2019 Cheltenham Festival Review

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Over the next few days The Racing Horse will examine/review the information we gave members regarding the 2019 Cheltenham Festival and ask the question - was it all worth it?

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The Racecourse Templates show the land of the land and reveals areas of interest. It is something we believe is increasingly powerful as we use it more. Favourites in non-handicap races over hurdles and chases scored at 44% & 42% respectively and a decent 25% for NHF horses, but returned poor figures of 16% & 17% in handicaps, here is a before and after:

FAVOURITES
NON-HANDICAP RACES (5 YEARS)       HANDICAP RACES (5 YEARS)

Hurdle:   52-119 for 44% (+5.26)    17-104  for 16% (-38.63)
Chase:    55-131 for 42% (-7.90)    21-125  for 17% (-35.92)
NHF:       7-28  for 25% (-4.00)     0-0    for  - 
Total:   114-278 for 41% (-6.63)    38-229  for 17% (-74.54)

Here are the results of the 28 races at the Festival:

FAVOURITES
NON-HANDICAP RACES (5 YEARS)       HANDICAP RACES (5 YEARS)

Hurdle:   1-8  for 12%  (-5.63)     2-5  for 40% (+4.50)
Chase:    4-9  for 44%  (+3.11)     1-5  for 20% (+1.00)
NHF:      1-1  for 100% (+2.00)     0-0  for  - 
Total:    6-18 for 33%  (-0.52)     3-10 for 30% (+5.50)

Before we totaled the results we thought there was a break even total regarding winning favourites but no, had you backed every favourite at Cheltenham you would have banked +4.98pts profit to SP. Despite some big priced winners 9 favourites found their way into the winners enclosure at around 32%. Did our template help members? Clearly the poor return on favourites in non-handicap hurdles was damaging, one more winner was needed to save face but two would have titled us into profit. At this point we cannot help but remember Benie Des Dieux and Sir Erec.

What about our top five trainers for 2017/18, did they have winners? Yes, Willie Mullins and Nicky Henderson had 4 each and Gordon Elliott had 3. So, three trainers were responsible for 11 of the 28 winners (39%). A little obvious perhaps but information that must be factored into proceedings! With regards to Gordon Elliott we thought his return was disappointing and expected him to have at least one more winner if not two, and this negative impacted on our forecasts. His 3 winners came from 45 entries at 6.67% and one of those winners was in the circus race, so clearly a fail!

What about our top five jockeys for 2017/18, did they have winners? Yes, Barry Geraghty rode 2 winners (4/1 & 3/1)) but 3 second places (22/1, 7/2 & 9/2) and 2 third places (18/1 & 9/1). Davy Russell surprisingly drew a blank regarding winners. Harry Skelton had 2 bigger priced winners at 12/1 & 10/1 and Noel Fehily had a massive 50/1 winner for a Willie Mullins horse so some clues here.

Talking of winners we reminded members that 21 of the 28 races at the 2018 Cheltenham Festival were won by just five trainers. They were Gordon Elliott (8), Willie Mullins (7), Nicky Henderson (2), Paul Nicholls (2) and Colin Tizzard (2). Though we had concerns for Tizzard we thought these figures would be reflective and represented a starting point in every race at the festival. So how did they do in 2019?

G Elliott (3)   WINNERS: 5/4, 2/1 and 4/1     
                2nd: 14/1, 20/1, 4/1 and 7/2
                3rd: 33/1, 15/8, 9/1, 14/1 and 40/1
W Mullinns (4)  WINNERS: 6/1, 5/1, 50/1 and 20/1
                2nd: 20/1, 7/1, 25/1, 66/1, 28/1 and 7/2
                3rd: 17/2, 4/1 and 8/1
N Henderson (4) WINNERS: 10/1, 28/1, 4/11 and 20/1
                2nd: 9/2, 3/1, 3/1 and 14/1
                3rd: 18/1
P Nicholls (2)  WINNERS: 4/1 and 9/2
                2nd: 11/1
                3rd: 8/1
C Tizzard (0)   2nd: 4/1

The Racing Horse said a week before of the Festival: "We noted that 21 of the 28 races at the 2018 Cheltenham Festival were won by just 5 trainers and even if those individual numbers are down this year they will still win more than half to two-thirds of the races!"

This year those trainers only had 13 winners (46% of all the races) but we note between them they had 16 second places and of course Benie Des Dieux had bolted clear before falling at the last. Our view/prediction was sound and we hope our members honed onto these trainers. We also flagged up trainers not to back and all of those failed to have a winner, we also voiced the concerns regarding Colin Tizzard and his poor showing affected our final results board.

In conclusion, the Racecourse Template and the associated information did show us the way, not just in finding winners but who to omit, so we hope the members found it advantageous.

What about our nominations, did we help members? You decide! Because many of the fields were big we looked at our first and second choices and perhaps the fairest way to measure us. Of our first two nominations, the following won at advised or best price guaranteed: KLASSICAL DREAM 6/1, DUC DES GENIEVRES 7/1, BEWARE THE BEAR 16/1, TOPOFTHEGAME 4/1, ALTIOR 4/9, TIGER ROLL 6/4, ENVOI ALLEN 9/2, PAISLEY PARK 2/1, SIRUH DU LAC 7/1, PENTLAND HILLS 20/1 and HAZEL HILL 6/1. The prices shown were neither best prices nor exchange prices.

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So, if our members just had a £10 stake on each of these selections (11 winners for 39%) they would have collected £725.00. But, we had 17 losers so this meant we made a PROFIT of £555.00. Included in those results we found Exactas and a Tricast. Other winners found further down our list included A Plus Tard 7/1, Le Breuil 14/1, Band Of Outlaws 13/2, Defi Du Seuil 3/1 and Sire Du Berlais 11/2.

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We will shortly be presenting our Grand National Feature using our Racecourse Template as a backdrop to the racing that day at Aintree. Once again our members will have pertinent information only that the race requires...

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  Today's Pacafi: click here

Proven mathematical laws are the governing force of horse racing betting. Consequently every bet we place is conceived then predicated from statistical analysis protected by a maths-based edge with perceived value attached. Our formula is simple because we are yet to be convinced that a complication of a system is proportional to profit. So what do we mean by a maths-based edge? It means finding something with a solid mathematical core, something historically profitable and something that is unlikely to change or suffer fatigue going forward. Then, if we can filter negative influences from the original proposal and provide a sound rationale for doing so, we can claim that betting edge.

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The absolute key to success in betting is the ability to identify value bet situations where the odds available are greater than the true chance of winning and then to have the discipline to methodically bet only when these situations arise. If this is done the laws of mathematics and probability dictate that in the long term, you will make a profit.

 Disclaimer
Our information and betting advice is for educational purposes only. Please exercise caution when acting upon our advice and remember that gambling carries risk. No liability is taken by the site or product owner following any of the information given or sold to you. Betting always involves a level of risk and you should never bet more than you can afford to lose.

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