Racecourse Template for Punchestown (10 February 2019)

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The Racing Horse offers our powerful RACECOURSE TEMPLATE, TRENDS and BETTING ADVICE for Sunday 10th February 2019 for PUNCHESTOWN..

Punchestown is a right-handed, galloping, undulating track with a steady climb through the last five furlongs. It is a very fair test of a jumper; there are eleven fences to a circuit which are not stiff by British standards and they pose few problems to sound jumpers. The cross-country course is a long and twisting one over a variety of banks and other obstacles, few of which are jumped more than once. The turns are both left- and right-handed and only the final brush fence is on the racecourse proper.

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First we look at the performance of the different disciplines in both handicap and non-handicap National Hunt races and appreciate we have a big sample to digest. Favourites win 46% of all races in non-handicaps and are equal across the three disciplines. Backing them blind would result in a small loss to level-stakes but the numbers make compulsive reading. If opposing a favourite in a non-handicap we would suggest an extra strong reason for doing so.

Assuming they have runners or rides we also highlight the trainers and jockeys most likely to be involved given current performances. Like Naas this course also favours prominent racers generally. The going at the course is Chase course: Yielding (Good to Yielding in places), Hurdles course: Good to Yielding, Cross Country course: Good (Good to Yielding in places). We will add information to this piece later...

FAVOURITES
NON-HANDICAP RACES (5 YEARS)       HANDICAP RACES (5 YEARS)

Hurdle:   91-194 for 47%  (-9.34)   31-110 for 28% (-10.87)
Chase:    65-138 for 47%  (-5.32)    28-91 for 31%  (+9.00)
NHF:      41-92  for 45%  (+1.86)     0-0  for  - 
Total:   197-424 for 46% (-12.81)   59-201 for 29%  (-1.87)

TOP 5 TRAINERS at Punchestown this season
W P Mullins:      12 wins from 49 for 24% (-10.99)
Gordon Elliott:   11 wins from 70 for 16% (-25.81)
Mrs J Harrington:  7 wins form 42 for 17% (+78.33)
Henry De Bromhead: 6 wins from 33 for 18% (-11.27
Joseph O'Brien:    4 wins from 33 for 12%  (-9.25)


TOP 5 JOCKEYS Punchestown this season
Rachael Blackmore: 9 wins from 43 for 21% (+16.22)
Ruby Walsh:        7 wins from 16 for 44%  (-1.24)
Danny Mullins:     5 wins from 15 for 33% (+34.75)
Robbie Power:      5 wins from 26 for 19% (+25.08)
Davy Russell       5 wins from 36 for 14%  (-6.07)

TOP TRAINERS at Punchestown last five seasons
W P Mullins:      160 wins from 649 for 25%
Gordon Elliott:    88 wins from 579 for 15%
Mrs J Harrington:  52 wins from 304 for 17%
Noel Meade:        29 wins from 276 for 11%
Henry De Bromhead: 25 wins from 249 for 10%


TOP JOCKEYS at Punchestown last five seasons
Ruby Walsh:     79 wins from 242 for 33%
Robbie Power:   42 wins from 205 for 20%
Davy Russell:   39 wins from 272 for 14%
M P Walsh:      38 wins from 285 for 13%
Mr P W Mullins: 38 wins from 123 for 31%

W P Mullins - King of Punchestown

In our opinion Willie Mullins is the best trainer of National Hunt horses in the world and he is certainly King at Punchestown. His 160 winners there have come over the past five seasons but had you backed every single runner he ever ran at the course you would be in profit to 33.99pts to level-stakes. He has trained 384 winners at the track from 1,715 runners for 22%. Worth pointing out these figures include multiple entries so in effect racing against himself. Incredible figures! I spent part of an evening with him at the 2017 Melbourne Cup and what a gentleman he was, his perception of horse racing eclipsed anything I had seen or read before regarding horse racing, and I am 67. I am assuming he has recently injected his horses with their annual flu vaccinations because February shows his worst figures since October 2011. For the month so far (only nine days of course) he is 3 wins from 28 for 11%. (five second places at bigger odds). We will watch closely all three of his runners at Naas on Saturday and particularly Pravalaguga.

