The Racing Horse offers our powerful RACECOURSE TEMPLATE, TRENDS and BETTING ADVICE for Saturday 2nd February 2019.
First we look at the performance of the different disciplines in both handicap and non-handicap National Hunt races. A cursory glance at the two sets of figures show a disparity that must be factored into thought processes! For example, favourites in non-handicaps in hurdles strike at a 27% higher rate. Those in non-handicap chases strike at a 28% higher rate, can these figures be ignored? Of course not!
Assuming they have runners or rides we also highlight the trainers and jockeys most likely to be involved given current performances. Because of a small sample at the course for this season we have highlighted the respective numbers from last season.
The Racecourse Templates are underpinned with Racing Trends. The profiling of races help sift the contenders from the pretenders and gives an overview of what type of entry combination are most likely to prosper. Equally, it reveals those carrying negative traits making it an essential tool/information for layers.
Finally we offer our astute betting advice. This trilateral approach offers absolute relevance and because of its importance/weight this feature is now part of the service we provide our members. We genuinely believe the pertinence of our information must help the reader find winners!
UPDATE: Racing fans are set for a stunning Saturday after it became increasingly likely Sandown will be able to join Leopardstown in serving up a mouthwatering menu of jumping. The track that is now free of frost so the going on the Chase course: Good to Soft (Good in places), Hurdles course: Soft (Good to Soft in places).
The Sandown Park racecourse is an oval shaped course of thirteen furlongs, with a long four furlong finishing straight. The course is quite testing, particularly the last six furlongs which are all uphill. The going will be an added factor to any betting decision, if it is soft to heavy that six furlongs will seem like a mile.
FAVOURITES NON-HANDICAP RACES (5 YEARS) HANDICAP RACES (5 YEARS) Hurdle: 31-62 for 50% (+1.23) 18-80 for 23% (-7.92) Chase: 21-37 for 57% (+9.18) 24-83 for 29% (-4.10) NHF: 1-9 for 11% (-6.13) 0-0 for - Total: 53-108 for 49% (+4.28) 42-163 for 26% (-12.02) TOP 5 TRAINERS at Sandown for 2017/18 Nicky Henderson: 12 wins from 33 for 36% (+0.39) N Twiston-Davies: 5 wins from 20 for 25% (+31.00) Charlie Longsdon: 3 wins from 17 for 18% (+24.00) Gary Moore: 3 wins from 29 for 10% (-16.16) Paul Nicholls: 3 wins from 37 for 8% (-22.50) TOP 5 JOCKEYS at Sandown for 2017/18 Nico de Boinville: 7 wins from 24 for 29% (-3.17) Daryl Jacob: 5 wins from 16 for 31% (+17.17) Jamie Moore: 5 wins from 21 for 24% (+4.33) Sean Houlihan: 3 wins from 6 for 50% (+26.25) Leighton Aspell: 3 wins from 18 for 17% (+2.16)
The top trainers at Sandown this season so far are Colin Tizzard 3-13, Gary Moore 3-18, Nigel Twiston-Davies 2-3, Venetia Williams 2-6 and Nicky Henderson 2-9 so three of them are making the leader board for both seasons. Regarding jockeys this season Tom O'Brien 4-12, Nico de Boinville 2-3, Daryl Jacob 2-13, Jamie Moore 2-13 and Charlie Deutsch 1-1 so once again three of the top jockeys from last season make the board again.
1.15 Sandown: 888Sport Handicap Chase (Class 2) 1m7f119y
12/12: Priced 10/1 or shorter (100%)
12/12: Raced within the last 8 weeks (100%)
11/12: Finished in the top 3 last time out (92%)
10/12: Raced within the last 4 weeks (83%)
..9/12: Won between 1-4 times over fences before (75%)
..9/12: Aged 9yo or younger (75%)
..9/12: Winning distance – 2 lengths or more (75%)
..7/12: Winners ran at season’s Cheltenham Festival (0 winners) (58%)
..6/12: Winners raced season’s Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase (50%)
..6/12: Ran over fences at Sandown before (3 won) (50%)
..5/12: Carried 10st 10lbs or less (42%)
..5/12: Raced at Sandown last time out (42%)
..5/12: Came from outside the top 4 in the betting (42%)
..4/12: Aged 7yo (33%)
..4/12: French bred (33%)
..4/12: Had an official rating of exactly 125 (33%)
....2/7: Trained by Kerry Lee (29%)
....2/7: Trained by Venetia Williams (29%)
..3/12: Won last time out (25%)
..3/12: Trained by Venetia Williams (25%)
..3/12: Ridden by Aidan Coleman (25%)
..3/12: Winning favourites (25%)
..2/12: Trained by Nicky Henderson (17%)
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 9/2
NOT ANOTHER MUDDLE looked a good prospect for these sort of races when winning at Leicester when last seen a year ago. His yard can ready one after an absence and he can maintain his unbeaten record in this sphere if picking up where he left off. Azzuri improved again in his time in Ireland and looks a big player back with Dan Skelton. Red Mix is also interesting starting out for his new yard.
