JOHN WILLIAMS 2.10 Musselburgh at 4/6

racingtv.com Handicap Chase (Class 5) 1m7f182y

Pedigree: E7,000 F, E13,000 3yo, E28,000 Tatts Ire June 2014; first foal; dam achieved little in Irish maiden points, out of unraced half-sister to high-class chaser Hi Cloy (best around 2m4f) and to dam of National winner Ballabriggs, family of For Auction.

THE RACING HORSE COMPOSITE

Trainer Form: 2-9 for 22%   (10)
OR: 102                     (10)                                      
Optimum Ground: Good        (10)
Optimum Distance: 2m+       (10)
Jockey: Rachael McDonald     (8)

The Racing Horse Composite: (48)
  
Next best: Cool Valley 2/1

      Win Plc Run  RPR             Win Plc Run  RPR
Life   4   6   24  103    GF-F      0   0   1    87
18/19  1   1   5   101    G         3   3  12   102
Dis    2   2   9   102    GS-HVY    1   3  11   103
Crs    3   2   8   103    6-15rns   3   5  22   103
Cl5    1   1   4   102    12.1-12.7 0   0   0     0

Seeking fourth win at the course

John Williams is a winner of four chases and a point-to-point from 2m to 3m on good and heavy ground. Beaten 1l by Mumgos Debut when second of 5 at 11/2 on his latest outing in a chase at Ayr over 2m on soft ground last month. He carries a big weight today but there is a reason for that as he looks a cut above these rivals and should record a fourth victory on the track. He is currently 3-8 at Musselburgh and appreciates a sound surface so optimum conditions this time around. He couldn't quite hold on against a decent type at Ayr last time, but compensation awaits off a fair mark of 102.

Trainer form

Backing horses in class 5 handicaps is not our preferred option but on this particular race we have the best form, the best horse and the only trainer who has his horses in good form. Stuart Coltherd is 3-10 for 30% with his horses but his runner reads P709PP and is 33/1. The other three trainers are hopelessly out of form. Sandy Thomson is currently 2-9 for 22% and at Musselburgh he has his best figures showing 20-96 for 21% and a level-stake profit of +47.80.

The trainer who runs the danger Cool Valley is William Young Junior but he has not recorded a NH winner since October 2016 and since then he has run 63 horses. At Musselburgh he is 0-14 and his total figures since April 2014 show 6-123 for 5%. Our jockey for the Pacafi is Rachael McDonald and she can ride, she shows 24-233 for 11% and her favourite course is Musselburgh recording 6-32 for 19% (+5.00). When she combines with Thomson they score 17-129 for 13% (+21.25). Jockey bookings are crucial but in the context of this bet we are secure with the jockey booking.

Of his rivals

Importantly collateral form appears to give him the beating of Cool Valley, who is now 0-16 under Rules, and the latter was also 14l behind when the top weight won over 2m4f here in December but has been performing well lately. Brian Hughes rides Duhallowcountry so he may prove best of the Vic Thompson trio, though that’s not saying much.

Timeform

This won't take much winning and it's an excellent chance for JOHN WILLIAMS to quickly resume winning ways back down in class. Cool Valley can place again.

Value

The horse has the optimum credentials to win but the trainer form angle was a big part in us getting involved with a class 5 handicap. Had we been the bookmaker for this race our best price would have been 1/2. A safe conveyance should be enough and we have nothing to fear from the team Cool Valley.

~

     The Racing Horse will update the results of our 2018 Pacafi's as soon as possible especially for those who use percentage of the bank staking which is our preferred option. Our results will show advised odds/best price guaranteed, result, stake, win or lose, balance and strike-rate. The results will be shown at 1pt win stakes. From 1st March 2018 we will use 1 to 2pt win staking when appropriate and most favourable including the use of stake-savers. 

18 John Williams     1.67  WIN   1.00  +0.67  +0.06  S/R  61%
17 King Roland       1.72  WIN   1.00  +0.72  -0.61  S/R  59%
16 With Caution      1.80  WIN   1.00  +0.80  -1.33  S/R  56% 
15 Fast Buck         2.20  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -2.13  S/R  53%
14 Wissahickon       1.36  WIN   1.00  +0.36  -1.13  S/R  57%
13 Angels Breath     1.91  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -1.49  S/R  54%
12 Young Wolf        2.10  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -0.49  S/R  58%
11 Albert Finney (S) 2.63  LOSE  1.25  -1.25  +0.51  S/R  64%
10 American Graffiti 2.63  WIN   1.00  +1.63  +1.76  S/R  70%
 9 Coolanly          1.50  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +0.13  S/R  67%
 8 Dahawi            1.83  WIN   1.00  +0.83  +1.13  S/R  75%
 7 Clan Des Obeaux   1.40  WIN   1.00  +0.40  +0.30  S/R  71%
 6 Poetic Charm      1.36  WIN   1.00  +0.36  -0.10  S/R  67%
 5 Dream Grand Val   1.62  WIN   1.00  +0.62  -0.46  S/R  60%
 4 Andalusa          2.10  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -1.08  S/R  50%
 3 Enthaar           3.75  LOSE  1.25  -1.25  -0.08  S/R  67%
 2 Gantier           1.57  WIN   1.00  +0.57  +1.17  S/R 100% 
 1 Min               1.67  WIN   1.00  +0.60  +0.60  S/R 100%

February SELECTIONS: 18  WIN: 11  LOSE: 7  S/R: 61%  PROFIT: -0.06pts

(114511112133213111)      FINISHED First or Second (72.22%)

20  Lion Hearted     1.57  WIN   1.00  +0.57  +0.06  S/R 55%
19  Nestor Park (S)  3.00  WIN   1.25  +1.75  -0.51  S/R 53%
18  Pym              1.72  WIN   1.00  +0.72  -2.26  S/R 50%
17  Umndeni          2.10  WIN   1.00  +1.10  -2.98  S/R 47%
16  Adjali (S)       2.63  LOSE  1.20  -1.20  -4.08  S/R 44%
15  Jahbath (R4)     1.80  WIN   1.00  +0.68  -2.88  S/R 47%
14  Vandella         1.72  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -3.56  S/R 43%
13  Laskadine        1.40  WIN   1.00  +0.40  -2.56  S/R 46%
12  Downtown Getaway 1.91  WIN   1.00  +0.91  -2.96  S/R 42%
11  Mrs Hyde (S)     2.63  LOSE  1.40  -1.40  -3.87  S/R 36%
10  Manning Estate   2.63  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -2.47  S/R 40%
 9  Jammin Masters   1.91  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -1.47  S/R 44%
 8  Festival Of Ages 2.75  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -0.47  S/R 50%
 -  Birchdale (S)    2.75   NR   0.35  -0.35  +0.53  S/R 57%  
 7  Dares To Dream   2.25  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +0.88  S/R 57%
 6  Court House (R4) 2.00  WIN   1.00  +0.85  +1.88  S/R 67%
 5  Queens Cave      1.67  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +1.03  S/R 60%
 4  Torpillo         1.33  WIN   1.00  +0.33  +2.03  S/R 75%
 3  Reeth            2.20  WIN   1.00  +1.20  +1.70  S/R 67%
 2  Military Law     2.50  WIN   1.00  +1.50  +0.50  S/R 50%
 1  Ontheropes       2.62  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -1.00  S/R  0%

January SELECTIONS: 20  WIN: 11  LOSE: 9  S/R: 55%   PROFIT: +0.06pts

(6111P12-2222112131111)      FINISHED First or Second (85.00%)

1 non-runner but with a losing stake-saver (-0.35)