UK previously (93%)
13/15: Raced within the last 6 weeks (87%)
12/15: Finished either 1st or 2nd last time out (80%)
12/15: Won over at least 2m4f (fences) in UK previously (80%)
11/15: Priced 13/2 or shorter (73%)
11/15: Rated 128 or higher (73%)
..9/15: Came from the top 3 in the betting (60%)
..9/15: Winning distance – 5 lengths or more (60%)
..9/15: Irish bred (60%)
..7/15: Carried 11st 2lbs or more (47%)
..6/15: Won last time out (40%)
..6/15: Ran at Kempton last time out (40%)
..5/15: French bred (33%)
..3/15: Ran at Cheltenham last time out (20%)
..3/15: Trained by Venetia Williams (20%)
..3/15: Won with 11st 12lbs (20%)
..2/15: Ridden by Richard Johnson (13%)
..2/15: Trained by Colin Tizzard (13%)
..1/15: Winning favourites (7%)

***

1.50 Cheltenham: Spectra Cyber Security Solutions Trophy Handicap Chase (Grade 3) 2m4f127y

14/15: Won over at least 2m5f (fences) previously (93%)
13/15: Priced 9/1 or shorter (87%)
13/15: Won between 1-4 times over fences previously (87%)
13/15: Placed in the top 4 last time out (87%)
13/15: Rated 130 or higher (87%)
12/15: Ran within the last 6 weeks (80%)
11/15: Aged 8yo or older (73%)
11/15: Ran over fences at Cheltenham before (7 won) (73%)
11/15: Finished 1st or 2nd last time out (73%)
10/15: Winners ran at season’s Cheltenham Festival (0 winners) (67%)
..9/15: Aged 8 or 9yo (60%)
..9/15: Came from the top 3 in the betting (60%)
..8/15: Carried 10st 7lbs or less (53%)
..5/15: Ran at Cheltenham last time out (33%)
..5/15: Won last time out (33%)
..4/15: Ran at Newbury last time out (27%)
..3/15: Winning favourites (20%)
..3/15: Won by a previous winner of the race (20%)
..2/15: Won by the Pipe stable (13%)

***

2.25 Cheltenham:  Betbright Trial Cotswold Chase (Grade 2)

15/15: Officially rated 151 or higher (100%)
14/15: Raced in last 8 weeks (93%)
14/15: Ran at Cheltenham over fences before (8 had won) (93%)
14/15: Won over at least 3m before (fences) (93%)
10/11:  winners aged 9 or 10yo (91%)
13/15: Won between 2-6 times over fences (87%)
11/15: Raced in season’s Gold Cup (0 winners, all placed 8th or better) (73%)
11/15: Aged 9 or 10yo (73%)
10/15: Ran at Wetherby (3), Cheltenham (3) or Kempton (4) last time (67%)
10/15: Priced 7/1 or less (67%)
..9/15: Winning distance – 6 lengths or more (60%)
..9/15: Placed favourites (60%)
..7/15: Unplaced last time out (47%)
..7/15: Won by Irish-bred horse (47%)
..6/15: Winners from outside top 3 in the market (40%)
..6/15: Won last time out (40%)
..5/15: Won by French-bred horse (33%)
..2/15: Won by Paul Nicholls yard (4 wins in total) (13%)
..2/15: Won by Oliver Sherwood yard (13%)
..1/15: Won the Grand National (Many Clouds, 2015) (7%)
..0/15: Favourites (0%)

The average winning SP in the last 15 runnings is 15/2
Looks Like Trouble (2000) was the last winner to go onto win the Cheltenham Gold Cup

COTSWOLD CHASE RECENT WINNERS

2018: Definitly Red (7/1)
2017: Many Clouds (8/1)
2016: Smad Place (9/2)
2015: Many Clouds (4/1)
2014: The Giant Bolster (6/1)
2013: Cape Tribulation (7/1)
2012: Midnight Chase (11/2)
2011: Neptune Collonges (11/2)
2010: Taranis (16/1)
2009: Joe Lively (11/1)
2008: Knowhere (16/1)
2007: Exotic Dancer (6/1)
2006: See You Sometime (18/1)
2005: Grey Abbey (10/3)
2004: Jair Du Cochet (11/4)

***

3.00 Cheltenham: Ballymore Novices' Hurdle (Registered As The Classic Novices' Hurdle) (Grade 2) 2m4f56y

13/13: Placed 1st or 2nd in their last race (100%)
12/13: Ran within the last 8 weeks (92%)
11/13: Favourites placed (85%)
11/13: Won between 1-3 times over hurdles previously (85%)
11/13: Raced at season’s Cheltenham Festival (3 winners) (85%)
10/13: Won over at least 2m4f (hurdles) previously (77%)
10/13: Winners from the top 3 in the market (77%)
10/13: Won their latest race (77%)
10/13: Won by a horse aged 6yo (77%)
..9/13: Winning distance – 2 ½ lengths or more (69%)
..8/13: Raced at Cheltenham previously (62%)
..8/13: Priced 7/2 or less (62%)
..5/13: Favourites that won (38%)
..4/13: Raced at Cheltenham last time out (31%)
..4/13: Raced at Newbury last time out (31%)
..3/13: Won by the Alan King stable (23%)
..3/13: Won at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (23%)
..3/13: Ridden by Barry Geraghty (23%)
..3/13: Won by the Nicky Henderson stable (23%)

***

  Today's Pacafi: click here

 Disclaimer
Our information and betting advice is for educational purposes only. Please exercise caution when acting upon our advice and remember that gambling carries risk. No liability is taken by the site or product owner following any of the information given or sold to you. Betting always involves a level of risk and you should never bet more than you can afford to lose.

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