The Racing Horse offers our powerful RACECOURSE TEMPLATE, RACING TRENDS and BETTING ADVICE for the Scottish Grand National on Saturday 13 April 2019
First, we look at the performance of the different disciplines in both handicap and non-handicap National Hunt races. Favourites in hurdle and NHF Non-Handicap races have a fantastic strike rate recording 63 winners from 125 races for a better than 50% strike rate and the significance should not be lost. Conversely, backing every favourite over the past 5 years in Handicaps at Ayr produced a profit of +23.56pts. Trainer Nicky Richards and jockey Brian Hughes play the course best.
The Racecourse Templates are underpinned with Racing Trends. The profiling of races help sift/filter the contenders from the pretenders and gives an overview of what type of entry combination are most likely to prosper. Equally, it reveals negative traits making it an essential tool/information for layers. Finally we offer our astute betting advice as part of a trilateral approach. Make no mistake, this is a comprehensive assemblage is a powerful betting tool.
FAVOURITES NON-HANDICAP RACES (5 YEARS) HANDICAP RACES (5 YEARS) Hurdle: 42-81 for 52% (-5.76) 48-143 for 34% (+1.08) Chase: 4-14 for 29% (-7.05) 57-141 for 40% (+22.49) NHF: 21-44 for 48% (+2.12) 0-0 for - Total: 67-139 for 48% (-10.69) 105-284 for 37% (+23.56) TOP 5 TRAINERS at Ayr this season Nicky Richards: 8 wins from 35 for 23% (-8.46) N W Alexander : 7 wins from 54 for 13% (+12.50) Gordon Elliott: 6 wins from 17 for 35% (+2.46) Olly Murphy: 4 wins from 11 for 36% (-1.50) Julia Brooke: 3 wins from 7 for 43% (+8.25) TOP 5 TRAINERS at Ayr last 5 years Nicky Richards: 46 wins from 193 for 24% Lucinda Russell: 38 wins from 353 for 11% N. W. Alexander: 31 wins from 268 for 12% Stuart Crawford: 19 wins from 151 for 13% Donald McCain: 19 wins from 112 for 17% TOP 5 JOCKEYS at Ayr this season Brian Hughes: 11 wins from 57 for 19% (-0.11) Henry Brooke: 6 wins from 28 for 21% (+28.37) Aidan Coleman: 5 wins from 13 for 38% (-2.77) Ross Chapman: 5 wins from 28 for 18% (-7.75) Grant Cockburn: 4 wins from 16 for 25% (+38.00) TOP 5 JOCKEYS at Ayr last 5 years Brian Hughes: 61 wins from 294 for 21% Derek Fox: 19 wins from 182 for 10% Henry Brooke: 18 wins from 142 for 13% Craig Nichol: 15 wins from 160 for 9% Ross Chapman: 14 wins from 69 for 20%
The Scottish Grand National is run over close to 4m with close to 27 fences to jump and 30 runners so once again we really need the trends to sort the pretenders from the contenders. On Friday we will remind members which trainers are currently out of form and those who meet our first red line.
What is the first red line I hear you ask?
There are three important trends to follow, those who ran 57 days or less ago, aged 8yo or older and one who finished in the top 6 last time out.
Generally the trends suggest backing a horse with 10st 9lbs or less though recently it is worth noting that 3 of the last 6 winners carried 11st 3lbs or more, though Joe Farrell won last year at 33/1 carrying 10st 6lbs. It is not a kind race for favourites with just 1 in the last 16 winning.