Runners at Punchestown

Here is what he says about his runners: "Ballycasey (Patrick) runs in the cross country chase over 3m 1f. He ran very well but was a bit careful when he contested the Glenfarclas cross country chase at Cheltenham last time. He will have improved from that experience and will like this ground. We have two runners in the 2 mile listed novice hurdle. We didn’t run Prince D’Aubrelle (Ruby) last weekend because of the fast ground at Leopardstown. He has plenty of ability and we are anxious to get him out. La Sorelita (Paul) has a lovely weight which should ensure she is involved at the business end. We have three in the Grand National Trial Handicap Chase over 3m 4f. Some Neck (Ruby) likes this track and this trip will suit. Isleofhopendreams (David) was very disappointing at Gowran last time and needs to put that run behind him here. This is his trip but he might prefer softer ground. Orion d’Aubrelle (Paul) wore cheekpieces for the first time at Leopardstown over Christmas where he ran better than his finishing position would suggest. He will love this trip and will handle the ground."

There is a brief synopsis below of each of the seven races but it goes without saying the Mullins factor must be factored into all bets irrespective of his February form! 

1.45 Punchestown: Hogan Memorial Cross Country Chase 3m1f

5/8: Enda Bolger's winners of this race (63%) Josies Order 13/8
2/4: Peter Maher's winners of this race (50%) Mtada Supreme 25/1

Timeform

JOSIES ORDERS has established himself in the top echelons of this discipline, and he could well gain compensation for a narrow defeat in this race 12 months ago. Hurricane Darwin was fourth in that aforementioned contest and can go well again, but a bigger threat may emerge in the shape of Ballycasey..

The Racing Horse Verdict:

  1 BALLYCASEY 3/1  2 JOSIES ORDERS 13/8 (WINNER)  3 HURRICANE DARWIN 8/1 (2nd)

Enda Bolger has not had a winner in 2019 and that is the difference for us between the top two in the market. We are also reminded of Willie's comments: "Ballycasey (Patrick) runs in the cross country chase over 3m 1f. He ran very well but was a bit careful when he contested the Glenfarclas cross country chase at Cheltenham last time. He will have improved from that experience and will like this ground." The value must be with the Mullins horse and especially if we acknowledge the ratings, Ballycasey 147 plays Josies Orders 135 though we accept the latter races prominently and an advantage on this course. Of course, one has to totally respect Enda Bolger in these type of races and the betting is telling us this is not a Cheltenham prep (2.28 Betfair at 13.43).

***

2.20 Punchestown: I.N.H. Stallion Owners EBF Novice Hurdle (Listed Race) 2m

3/6: Gordon Elliott winners (50%)

Timeform

PRINCE D'AUBRELLE clearly isn't the easiest to train, but he couldn't be in better hands and is clearly very talented given his record when making it to the track, He looks the way to go, with Chosen Mate the likely danger following an impressive win at Fairyhouse.

The Racing Horse Verdict:

1 CHOSEN MATE 5/2 (2nd)  2 PRINCE D'AUBRELLE 11/4  3 LA SORELITA 7/1

We might have misread the signals but Mullins told us of Prince D'Aubrelle: "He has plenty of ability and we are anxious to get him out." We digested the words 'get him out' after a break of 276 days. Remember before that run he had a break of 949 days and the maths is against us even though the horse has ability! Since the comments above Willie has since said: "Prince D'Aubrelle is a horse we've always liked a lot. He was ready to run at Leopardstown last weekend but we took him out as the ground was a bit too quick. He's always had plenty of ability and, hopefully, he'll show some of that." We would like to see him win but believe he will probably lack for fitness on this occasion!

***

2.50 Punchestown: Festival Ticket Deal Discount Maiden Hurdle 2m4f

Des Donovan shows a profit of £13.37 when only having one runner on the card but saddles An Marcach who is trading at 200/1 with Paddy Power. Robby Power's 20% strike-rate at the course looks more likely to succeed whilst riding Discordantly, will look at the race later today.

Timeform

Plenty of depth to this maiden with DISCORDANTLY taken to make it fourth time lucky over hurdles after a fine run behind a promising Gigginstown pair at Navan. Take Revenge was a big improver when second over C&D in December and seems sure to be winning races in this sphere, as does Lethal Steps.

The Racing Horse Verdict:

1 DISCORDANTLY 4/1 (2nd)  2 TAKE REVENGE 11/2 (WINNER)  3 LETHAL STEPS 6/1 (3rd). 

Discordantly has produced two fine efforts in huge fields behind potentially smart winners and likely to progress further given he is lightly-raced for Jessica Harrington.

Found the forecasts & the first three. The Exacta paid €16.50 & CSF €16.71. Had you permed all three the Tricast paid €110.10.

***

3.20 Punchestown: David Trundley Artist At Punchestown Handicap Hurdle 3m

Lots of trainer's out of form in this race and we have excluded the following horses from our thought processes immediately: Waaheb, Treacysenniscorthy, Howaya Aoife, Sizing Joshua, Little Princess, Sea Scorpion, Hollow Crest. We might then remove Battling Spirit, Rightback Atya, Glenabo Bridge and Qery. Could look foolish at 3.30 but we believe trainer form is the most important component of a bet!

