Newbury Template Racecourse, Racing Trends and Betting Advice for Saturday 2 March 2019
Newbury is a left handed course, galloping with few undulations. One of the fairest courses in the country, though its galloping nature does suit the big, long-striding type. The chase course is regarded as being fairly stiff, though a low casualty rate over the last five seasons contradicts such a view. The fact that many races do not feature big fields and/or not run at a strong pace possibly contributes to such a low figure, as does the generally better standard of horse on show. Leaders are rarely overhauled on the chase run-in for all it often looks as though they might be, especially from the elbow.
FAVOURITES over the last 5 years NON-HANDICAP RACES HANDICAP RACES Hurdle: 39-90 for 43% (-9.73) 23-74 for 31% (-4.47) Chase: 11-32 for 34% (-10.51) 28-106 for 26% (-13.54) NHF: 7-28 for 25% (-9.65) 0-0 for - Total: 57-150 for 38% (-29.89) 51-180 for 28% (-18.01) TOP 5 TRAINERS at Newbury this season Nicky Henderson: 7 wins from 30 for 23% (-2.12) Colin Tizzard: 4 wins from 30 for 13% (-4.41) Warren Greatrex: 3 wins from 9 for 33% (-1.37) Paul Nicholls: 3 wins from 13 for 23% (+4.57) Ben Pauling: 3 wins from 14 for 21% (+19.50) TOP 5 JOCKEYS Newbury this season Barry Geraghty: 4 wins from 7 for 57% (+5.25) Harry Cobden: 4 wins from 22 for 18% (-11.84) Richard Johnson: 4 wins from 25 for 16% (-4.37) Tom Scudamore: 3 wins from 17 for 18% (+5.25) Wayne Hutchinson: 3 wins from 27 for 11% (-15.50) David Bass: 2 wins from 6 for 33% (+6.50) TOP TRAINERS last five seasons to 1 March 2019 Nicky Henderson: 57 wins from 224 for 25% Paul Nicholls: 29 wins from 181 for 16% Philip Hobbs: 27 wins from 150 for 18% Alan King: 23 wins from 198 for 12% Colin Tizzard: 19 wins from 116 for 16% TOP JOCKEYS last five seasons to 1 March 2019 Richard Johnson: 38 wins from 192 for 20% Barry Geraghty: 32 wins from 117 for 28% Nico de Boinville: 23 wins from 92 for 25% Noel Fehily: 20 wins from 142 for 14% Tom Scudamore: 20 wins from 131 for 15%
2.40 Newbury: William Hill Supporting Greatwood Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Grade 3) 2m3f187y ITV4
14/15: Carried 11st 5lbs or less in weight (93%)
13/15: Aged 8yo or younger (87%)
13/15: Ran within the last 5 weeks (87%)
13/15: Won between 1-4 times over fences previously (87%)
12/15: Raced at Newbury (hurdles or fences) previously (80%)
12/15: Won over this trip previously (80%)
11/15: Placed in the top 5 last time out (73%)
..7/10: Won by the Paul Nicholls stable (70%)
10/15: Winning distance – 2 lengths or less (67%)
10/15: Officially rated 139 or higher (67%)
..9/15: Favourites placed (60%)
..8/15: Won by the Paul Nicholls stable (53%)
..8/15: Winners came from the top 3 in the market (53%)
..7/15: Won by a French-bred horse (47%)
..6/15: Aged 8yo (40%)
..6/15: Ran at the Cheltenham Festival (no winners) (40%)
..5/15: Irish-bred horse (33%)
..5/15: Favourites to win (1 joint) (33%)
..2/15: Won by the Pipe yard (13%)
..2/15: Ridden by Nick Scholfield (13%)
..1/15: Won their last race (7%)
Thomas Crapper won the race 12 months ago
Sametegal won the race in 2016
The 2006 renewal was a dead-heat
TOOF for 2019:
Charlie Longsdon 3-55 for 5% (Nightfly 14/1)
Dr Richard Newland 4-30 for 13% (Dustin Des Mottes 14/1)
Plenty to consider but DOLOS could take some pegging back if in the same mood as when winning at Sandown last month, another strong pace back up in trip here sure to suit him. War Sound and Valdez are a couple of the other main contenders.
The Racing Horse Verdict:
1 HAPPY DIVA 13/2 (BetVictor 17.01) 2 WAR SOUND 13/2(William Hill, Betfred and Tote) 3 SAN BENEDETO 16/1 (BetVictor and Boylesports) 4 WARRIORS TALE 12/1 (general)
Happy Diva has been holding form well under this rider and gained reward when winning listed mares' chase over this trip at Huntingdon in January, jumping soundly. Should give another good account. We have noted the trainer coming back into form with two winners and two second-places at good/big prices after a barren spell. Jockey booking not the best and that tempers enthusiasm a little but reflected in the price, as we go to post she is beginning to be supported.
Trainer Kerry Lee told us: "I don't think she's particularly got much in hand with the handicapper, but we don't have any option but to go back against the boys. She deserves to have a go at a race like this and she'll be trying her hardest to win."
Yet again the RACECOURSE TEMPLATES show/prove their value. If they do nothing else it gives members a lay of the land but the reality is they find us WINNERS! Here is a quick recap on the relevance of our Newbury Racecourse Template yesterday:
Race 1: Malachite was the horse of interest for Nicky Henderson and he finished third at 12/1.
Race 2: Our rationale found the 1-2 3 Trifecta £14.90
Race 3: Colin Tizzard, who was flagged up on both our leader-boards won this race with a 6/1 shot!
Race 4: From five horses flagged up our rationale permed the Exacta, CSF and the Trifecta. It paid £15.80, £13.57 and £162 respectively!
Race 5: Negative
Race 6: Flagged up Orchardstown Cross at 13/8 for Jeremy Scott
Race 7: Negative
For a reminder PLEASE VISIT THIS PAGE!
Our preparations for the Cheltenham Festival are well under way and the biggest assignment we have ever undertaken. Check it out here...
Proven mathematical laws are the governing force of horse racing betting. Consequently every bet we place is conceived then predicated from statistical analysis protected by a maths-based edge with perceived value attached. Our formula is simple because we are yet to be convinced that a complication of a system is proportional to profit. So what do we mean by a maths-based edge? It means finding something with a solid mathematical core, something historically profitable and something that is unlikely to change or suffer fatigue going forward. Then, if we can filter negative influences from the original proposal and provide a sound rationale for doing so, we can claim that betting edge.
The absolute key to success in betting is the ability to identify value bet situations where the odds available are greater than the true chance of winning and then to have the discipline to methodically bet only when these situations arise. If this is done the laws of mathematics and probability dictate that in the long term, you will make a profit.
Today's Pacafi: click here
Our information and betting advice is for educational purposes only. Please exercise caution when acting upon our advice and remember that gambling carries risk. No liability is taken by the site or product owner following any of the information given or sold to you. Betting always involves a level of risk and you should never bet more than you can afford to lose.