Coral Scottish Grand National Handicap Chase (Grade 3) 3m7f176y
16/16: Last ran 57 days or less ago (100%)
14/16: Finished in the top 6 last time out (88%)
14/16: Aged 8yo or older (88%)
13/16: Fallen or unseated no more than once during their careers (81%)
12/16: Carried 10st 9lbs or less (75%)
12/16: Returned a double-figure price (75%)
11/16: Finished in the first three last time out (69%)
11/16: Aged between 8-10yo (69%)
....2/3: Trained by Paul Nicholls (67%)
10/16: Came from the first 7 in the betting market (63%)
10/16: Won over 3m1f or further (63%)
10/16: Last raced between 30-57 days ago (63%)
..5/16: Won over 3m7f or further before (31%)
..5/16: Won last time out (31%)
....2/7: Won by a previous winner of the race (28%)
..3/16: Returned 15/2 in the betting (19%)
..2/16: Ran in the Grimthorpe Chase (Doncaster) last time out (13%)
..1/16: Winning favourites (6%)
..1/71: Won by a 12yo or older (1%)
The average winning SP in the last 16 runnings is 21/1
Last 16 Winners
2018: JOE FARRELL (33/1)
2017: VICENTE (9/1 jfav)
2016: VICENTE (14/1)
2015: WAYWARD PRINCE (25/1)
2014: AL CO (40/1)
2013: GODSMEJUDGE (12/1)
2012: MERIGO (15/2)
2011: BESHABAR (15/2)
2010: MERIGO (18/1)
2009: HELLO BUD (12/1)
2008: IRIS de BALME (66/1)
2007: HOT WELD (14/1)
2006: RUN FOR PADDY (33/1)
2005: JOES EDGE (20/1)
2004: GREY ABBEY (12/1)
2003: RYALUX (15/2)
The Racing Horse used poor trainer form value and those who ran more than 57 days ago to eliminate the following: Vintage Clouds, Cloth Cap, Geronimo, Doing Fine, Brian Boranha, Cogry, Mysteree, Acdc, Kingswell Theatre and Morney Wing. Next up we want a horse aged 8yo or older and this removes Blue Flight, Beau Du Brizais, Chic Name and Dingo Dollar. We wanted a runner with 6th place or better last time out, this filtered Arthur's Gift, Skipthecuddles, Impulsive Star, Red Infantry, Sizing Codelco. This brings the field down from 28 to 9.
Beware The Bear has to carry 11st 12lbs and that looks a big ask and he is removed from our 1-2. The next step is look for those aged 8-10 and reflected 11/16 and 69% of the trends, this in turn removes 11yos Rathlin Rose and Carole's Destrier and this leaves us with 6 contenders. They are in betting order: BIG RIVER 10/1, CROSSHUE BOY 12/1, CROSSPARK 14/1, CHIDSWELL 22/1, TAKINGRISKS 28/1 and VAN GOGH DU GRANIT 66/1.
CROSSHUE BOY saw off the reopposing Dingo Dollar in the novice handicap at this meeting last season and it would appear that he's had his campaign geared around this race. He's selected to take the prize back to Ireland ahead of the likes of Vintage Clouds, who looks sure to go well if none the worse for his early fall at Aintree, Impulsive Star, Cloth Cap and the progressive Blue Flight.
The Racing Horse Verdict
1 TAKINGRISKS 28/1 (WINNER) 2 CHIDSWELL 22/1 (PU) 3 BIG RIVER 10/1 (5th) 4 CROSSPARK 14/1 (2nd)
Totally disagree with Timeform re Crosshue Boy's campaign has been geared around this race. Running a horse over a 2m4f trip just 8 days ago before a very big race cannot be considered the perfect preparation? I have been involved in racing all my life and perfect preparation would be better spaced! That said he has followed quickly in the past but not when winning a Grand National. It is almost certain he has a better chance than most and will be competitive and reaches our final filter.
Nicky Richards looks to have a real chance of winning this year and it was difficult to separate his two runners but Takingrisks ticks all of our boxes except for optimum ground. His trainer has called his charge an uncomplicated horse that likes soft ground, the ground is expected to be good to soft and just inside our remit, but the price is reflected into those optimum going concerns.
Update: Obviously a great result with Takingrisks winning at 28/1. The Exacta paid £408.90 and the CSF £252.60 had our member permed the winner with our other selection Crosspark.
Today's Pacafi: click here
Proven mathematical laws are the governing force of horse racing betting. Consequently every bet we place is conceived then predicated from statistical analysis protected by a maths-based edge with perceived value attached. Our formula is simple because we are yet to be convinced that a complication of a system is proportional to profit. So what do we mean by a maths-based edge? It means finding something with a solid mathematical core, something historically profitable and something that is unlikely to change or suffer fatigue going forward. Then, if we can filter negative influences from the original proposal and provide a sound rationale for doing so, we can claim that betting edge.
The absolute key to success in betting is the ability to identify value bet situations where the odds available are greater than the true chance of winning and then to have the discipline to methodically bet only when these situations arise. If this is done the laws of mathematics and probability dictate that in the long term, you will make a profit.
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