The Racing Horse offers our powerful RACECOURSE TEMPLATE and BETTING ADVICE for the Chelmsford Meeting on Monday 1 April 2019. The going is standard
Looking at the performance of the favourites in non-handicap and handicap races we note the 2yo in non-handicap strike at 47% but 3yos hit 51% with 4yos+ scoring at 48% so a great course for favourites. Without reading these figures could our members have imagined those numbers? This represents our starting point for thought processes for races at Chelmsord but for tomorrow there is just one race that is not a handicap. Cutting and pasting the figures below might help further down the line.
Chemsford FAVOURITES (5 years)
2yo: 87-187 for 47% (+9.50) 36-92 for 39% (+8.17)
3yo: 118-233 for 51% (-12.25) 123-427 for 29% (-98.67)
4yo+: 31-65 for 48% (+2.08) 273-806 for 34% (-42.08)
Total: 236-485 for 49% (-0.67) 432-1325 for 33% (-132.59)
TOP 5 TRAINERS at Chelmsford for 2018
Michael Appleby: 7 wins from 40 for 18% (-10.65)
Henry Spiller: 4 wins from 16 for 25% (+17.00)
David Evans: 4 wins from 21 for 19% (+10.50)
Derek Shaw: 4 wins from 22 for 18% (+4.87)
Charlie Wallis: 4 wins from 22 for 18% (+14.50)
TOP 5 TRAINERS at Chelmsford last 5 years
Mark Johnston: 62 wins from 383 for 16%
Michael Appleby: 46 wins from 436 for 11%
David Simcock: 46 wins from 237 for 19%
Stuart Williams: 45 wins from 292 for 15%
John Gosden: 42 wins from 184 for 23%
TOP 5 JOCKEYS at Chelmsfor for 2018
Nicky Mackay: 6 wins from 8 for 75% (+27.86)
Adam Kirby: 6 wins from 29 for 21% (+9.33)
Richard Kingscote: 4 wins from 16 for 25% (+11.61)
Callum Shepherd: 4 wins from 18 for 22% (+29.25)
Paddy Mathers: 4 wins from 28 for 14% (-1.12)
TOP 5 JOCKEYS at Chelmsford for past 5 years
Luke Morris: 84 wins from 784 for 11%
Adam Kirby: 62 wins from 366 for 17%
Sil De Sousa: 60 wins from 302 for 20%
Jim Crowley: 59 wins from 264 for 22%
Oisin Murphy: 52 wins from 288 for 18%
1.30: Eve Johnson Houghton's profit to £1 level stake with horses racing after a break is £28.37 SHORTER SKIRT at 7/2 (WINNER)
George Margarson's profit to £1 level stake with horses racing after a break is £23.20 PAINTED DREAM at 6/1 (3rd)
2.00: James Tate's strike rate with handicap debutants is 16% SHIMMERING DAWN at 7/2 (WINNER)
3.40: Derek Shaw's profit to £1 level stakes with favourites is £20.66 and £22.70 when having one runner on the Flat HARBOUR VISION at 9/4 to 7/2 (Unplaced)
4.10: Mark Johnston's strike rate with handicap debutants is 16% MUSTADUN at 3/1 (3rd) Mustadun didn't get the run of the race but retains potential from his current mark.
4.45: Jonathan Portman's profit to £1 level stake when having one runner at a Flat meeting is £96.48. Portman's profit to a £1 level stake with horses running after a break is £38.00 CHARMED SPIRIT at 25/1 into 10/1 (Unplaced)
John Gosden's strike rate is 23% since the start of the 2015 season at Chelmsford FANFARONADE at 8/1 (3rd)
5.15: Phil McEntee's profit to a £1 level stake with horses running after a break is £48.00 ROC ASTRALE at 25/1 (Unplaced)
Top trainer and jockey
So, top trainer Mark Johnston has three runners at Chelmsford in Diva D 2.00, Mustadum 4.10 and Rock Up In Style 4.45. One might expect him to have a winner. Luke Morris has five good rides and we expect him to have a winner but conscious he is a low strike rate jockey, we note his last 32 rides has produced just one winner (6-84 for 7% for March) but he does ride absolutely anything...
BEST BET of the DAY!
The BEST BET at Chelmsford looks to be SHORTER SKIRT 1.30 Chemsford at 6/4 out to 7/2 (WINNER). Shorter Skirt ran to a fairly useful level when runner-up three times over 6f on Polytrack/turf last summer. He has been off since finishing last of five in 7f conditions race (first-time cheekpieces, removed) in September.
Interesting to note that 5 of the 7 trainers competing are out of form with their horses in this rac. Eve Johnson Houghton had a winner in both February and March from a small number of runners and running at 20%. The money will probably come for the Oisin Murphy second favourite so it is possible the 6/4 could be 7/4 come post-time.
At this moment in time we are heavily preparing for the Aintree Festival and the first drafts of the three days will be completed tomorrow at the latest. We intend to provide a similar service to our members as the one for the Cheltenham Festival.
On a personal note our horse Pentland Hills runs in the Doom Bar Aniversary 4yo Juvenile Hurdle (Class 1) over 2m209y on Thursday and is currently available at 13/8. We have Band Of Outlaws 7/4 who is rated 4lbs inferior. Full betting advice will appear here once we have received the opinions of our trainer Nicky Henderson. At this stage we are very confident we have the best horse in the race and that Pentland Hills could be special! He came out of his Triumph Hurdle win very well and the noises from Seven Barrows are very positive,
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