Racecourse Template for Doncaster (30 March 2019)

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The Racing Horse offers our powerful RACECOURSE TEMPLATE, RACING TRENDS and BETTING ADVICE for the Doncaster Meeting on Saturday 30 March 2019 which includes the Lincoln Handicap. The going during the week had been described as good to soft but with two dry days to come the soft will disappear from the going title.

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 Non-handicap favourites win at 42%

First, we look at the performance of the different disciplines in both non-handicap and handicap races. We note the 2yos favourites in non-handicap and handicap races fare really well winning 44% and 43% of races and make a level stake profit in both types. The 5-year sample is quite big showing 81-185 for 44% (+13.18) when adding the two race types together.

Profiling

The Racecourse Templates are underpinned with Racing Trends. The profiling of races help sift/filter the contenders from the pretenders and gives an overview of what type of entry combination are most likely to prosper. Equally, it reveals negative traits making it an essential tool/information for layers. Finally we offer our astute betting advice as part of a trilateral approach. Make no mistake, this is a comprehensive assemblage is a powerful betting tool.

DONCASTER FAVOURITES (5 years)
Non-handicap                     Handicap
2yo:    66-150 for 44% (+4.11)   15-35  for 43%  (+9.07)
3yo:    53-125 for 42% (-4.81)   70-207 for 34%  (+2.77)
4yo+:   24-62  for 39% (+3.52)   73-299 for 24% (-52.21)
Total: 143-337 for 42% (+2.82)  158-541 for 29% (-40.36)

TOP 5 TRAINERS at Doncaster for 2018
Richard Fahey:   10 wins from 77 for 13%  (+8.25)
Roger Varian:     9 wins from 36 for 25%  (-9.84)
Mark Johnston:    8 wins from 39 for 21%  (-1.75)
Saeed bin Suroor: 6 wins from 18 for 33%  (+7.85)
Ian Williams:     6 wins from 21 for 29% (+11.12)

TOP 5 TRAINERS at Doncaster last 5 years
Richard Fahey:  44 wins from 462 for 10%
Richard Hannon: 39 wins from 309 for 13%
Roger Varian:   38 wins from 156 for 24%
John Gosden:    28 wins from 160 for 18%
Mark Johnston:  25 wins from 176 for 14%

TOP 5 JOCKEYS at Doncaster for 2018
Andrea Atzeni:  13 wins from 59 for 22% (-19.09)
Daniel Tudhope: 10 wins from 43 for 23% (+11.00)
P J McDonald:    8 wins from 51 for 16%  (-1.50)
Jamie Spencer:   7 wins from 37 for 19% (+22.61)
James Doyle:     6 wins from 33 for 18% (-11.25)

TOP 5 JOCKEYS at Doncaster for past 5 years
Andrea Atzeni:  55 wins from 217 for 25%
Jamie Spencer:  35 wins from 177 for 20%
Ryan Moore:     30 wins from 138 for 22%
William Buick:  29 wins from 157 for 18%
Daniel Tudhope: 28 wins from 182 for 15%

Trainers & Jockeys

The Racecourse Template suggests we take a long look at trainers Roger Varian, Saeed bin Suroor, Mark Johnston, Ian Williams, John Gosden and Richard Hannon. Richard Fahey is 0-22 for March 2019 and only records two second places so backing one of his to win at this moment in time looks unwise! He runs 12 more tomorrow but none will carry our money. Of the jockeys Andrea Atzeni, Daniel Tudhope, Jamie Spencer and Ryan Moore rides this course well.

1.50: Unibet Cammidge Trophy (Listed) 6f ITV4

14/15: Aged 7yo or younger (93%)
13/15: Aged between 4-6yo (87%)
13/15: Won no more than 5 times before (87%)
13/15: Carried 9st 2lbs or more in weight (87%)
13/15: Returned 14/1 or shorter in the betting (87%)
11/15: Winning distance – 1 length or less (73%)
11/15: Raced at Doncaster, Ascot, Lingfield or Windsor last time out (73%)
10/15: Won over 6f before (67%)
10/15: Last ran 4 months or longer ago (67%)
..9/15: Rated 102+ (60%)
..9/15: Finished in the top 4 last time out (60%)
..9/15: Had raced at Doncaster before (60%)
..6/10: Winners from stalls 9-16 (inc) (60%)
..8/15: Came from outside the top 3 in the betting (53%)
..7/15: Unplaced favourites (47%)
..3/15: Won last time out (20%)
..3/15: Winning favourites (or joint) (20%)
..3/15: Won at Doncaster before (20%)
..0/10: No winners from stalls 1 or 2 (0%)

The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 9/1
The 2006 running was staged at Redcar and the 2007 running staged at Newcastle.