The Racing Horse Verdict:
1 DAREBIN 16/1 2 COPAIN DES CLASSE 8/1 3 DOLOS 5/1 (WINNER)
Darebin came in for a fine ride when adding to tally in 4-runner course and distance handicap chase 4 weeks ago. Out of the handicap but Charlie Hammonds 5lbs claim puts him in contention with a real chance. Has a few fresh horse to beat, had they been tuned up he would not be a selection. Drifted to 16/1 and the price has become very attractive! Over the years Gary Moore has surprised here at the course and is on our leader board. Not a strong selection, had backed Bigmartre but that one is now a non-runner because of travel problems.
1.50 Sandown: 888Sport Contenders Hurdle (Listed) 2m ITV4
8/8: Finished in the top 4 last time out (100%)
8/8: Ran in the last 6 weeks (100%)
8/8: Won over 2m (hurdles) before (100%)
7/8: Returned 11/4 or shorter (88%)
7/8: French bred (88%)
6/8: Won between 2-5 times (hurdles) (75%)
5/8: Aged 5 or 6 years-old (63%)
5/8: Winning favourites (63%)
5/8: Rated 161 or higher (63%)
5/8: Trained by Nicky Henderson (63%)
3/5: Ridden by Barry Geraghty (60%)
3/8: Ran at Ascot last time out (38%)
3/8: Won last time out (38%)
2/8: Trained by Paul Nicholls (25%)
Buveur D’Air won the race in 2017 and 2018
Barry Geraghty's strike rate on hurdling favourites is 41%
BUVEUR D'AIR has used this race as a final prep' run before Champion Hurdle glory for the past 2 seasons, and though he suffered a shock reversal in the Christmas Hurdle in December, he is fully expected to pass this test without too much difficulty. Roksana lacks a run, so the best forecast option could be Rayvin Black, a position he has filled twice in previous renewals.
The Racing Horse Verdict:
1 BUVEUR D'AIR 1/5 (WINNER) 2 VISION DES FLOS 9/1 (2nd)
Buveur D'Air is a top-class hurdler who landed this race for the past 2 seasons prior to taking the Champion Hurdle. Suffered a shock defeat in the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton but fully expected to bounce back here.
The Exacta paid £1.70 and the CSF £2.01
2.25 Sandown: 888Sport Scilly Isles Novices' Chase (Grade 1) 2m4f110y
15/15: Priced 9/2 or shorter (100%)
15/15: Came from the top 3 in the betting (100%)
15/15: Won no more than 3 times over fences before (100%)
15/15: Finished in the top 3 last time out (100%)
14/15: Raced within the last 6 weeks (93%)
14/15: Finished in the top 2 last time out (93%)
13/15: Aged 7yo or younger (87%)
13/15: Won between 1-3 times over fences before (87%)
11/15: Placed favourites (73%)
11/15: Winners ran at season’s Cheltenham Festival (0 winners) (73%)
10/15: Winning distance – 2 lengths or more (67%)
10/15: Winning favourites (67%)
..9/15: French bred (60%)
..6/15: Aged 7yo (40%)
..5/15: Irish bred (33%)
..5/15: Ran at Cheltenham last time out (33%)
..5/15: Trained by Nicky Henderson (33%)
..4/15: Trained by Paul Nicholls (27%)
..4/15: Ran over fences at Sandown before (27%)
..4/15: Ridden by Daryl Jacob (last 4 winners) (27%)
..4/15: Winners finished in top 5 in the RSA Chase (27%)
..3/15: Ridden by Barry Geraghty (20%)
..2/15: Ridden by Ruby Walsh (13%)
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 7/4
A small field but a most intriguing contest. It was hard not to be impressed by the way LOSTINTRANSLATION went about things when winning the Dipper at Cheltenham last month, and he can follow up. Defi du Seuil and Vinndication are formidable rivals though, with the former now 3 lb better off at the weights and the latter unlikely to give up his unbeaten record without a fight.