Timeform

GLOBAL RACING has turned the corner for his new yard and a second C&D win of the year could be on the cards. Treacysenniscorthy appeals as having more to offer and a market move for him would be significant. Load Up Time is another among the dangers.

The Racing Horse Verdict:

1 LADY WRITER 8/1 (WINNER)  2 GLOBAL RACING 4/1 (4th)  3 LOAD UP TIME  13/2  4 THERELLALWAYSBEONE 12/1 (2nd)

Lady Writer is a Point winner and now beginning to find her feet of late. Encouraging third on first start in handicap company at this venue behind today's rival Global Racing and Thursday's Thurles winner Cher Why Not. Then a solid fourth to Goose Man at Navan since over 2m4f. The return to 3m a plus and cheekpieces added, looks a big player at a nice price.

Found three of the first four but a good priced winner at 8/1.

***

3.50 Punchestown: Richard Maher Memorial Rated Novice Chase

Timeform

IMPACT FACTOR arrives at the top of his game and this represents a good opportunity for him to open his account in this sphere. Riders Onthe Storm should have more to offer over fences and is next best ahead of Dr Mikey.

The Racing Horse Verdict:

1 IMPACT FACTOR 7/4 (2nd)  2 RIDERS ONTHE STORM 11/4 (WINNER)

Robbie Power jockey told us: "Impact Factor looks to have a great chance and the more rain the better. His best performance over fences so far was his last one at Gowran but I put that down to ground more than anything. He needs softer ground and he is now getting the hang of things over fences and hopefully he can get his head in front." Ths hurdle winner and a runner-up in a Grade 2 has taken time to get the hang of chasing and was not impressing in his first few tries, however, he has been better lately and ran into a smart type at Gowran last time (fourth home has won since). About to make the breakthrough.

The Exacta paid €5.10 & CSF €4.76

***

4.20 Punchestown: BoyleSports Grand National Trial Handicap Chase 3m4f150y

Joseph Hanlon's profit to a £1 level-stake is £36.50 when having only one runner on the card (chases) and he saddles Kilkishen at 13/2
T Gibney's profit to a £1 level-stake is £79.50 when having only one runner on the card (chases) and he saddles Agent Boru at 16/1

Timeform

FITZHENRY produced his best effort to date when third in the Paddy Power Chase at Fairyhouse over Christmas, faring best of those held up, and remains one to keep on the right side of (first-time blinkers fitted here). Solomn Grundy also shaped well in the same race and is another to bear in mind. Some Neck and Kilkishen are others of interest.

The Racing Horse Verdict:

1 SOME NECK 13/2  2 GENERAL PRINCIPLE 10/1 (3rd)  3 FITZHENRY 6/1 (4th) 4 SOLOMN GRUNDY 11/2

***

4.50 Punchestown: Punchestown Festival 30th April To 4th May (Pro/Am) INH Flat Race

3/4: Gordon Elliott winners (75%)
Mrs J Harrington's profit to a £1 level-stake is £41.25 when saddling bumper debutants and she sends out Robin Des Sevola at 13/2

MILAN's progeny that have won their first bumper is 55 so represents Cavalry Master 11/2.

Timeform

BATTLE OF MIDWAY only just failed to make a winning debut at Fairyhouse on New Year's Day and sets the standard on that effort. Cats For Cash has finished runner-up on both his starts so far and is the obvious threat, though newcomers Cavalry Master, Robin des Sivola and Reasonable Doubt all need keeping an eye on.

The Racing Horse Verdict:

1 CATS FOR CASH 2/1 2 BATTLE OF MIDWAY 7/2 (3rd) 3 CAVALRY MASTER 6/1

Cats For Cash is a Mahler gelding and out of a half-sister to top-class hurdler Harchibald. Unable to land the odds on Down Royal debut last June, then looked quite green when second in ordinary five-runner contest, still looked a bit short on experience when chasing home better-fancied stablemate Thunder Down Under at Fairyhouse last month. Should be lots more to come from this son of Mahler. Gordon Elliott has sent out three of the last four winners. The eye was drawn to Patrick Mullins riding for Henry de Bromhead but there has been no money for this one so our third choice for today.

We will post an Irish round-up on Monday and provide a racecourse template for Fairyhouse for Wednesday. Specifically we could have done better yesterday but we shone on a light on proceedings, and hope members found it useful...

***

  Today's Pacafi: click here

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