Racecourse Template for Newbury (Friday 1 March 2019)

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Newbury Template Racecourse, Racing Trends and Betting Advice for Friday 2 March 2019

Newbury is a left handed course, galloping with few undulations. One of the fairest courses in the country, though its galloping nature does suit the big, long-striding type. The chase course is regarded as being fairly stiff, though a low casualty rate over the last five seasons contradicts such a view. The fact that many races do not feature big fields and/or not run at a strong pace possibly contributes to such a low figure, as does the generally better standard of horse on show. Leaders are rarely overhauled on the chase run-in for all it often looks as though they might be, especially from the elbow.

Today the going is good to soft.

FAVOURITES over the last 5 years
NON-HANDICAP RACES                HANDICAP RACES

Hurdle:   39-90 for 43%  (-9.73)   23-73  for 32%  (-3.47)
Chase:    11-32 for 34% (-10.51)   28-106 for 26% (-13.54)
NHF:       7-28 for 25%  (-9.65)    0-0   for  - 
Total:   57-150 for 38% (-29.89)   51-179 for 28% (-17.01)

TOP 5 TRAINERS at Newbury this season
Nicky Henderson: 7 wins from 25 for 28%  (+2.87)
Ben Pauling:     3 wins from 11 for 27% (+22.50)
Philip Hobbs:    3 wins from 17 for 18% (+32.50)
Colin Tizzard:   3 wins from 25 for 12%  (-6.41)
Noel Williams:   2 wins from  4 for 50% (+10.00)

TOP 5 JOCKEYS Newbury this season
Barry Geraghty:   4 wins from  6 for 67%  (+6.25)
Richard Johnson:  4 wins from 22 for 18%  (-1.37)
Harry Cobden:     3 wins from 18 for 17% (-10.04)
Wayne Hutchinson: 3 wins from 25 for 12% (-13.50)
David Bass:       2 wins from  6 for 33%  (+6.50)

TOP TRAINERS at Newbury last five seasons
Nicky Henderson: 57 wins from 219 for 26%
Paul Nicholls:   28 wins from 180 for 16%
Philip Hobbs:    27 wins from 145 for 19%
Alan King:       23 wins from 196 for 12%
Colin Tizzard:   18 wins from 111 for 16%

TOP JOCKEYS at Newbury last five seasons
Richard Johnson:   38 wins from 189 for 20%
Barry Geraghty:    32 wins from 116 for 28%
Nico de Boinville: 23 wins from  90 for 26%
Noel Fehily:       20 wins from 139 for 14%
Tom Scudamore:     19 wins from 129 for 15%

The Racing Horse would like to offer some basic betting advice for Newbury today but our members have our Newbury Racecourse Template fully loaded to see who are the trainers and jockeys to watch. Through this lens we will have a quick look at the racing today and add the comments of Timeform.

1.45: PHYSICOOL CONDITIONAL JOCKEYS' HANDICAP HURDLE 2m4f118y

Nicky Henderson has a course strike-rate of 26% since the start of the 2014/15 season, 28% this season and 24% with hurdlers running between 2m2f and 2m6f and he saddles Malachite at 10/1 (general 08.48). Before placing a bet it is imperative we filter his horses, if we do not bet to win on them are they worth a part stake-saver?

TIMEFORM

BADDESLEY PRINCE (100/30) took a big leap forward on his third qualifying run when runner-up in a Plumpton novice in January, and with the promise of more to come in handicaps over this sort of trip, he has plenty in his favour. Crystal Lad returned to form at Market Rasen last time and a good-value 10 lb claimer can only aid his cause, with Nathans Pride completing the shortlist.

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2.20: IRISH THOROUGHBRED MARKETING JUVENILE HURDLE 2m69y

Paul Nicholls strike-rate with hurdlers at up to 2m2f is 24% and he saddles CHRISTOPHER WOOD. Barry Geraghty's strike-rate at Newbury is 28% but 41% when riding hurdling favourites and he rides the current second-favourite FALDO at 2/1 (08.56).

Despite the claims of the front two ZIZANEUR for Philip Hobbs will not be easy to beat and if his price drifts anymore from 9/2 (Betfair) could be the each-way bet in the race! This one must run a place at least! The Sporting Life says this French import lacks the scope of the front two over hurdles and that may well be true, but these French youngsters are already battle-hardened and if the ground is tacky and not good to soft then he could win. Looking at his run at Ludlow deeper ground might suit him and he surely has the scope to make a chaser one day. Hobbs would have improved him from his French trainer and now puts claimer David Maxwell up and that 5lbs could be crucial at 2.30pm. If we were offered 11/2 we would back this one each-way or without the favourite, certainly must be included in forecast betting...