The Racing Horse Verdict:
1 DEFI DU SEUIL 7/2 (WINNER) 2 LOSTINTRANSLATION 9/4 (2nd)
Defi Du Seuil improved significantly from chase debut when scoring at Exeter in December. Fully confirmed that form when 1 ¼ lengths second of 4 to Lostintranslation in the Dipper and is 3 lb better off now.
We are claiming everything in this race after opposing the favourite from a winning perspective. The Exacta paid £10.70 and the CSF £11.24, the Trifecta paid £25.70.
3.00 Sandown: 888Sport Heroes Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) 2m7f98y ITV
13/13: Ran in the last 8 weeks (100%)
13/13: Won by a horse aged 9yo or younger (100%)
12/13: Won over at least 2m4f (hurdles) previously (92%)
11/13: Carried 10st 12lbs or less in weight (85%)
10/13: Officially rated 135 or lower (77%)
10/13: Won between 2-3 times over hurdles previously (77%)
10/13: Winners raced at Cheltenham Festival that season (77%)
10/13: Winning distance – 2 ½ lengths or shorter (77%)
9/13: Winners that came from the top 3 in the market (69%)
9/13: Priced 13/2 or less (69%)
8/13: Won by a horse aged 7 or younger (62%)
8/13: Won by an Irish-bred horse (62%)
7/13: Favourites placed (54%)
4/10: Won by the Paul Nicholls yard (40%)
5/13: Favourites that won (38%)
4/13: Raced over hurdles at Sandown previously (3 won) (31%)
4/13: Won their last race (31%)
4/13: Won by a French-bred horse (31%)
4/13: Raced at Cheltenham last time out (31%)
2/13: Won by the Philip Hobbs yard (15%)
2/13: Ridden by Richard Johnson (15%)
1/13: Winners won at season’s Cheltenham Festival (8%)
The average winning SP in the last 7 runnings is 10/1
LORD NAPIER leaves the impression 3m could suit and might be the answer in this highly competitive race. Ballymoy, Keeper Hill and Eminent Poet are others to consider, while Paul Nicholls, who landed this with the very smart Topofthegame 12 months ago, also has a couple of very interesting contenders in Casko d'Airy and Brio Conti.
The Racing Horse Verdict:
1 THE HOLLOW GINGE 20/1 2 LORD NAPIER 8/1 (WINNER) 3 CASKO D'AIRY 6/1
The Hollow Ginge has returned in good form, building on a pair of in-frame efforts when taking 23f Haydock handicap in the mud just before Christmas. Yes, the 9lb rise demands more but he is heading in right direction and the 20/1 is very attractive. We had it close between the selection and Lord Napier so it was the value in price that swayed it! We are backing both horses.
3.35 Sandown: 888Sport Mobile Masters Handicap Chase (Class 2) 3m110y ITV
14/15: Carried 11st 5lbs or less (93%)
13/15: Won over at least 3m (fences) before (87%)
13/15: Raced within the last 8 weeks (87%)
12/15: Aged 9yo or younger (80%)
11/15: Won between 1-3 times over fences (UK) before (73%)
10/15: Rated 136 or lower (67%)
..9/15: Favourites placed in the top 4 (60%)
..8/15: Raced at Sandown before (4 won) (53%)
..8/15: Placed last time out (53%)
..8/15: Irish-bred (53%)
..7/15: Came from outside the top 3 in the betting (47%)
..6/15: Winning favourites (40%)
..6/15: Raced at either Sandown (3) or Haydock (3) last time out (40%)
....2/5: Trained by Lucy Wadham (40%)
....2/5: Trained by Venetia Williams (40%)
..5/15: Winners ran at following Cheltenham Festival (no winners) (33%)
..5/15: French-bred (33%)
..3/15: Winners finished unplaced in season’s Grand National (20%)..
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 8/1
BELAMI DES PICTONS chased home Waiting Patiently when last seen in November 2017 and remains with potential as a staying chaser. His shrewd handler is adept at having her runners ready to roll after a lay-off and he can make a winning return. Ami Desbois, Give Me A Copper and Shanroe Santos make up the shortlist.
The Racing Horse Verdict:
1 AMI DESBOIS 10/1 (2nd) 2 SHANROE SANTOS 12/1 3 KILCREA VALE 18/1 4 BELAMI DES PICTONS 9/2
Ami Desboit was emphatically back on track when good third in Chepstow handicap (23.6f) in December. Seemed stretched by longer trip at Haydock last time and merits serious consideration.
Today's Pacafi: click here
Our information and betting advice is for educational purposes only. Please exercise caution when acting upon our advice and remember that gambling carries risk. No liability is taken by the site or product owner following any of the information given or sold to you. Betting always involves a level of risk and you should never bet more than you can afford to lose.