Hold-up horses normally are not favoured at this 6f trip

Timeform 

INVINCIBLE ARMY was some way below his best when last seen at Newbury in July, yet James' Tate's charge had previously confirmed himself a smart sprinter (dual Group 3 winner) and he is well worth another chance on return. Arbalet's efforts in defeat last season where commendable and he is feared, whilst the thoroughly likeable Eirene can provide a spot of value of the remainder.

The Racing Horse Verdict:

1 INVINCIBLE ARMY 4/1 (WINNER)  2 EQUILATERAL 7/2 (3rd)  3 ARBALET 13/2

Invincible Army was a smart 2yo who landed Group 3 Pavilion Stakes (6f) on return last spring, today is a Listed race. Good second in Sandy Lane next time and whilst he didn't scale same heights final 2 starts he is the one to beat and 10/3 looks attractive.

Eirine (D Ivory 2-50 for 4%) was not considered for places given the poor trainer form (UNPLACED)

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2.25: Unibet Spring Mile Handicap (Class 2) 1m ( Str) ITV4 

14/17: Carried 8st 13lbs or more (82%)
14/17: Aged 4yo (82%)
14/17: Finished fourth or worse last time out (82%)
13/17: Returned a double-figure price in the betting (76%)
11/17: Won over a mile before (65%)
..9/17: Won from a single-figure draw (53%)
..2/17: Winning favourites (12%)
..2/17: Won last time out (12%)
..2/17: Winners from stalls 3-7 (inclusive) (12%)
..1/17: Aged older than 6yo (6%)
..1/17: Won a race at Doncaster before (6%)

Lord Of The Rock won the race in 2016
Richard Fahey has trained the winner in 2010 & 2014
High Acclaim (50/1) win the race in 2018

Timeform 

CALVADOS SPIRIT is worth forgiving his reappearance run in Ireland last weekend (poorly drawn) and remains the sort who could come good soon for Richard Fahey. Al Jellaby has been unable to justify favouritism on both starts this year but connections' evidently think he's well treated and the return to turf could help. Petrus, Exec Chef and Sod's Law also make the shortlist.

The Racing Horse Verdict:

1 RAMPANT LION 9/1  2 EXEC CHEF 7/1 (2nd)  3 AL JELLABY 9/1 (3rd)

Rampant Lion bettered any of last year's turf efforts for Mark Johnston on AW for new yard this winter, winning 12-runner event at Kempton last month. More on under a penalty but clearly arrives in top form.

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3.00: Unibet Doncaster Mile Stakes (Listed) 1m (Str) ITV4 

6/6: Last ran 4+ months ago (100%)
6/6: Returned 7/1 or shorter (100%)
5/6: Rated 106+ (83%)
5/6: Aged between 5-7yo (83%)
5/6: Won over at least 1m before (83%)
5/6: Returned 5/1 or shorter (83%)
4/6: Winners from stalls 2 or 4 (2 each) (67%)
4/6: Had won 6+ times before (67%)
3/6: Winning favourites (50%)
3/6: Ran at Ascot last time out (50%)
1/6: Won last time out (16%)

Zabeel Prince (10/11 fav) won the race in 2018

Timeform 

SHARJA BRIDGE produced a Group-level performance when signing off 2018 with a big-field handicap success at Ascot and this is a good starting point this term before his sights are raised. It will be interesting to see what David O'Meara can do with Remarkable, but Red Starlight appeals as the safe forecast.

The Racing Horse Verdict:

1 SHARJAH BRIDGE 8/11 (WINNER)  2 RED STARLIGHT 10/1 (2nd)  3 CIRCUS COUTURE 17/2 (BetVictor)

Exacta: £3.90  CSF: £3.90

Low-mileage 5yo who was really strong at the finish when landing a 20-runner handicap over this trip at Ascot in October. That level is the best on offer and he's likely to progress again this year. Hard to find a real rival and of Pacafi standard.

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Unibet Lincoln Heritage Handicap (Class 2) 1m (Str)

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2019 Dubai World Cup (Group 1) 1m2f

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  Today's Pacafi: click here

Proven mathematical laws are the governing force of horse racing betting. Consequently every bet we place is conceived then predicated from statistical analysis protected by a maths-based edge with perceived value attached. Our formula is simple because we are yet to be convinced that a complication of a system is proportional to profit. So what do we mean by a maths-based edge? It means finding something with a solid mathematical core, something historically profitable and something that is unlikely to change or suffer fatigue going forward. Then, if we can filter negative influences from the original proposal and provide a sound rationale for doing so, we can claim that betting edge.

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The absolute key to success in betting is the ability to identify value bet situations where the odds available are greater than the true chance of winning and then to have the discipline to methodically bet only when these situations arise. If this is done the laws of mathematics and probability dictate that in the long term, you will make a profit.

 Disclaimer
Our information and betting advice is for educational purposes only. Please exercise caution when acting upon our advice and remember that gambling carries risk. No liability is taken by the site or product owner following any of the information given or sold to you. Betting always involves a level of risk and you should never bet more than you can afford to lose.

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