TIMEFORM 

It looks significant that FALDO now races in the colours of J.P. McManus having chased home a promising one of his first time up over hurdles at Warwick. He looks open to plenty of improvement and is the one to beat. Fontwell-winner Christopher Wood is the obvious danger.

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2.50: OAKLEY COACHBUILDERS HANDICAP CHASE 2m92y

Richard Johnson has a strike-rate at Newbury of 20% and he rides AWAKE AT MIDNIGHT at 7/4 (general).

TIMEFORM

The way AWAKE AT MIDNIGHT tended to jump markedly left at Kempton on Boxing Day was a bit worrying but he wasn't disgraced otherwise and the form of that race is red-hot. He is crying out to be backed off 1lb lower in this company. Eddiemaurice is the obvious danger if backing up his latest effort at Ludlow now returned to a handicap. Pull Together is a likely improver to note.

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3.25: RR ELITE 'NATIONAL HUNT' NOVICES' HURDLE 2m4f118y

Apart from the statistics already given Nicky Henderson has won 2 of the last 8 runnings of this race and today saddles 3. They are GALLAHERS CROSS at 3/1 (general 09.26), Storm Of Intrigue at 50/1 (general) and Interconnected at 10/1 (Ladbrokes). Richard Johnson rides TIDAL FLOW at 4/1 but can of these beat Emitom?

TIMEFORM 

EMITOM defends an unbeaten record following 4 outings and is taken to pass this test before tackling graded company. This is clearly a deep novice though, with Gallahers Cross and Tidal Flow sure to ensure the selection doesn't have it all his own way.

3.55: RICKETY BRIDGE HANDICAP HURDLE 3m52y

Richard Johnson rides VICTARION but Wayne Hutchinson has a 40% strike-rate when riding prominently and riding close to the pace at Newbury is advised if possible, he rides NOTACHANCE 7/1 (general) but was available at 11/1 earlier.

TIMEFORM 

SKIDOOSH is a largely consistent sort who showed improved form granted a step up in trip when successful at Doncaster 9 days ago, staying on well. He looks sure to go well again and can defy a penalty. Jabulani arrives on a handy mark and is feared, along with His Dream and Financial Outcome.

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4.30: INDULGE CHASE (NOVICES' LIMITED HANDICAP) 2m6f93y

Jeremy Scott's profit to a £1 level-stake with only one runner on the card is £64.90 and importantly he saddles ORCHARDSTOWN CROSS at 13/8 (general 09.41). Also, Charlie Mann's profit with just one runner on the card is £70.07 and he saddles LEX TALIONIS at 10/1 (Bet365).

TIMEFORM 

ORCHARDSTOWN CROSS had plenty in hand when beating a big field at Taunton 10 days ago and this unexposed sort should prove hard to beat under a penalty. Cesar Et Rosalie may emerge as the biggest threat despite this distance being shorter than ideal.

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5.00: WEST BERKSHIRE RACING CLUB MARES' STANDARD OPEN NATIONAL HUNT FLAT 2m69y

Important to note that both Alan King and Nicky Henderson have won 2 of the last 6 runnings of this race. King saddles GLASHA'S PEAK at 11/4 (general 10.03) and Henderson saddles NONESUCH at 9/1 (general).

TIMEFORM 

GETARIVER’s Rules debut win isn’t easy to weigh up, but she did it readily and may be up to defying a penalty. Glasha’s Peak seems likely to build on her opening effort, while the well-related Lady In Hiding may fare best of the newcomers.

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OTHER

Colin Tizzard has his name on both leader-boards and he runs 5 at the track today and should be considered.Philip Hobbs has his name on both leader-boards and runs 5 also and he is almost certain to have a winner.

Ben Pauling runs 3 and this season he is 3 wins from 11 for 27% (+22.50). We have noted that despite his good form Paul Nicholls only sends Christopher Wood here today and Harry Cobden rides, looks a tip.

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Proven mathematical laws are the governing force of horse racing betting. Consequently every bet we place is conceived then predicated from statistical analysis protected by a maths-based edge with perceived value attached. Our formula is simple because we are yet to be convinced that a complication of a system is proportional to profit. So what do we mean by a maths-based edge? It means finding something with a solid mathematical core, something historically profitable and something that is unlikely to change or suffer fatigue going forward. Then, if we can filter negative influences from the original proposal and provide a sound rationale for doing so, we can claim that betting edge.

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The absolute key to success in betting is the ability to identify value bet situations where the odds available are greater than the true chance of winning and then to have the discipline to methodically bet only when these situations arise. If this is done the laws of mathematics and probability dictate that in the long term, you will make a profit.

  Today's Pacafi: click here

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