Chepstow Racecourse Template (21 March 2019)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

The Racing Horse offers our Racecourse Template for Chepstow for Thursday 21 March 2019. As always we will reveal those important/pertinent figures that matter and help the reader to find the winners! 

We look at the performance of the different disciplines in both handicap and non-handicap National Hunt races at the course. A cursory glance at the two sets of figures show a huge disparity that must be factored into thought processes when looking at hurdle races at the course, less so the chase races.

Assuming they have runners or rides we also highlight the trainers and jockeys most likely to be involved based on current performances.

The going is soft.

CHEPSTOW RACECOURSE TEMPLATE

FAVOURITES
NON-HANDICAP RACES (5 YEARS)       HANDICAP RACES (5 YEARS)

Hurdle:   62-132 for 47%  (+1.62)   40-132 for 30% (-6.97)
Chase:    11-29  for 38%  (-8.04)   52-155 for 34% (+7.84)
NHF:      16-47  for 34%  (-8.46)    0-0   for  - 
Total:    89-208 for 43% (-14.88)   92-287 for 32% (+0.87)

TOP TRAINERS at Chepstow for current season
Paul Nicholls:  9 wins from 32 for 28%  (+6.91)
Philip Hobbs:   8 wins from 42 for 19%  (+8.83)
Evan Williams:  5 wins from 38 for 13% (+47.00)
Colin Tizzard:  5 wins from 34 for 15%  (+2.37)
Nicky Henderson 3 wins from 13 for 23%  (-7.50)

TOP JOCKEYS at Chepstow for current season
Richard Johnson: 10 wins from 42 for 24% (+18.00)
Harry Cobden:     7 wins from 31 for 23% (+16.00)
Adam Wedge:       4 wins from 32 for 13% (+47.50)
S Twiston-Davies: 3 wins from 15 for 20%  (+0.41)
Paddy Brennan:    3 wins from 17 for 18% (+21.50)
22%: Richard Johnson at Chepstow
21%: Sean Bowen at Chepstow
22%: Anthony Honeyball's in Spring
23%: Paul Nicholls at Chepstow since 2014/15
20%: Sam Twiston-Davies at Chepstow
25%: Olly Murphy chasers 19f to 3m
+£70.07: Charlie Mann with one runner on card
+£33.12: Ben Pauling with one runner on card
+£20.58: Evan Williams with bumper debutant
+£15.00: Emma Lavelle with one runner on card
+£19.00: Emma Lavelle with bumper debutant

The Racing Horse Verdict (2.20):

 1 Big Chip And Win 6/1  2 Agent Westy 12/1  3 Rollercoaster 16/1

Timeform

A decidedly trappy opener with a chance taken on BIG CHIP AND PIN. He didn't shape too badly on return from a lengthy absence at Sedgefield last month and he can be expected to strip fitter with that under his belt. Stephanie Sunshine, Rollercoster and Dragon Khan head up the dangers.

The Racing Horse Verdict (2.50):

 1 Deadringerforlove 9/4 (WINNER)  2 Free 3/1  3 Episode 13/2 (3rd)

Timeform

It is a concern DEADRINGERFORLOVE failed to kick on in bumpers, but she could flourish now jumping and her debut fourth to the smart Silver Forever at this venue certainly reads well. Useful Flat recruit Free is an obvious threat, with Fair Kate and Episode also fancied to feature.

The Racing Horse Verdict (3.25):

 1 Kingsplace 5/4 (2nd)  2 Deise Aba 3/1  3 Blackjack Kentucky 8/1 (3rd)

Timeform

DEISE ABA disappointed back from a break at Ascot last month, but such was the impression he created on his debut that he has to be worth another chance. Kingsplace will be suited by 3m and looks the main threat ahead of New Age Dawning and Densfirth.

Blackjack Kentucky looks one for handicaps according to trainer Paul Nicholls and he is not confident about winning this race given the competition. He will be running on and could make third place. We would like to be wrong but we have been told that 8/1 is NOT value!

The Racing Horse Verdict (4.00):

 1 Angels Antics 12/1 - NON RUNNER  2 Sandhurst Lad 10/3 (3rd)  3 Steps And Stairs 12/1

Timeform

THE LION DANCER went from strength to strength last spring, winning his last 3 starts, and can defy an 11-month absence with his yard in good form. Sandhurst Lad has taken well to fences this season, beating a subsequent winner at Wincanton last month, and is the obvious threat. Newtown Lad is potentially well treated if bouncing back to form.

The Lion Dancer needs to be seen walking in the paddock and if there is any money for him, if positive he is a big player, if...

The Racing Horse Verdict (4.35):

 1 Treasure Dillon 5/2 (WINNER)  2  Calarules 11/1  3 Versifier 40/1

Timeform

 Not many with convincing profiles and TREASURE DILLON is chanced in the hope he can build on last week's second at Sedgefield under Mitchell Bastyan. Helford River and Hawkerland are potential improvers now handicapping, while Great Fairy isn't without a chance on an earlier run here this season.

The Racing Horse Verdict (5.05):

 1 Subway Surf 10/11 (WINNER)  2 Just Gone Midnight 10/1   3 Vienna Court 5/1 (2nd)

Timeform

SUBWAY SURF just about surpassed her winning bumper form when third in a strong race under a penalty at Ascot last month and she is selected to successfully concede weight all round. Miss Jeanne Moon could be the pick of the Mulholland trio, while Streets of Fire represents a predominantly Flat yard but she was an easy winner between the flags last time.

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TRAINER FORM

Top trainer at the track this year is Paul Nicholls. We absolutely hate it when trainers have two runners in a race but with two different owners and that is what he has done today. Our Blackjack Kentucky does not only have to beat horses by rival trainers but has to beat one from his own stable and a conflict of interest. I am not going to Chepstow today because I might make my feelings known. These two are now his only runners at the course and we do not think either can beat the favourite.

Philip Hobbs only has one runner at Chepstow in Deise Aba and that one has a great chance but he also runs three at Ludlow and almost certain to have a winner.

Evan Williams runs four at Chepstow (2 at Ludlow) and looks to have a real chance with Treasure Dillon trading at around 5/2.

It's official - Colin Tizzard is hopelessly out of form at the moment and shows just 1 winner from his last 45 runners and 2-60 for March, what a disaster and this now explains his poor Cheltenham. He runs two at the course today, both with some sort of chance on form, but they will not be carrying our money just at the moment.

Nicky Henderson has no runners at Chepstow today but ought to have at least one winner from three at Ludlow.

Champion jockey Richard Johnson has five rides at Chepstow and certain to pick up place money and must go close to riding at least one winner.

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Coming up:

2019 Cheltenham Festival Review

.

Racecourse Template for Newbury (Saturday 23 March 2019)

.

Dubai World Cup 2019 (Saturday 30 March 2019)

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CHEPSTOW has 32 meetings annually, both flat and jump racing, you can be sure there will be a fixture to suit you, your friends and family. 

Telephone: 01291 622 260 and Fax: 01291 627 061

Email: info@chepstow-racecourse.co.uk

Address: Chepstow Racecourse, Chepstow, Monmouthshire, NP16 BE

Children aged 17 & under go FREE

PARKING IS FREE

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  Today's Pacafi: click here

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