Racecourse Template for Windsor (8 April 2019)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

The Racing Horse offers our powerful Racecourse Template for Windsor. 

The course is laid out in an unusual figure of eight, and so in races of 12 furlongs or more horses have to go both left and right handed. The course is very flat but its configuration means that it is quite sharp and doesn’t suit long striding horses.

First we look at the performance of the different age-groups in both handicap and non-handicap races. Over the past 5 years it has been an excellent track for winning favourites APART from those aged 4yos and older racing in handicaps. If we removed those 4yos and older in handicaps we have some amazing statistics with 231 winners from 522 runners for 44% and a level stake profit of +35.22. 

RACECOURSE TEMPLATE Going: Good (GoingStick: 7.9) (Showers)

WINDSOR FAVOURITES (5 years)
Non-handicap                       Handicap
2yo:     66-132 for 50%  (+8.90)   8-18   for 44%  (+5.88)
3yo:     54-113 for 48%  (-1.33)   84-223 for 38% (+11.88)
4yo+:    19-36  for 53%  (+9.89)   63-220 for 29% (-21.60)
Total:  139-281 for 49% (+17.46)  155-461 for 34%  (-3.84)

TOP 5 TRAINERS at Windsor for 2018
Richard Hannon: 15 wins from 81 for 19% (-12.14)
Clive Cox:       8 wins from 48 for 17%  (+7.22)
Mick Channon:    7 wins from 29 for 24%  (+7.33)
John Gosden:     6 wins from 17 for 35%  (-3.31)
Mark Johnston:   6 wins from 20 for 30%  (+2.83)

TOP 5 TRAINERS at Windsor last 5 years
Richard Hannon: 64 wins from 409 for 16%
Clive Cox:      40 wins from 187 for 21%
Roger Varian	31 wins from 100 for 31%
Ralph Beckett	26 wins from 128 for 20%
David Evans	24 wins from 241 for 10%

TOP 5 JOCKEYS at Windsor for 2018
Adam Kirby:   13 wins from 71 for 18% (-14.09)
Oisin Murphy: 12 wins from 70 for 17%  (-8.11)
Tom Marquand: 10 wins from 73 for 14% (-28.70)
James Doyle:   9 wins from 35 for 26% (-12.63)
S De Sousa:    6 wins from 14 for 43%  (+5.61)

TOP 5 JOCKEYS at Windsor last 5 years
Adam Kirby:    56 wins from 286 for 20%	
Oisin Murphy:  35 wins from 236 for 15%	
James Doyle:   34 wins from 167 for 20%	
Andrea Atzeni: 33 wins from 129 for 26%	
Ryan Moore:    31 wins from  97 for 32%

Richard Hannon uses four jockey for five runners

Richard Hannon is easily the top trainer at Windsor and tomorrow he runs five at the track. They are Lexington Quest 2.30 at 9/2, Days Of Glory 3.20 at 11/4, Lexington Warlord 3.20 at 20/1, Embour 4.20 at 17/2 and Mr Tyrrell 4.50 at 11/4. Of these five horses they are ridden by four different jockeys which suggests there is no stable jockey per se. It is reasonable to expect Hannon to have one winner at this track given his big winning numbers. Prices are general and much better prices can be found on a search. The trainer is 11-86 for 13% for this year.

Clive Cox and his rank POOR form

Second best trainer at the course is Clive Cox but his horses are a cause for concern. April shows 0-4 for 0%, March 1-24 for 4%, February 1-17 for 6%. We cannot get involved with his horses at the moment, better to watch. He runs the 9/4 favourite Lethal Missile in the last race to be ridden by top jockey at the course Adam Kirby - would you back him given the trainer form?

John Gosden entry

Having sent three to Redcar trainer John Gosden sends just one to Windsor. Will Of Iron was only fifth of seven for a novice at Newcastle (1m, AW) three months ago so this 3yo Invincible Spirit colt does not shout winner. That said, he was sent off as a 3/1 second favourite then dwelt, held up, reminder and green early so it is reasonable to expect a different horse this time around. John Gosden has also won the race twice in the last 10 years.

PERTINENCE:

2.20: Pace forecast is very strong
John Ryan's profit to a £1 level stake with horses running after a break is £27.00 (PRINCESS FLORENCE)
Rod Millman's profit to a £1 level stake with horses running after a break is £24.00 (COBWEB CATCHER)
Paul Cole's strike rate with handicap debutants is 17% (MELYA)

2.50: Draw bias favours high
Dean Ivory's profit to a £1 level stake with debutants is £39.00 (DOVER LIGHT)
The number of ACCLAMATION's progeny that have won on flat debut is 58 (CHATTANOOGA BOY)
The number of DUBAWI (IRE)'s progeny that have won on flat debut is 79 (MAKING HISTORY)

3.20:
Martyn Meade's profit to a £1 level stake when having one runner at a flat meeting is £23.51 (LUMINATION)
Eve Johnson Houghton's profit to a £1 level stake with horses running after a break is £31.87 (SMITH)

3.50:
John Butler's profit to a £1 level stake with horses running after a break is £59.82 (BRIGAND, FACE LIKE THUNDER and ENZO)
James Eustace's profit to a £1 level stake with horses running after a break is £34.50 (HIGHFALUTING)

4.20: Pace forecast is very strong
Mick Channon's has won this race twice in past 6 runnings (DIAMOND DOUGAL)
Rod Millman's profit to a £1 level stake with horses running after a break is £24.00 (HANDYTALK)

4.50:
William Muir's profit to a £1 level stake with horses running in first time headgear is £52.62 (CUTTIN' EDGE)

5.20: Pace forecast is very strong
Clive Cox has won the last two runnings of this races.
Brian Meehan's profit to a £1 level stake with horses running after a break is £72.72 (DARK GLORY)
Charlie Fellowes's profit to a £1 level stake with horses running after a break is £18.13 (PETITS FOUR)

Our Racecourse Templates have been well received and the intention is to build, get more involved and produce them more regularly when time allows. Over the last couple of years we have since saved our trends information and now have a bank of numbers ready to edit and update for relevance. When the Racecourse Templates and Racing Trends are used together they become even more powerful and recent postings have proved their pertinence!

Using them at the Cheltenham and Aintree Festivals was a big success and we hope members found it at least useful/entertaining. From here we will 'up' our information on all big races and especially those on a Saturday. For example, this weekend we have the Scottish Grand National at Ayr and we will cover it as fully as we can, giving members all the tools they need to find the winner, or at least aid the process.

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Our information and betting advice is for educational purposes only. Please exercise caution when acting upon our advice and remember that gambling carries risk. No liability is taken by the site or product owner following any of the information given or sold to you. Betting always involves a level of risk and you should never bet more than you can afford to lose.

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