York Dante Meeting (Day 3)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

The Racing Horse offers our powerful RACECOURSE TEMPLATE, RACING TRENDS and BETTING ADVICE for the York Dante Meeting, which takes place from Wednesday 15 May to Friday 17 May 2019.

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DAY 3 (Going: Good to firm, good in places)

YORK FAVOURITES (5 years)
Non-handicap                     Handicap
2yo:    30-94  for 32% (-14.19)   6-23  for 26%  (-0.13)
3yo:    17-44  for 39%  (-5.80)  28-85  for 33% (+19.23)
4yo+:   20-48  for 42% (+11.42)  37-179 for 21% (-27.60)
Total:  67-186 for 36%  (-8.58)  71-287 for 25%  (-8.49)

TOP 5 TRAINERS at YORK for 2018
Richard Fahey:   16 wins from 136 for 12% (+24.00)
Mark Johnston:   10 wins from  51 for 20% (+26.35)
John Gosden:      9 wins from  23 for 39% (+11.94)
Time Easterby:    8 wins from  90 for  9%  (-2.50)
Michael Easterby: 5 wins from  28 for 18% (+22.50)

TOP 5 JOCKEYS at YORK for 2018
Franki Dettori: 7 wins from 21 for 33% (+15.69)
Oisin Murphy:   7 wins from 35 for 20%  (+5.33)
Paul Hanagan:   6 wins from 56 for 11%  (+4.50) 
James Doyle:    5 wins from 21 for 24%  (+2.50)
Daniel Tudhope: 5 wins from 55 for  9% (-20.75)

1.50: Langley Solicitors EBF Stallion Marygate Fillies' Stakes (Listed) 5f ITV

13/14: Won over 5f before (93%)
13/14: Raced in the last 5 weeks (93%)
12/14: Won by a horse foaled in February or later (86%)
12/14: Drawn in stall 4 or higher (86%)
12/14: Won between 1-2 times before (86%)
12/14: Won last time out (86%)
11/14: Returned 7/1 or shorter (79%)
10/14: Placed favourites (71%)
..7/14: Winners from stall 9 (50%)
..6/14: Winning favourites (43%)
....2/8: Trained by Richard Fahey (25%)
..2/11: Trained by Michael Bell (18%)

22%: Frankie Dettori at York (SEPARATE)

24%: Archie Watson at York (LADY KERMIT)

2yos non-handicaps: 30-94 for 32% (-14.19)

Timeform

Any number of these are open to improvement but it's still hard to get away from LADY KERMIT who has looked a smart prospect when readily making all on both starts. Fleeting Princess was sent off at odds on for her Yarmouth debut and delivered in the style of a filly who can make her mark at a higher level. Lady Fanditha, Separate and Mighty Spirit are a few others for the shortlist.

The Racing Horse Verdict

1 Lady Fanditha 9/1  2 Lady Kermit 4/1 (WINNER)  3 Fleeting Princess 11/2

Lady Fanditha was strong in betting and made winning debut at Nottingham 17 days ago with some authority. Has the potential to leave that bare form behind and looks a great price.

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2.25: Oaks Farm Stables Fillies' Stakes (Listed)1m ITV

13/13: Priced 15/2 or shorter (100%)
13/13: Drawn in stall 10 or lower (100%)
13/13: Won between 1-2 times in the past (100%)
11/13: Won over at least 7f before (85%)
..9/13: Placed 5 or better last time out (69%)
..9/13: Raced within the last 4 weeks (69%)
..7/13: Horses from stall 1 placed (54%)
..7/13: Raced at Newmarket (5) or Newbury (2) last time out (54%)
..4/13: Winning favourites (31%)
..4/13: Won last time out (31%)
..2/13: Ridden by Ryan Moore (15%)

£70.09: Simon Crisford's profit to a £1 level stake when having one runner at a flat meeting (EL GUMYRAH)

22%: Frankie Dettori at York (TWIST N SHAKE)

3yos non-handicaps: 17-44 for 39% (-5.80)

Timeform 

TWIST 'N' SHAKE was deeply impressive when landing the odds at Nottingham last week and, provided this race doesn't come too soon, she looks more than capable of making her mark at this level. Natalie's Joy suffered a setback last season but she remains a filly of considerable potential. Magnetic Charm and El Gumryah head up the rest.

The Racing Horse Verdict

1 Twist N Shake 7/4 (2nd)  2 Magnetic Charm 7/1 (WINNER)  3 Glance 20/1 (3rd)

John Gosden told us: "It was only a maiden at Nottingham, but she came from a difficult draw and handled it well. Apart from the journey to and from the track it was only like a piece of work. She is a sweet, neat little filly. I don't normally bring horses back so quickly, but she won comfortably and seemed to enjoy herself, plus she belongs to an owner-breeder and this is a black-type race." He pushed a subsequent listed winner close on reappearance and had no difficulty going one better in 13-runner maiden at Nottingham (8.3f) last week. Looks smart.

Exacta paid £17.80 & CSF £13.34. Trifecta paid a whopping £207.20

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3.00: Matchbook Yorkshire Cup (Group 2) 1m6f ITV

15/15: Not win last time out (100%)
15/15: Came from stall 7 or lower (100%)
14/15: Favourites finished in the top 4 (93%)
14/15: Won over at least 1m4f before (93%)
14/15: Returned 9/1 or shorter (93%)
12/15: Aged 5yo or older (80%)
12/15: Placed in the top 4 last time out (80%)
11/15: Won at least 4 times before (73%)
10/15: Aged between 5-7yo (67%)
..8/15: Ran at York before (53%)
..7/15: Horses from stall 7 placed in top 3 (47%)
..7/15: Ran within the last 4 weeks (47%)
..6/15: Came from stall 4 or 7 (40%)
..6/15: Winning favourites (40%)
..4/15: Ridden by Ryan Moore (27%)
..3/15: Ran at Newbury last time out (20%)

Stradivarius won the race 12 months ago

Timeform 

STRADIVARIUS took this 12 months ago and went on to become the first Ascot Gold Cup winner to go through a full season unbeaten for 50 years. It's likely he'll be hard to topple again in 2019 and he can get off to the perfect start, perhaps at the main expense of last year's St Leger third Southern France.

The Racing Horse Verdict

1 STRADIVARIUS 4/5 (WINNER)  2 Ispolino 9/2  3 Southern France 15/2 (2nd)

Stradivarius is our Pacafi and if he is well he wins. Would like to see him start much shorter than 4/6 to confirm his fitness and well being." Gosden told us: "I've been happy with both that work and his progress, so I would be hopeful of a big run. He would actually have no problem dropping back to a mile and a half. I know we're bringing him back over a mile and six furlongs but he's still in the Coronation Cup, which tells you something of how I view the horse. Against that, he saw the trip out well in that extraordinary finish to the Gold Cup, and if things go the right way on Friday we'll be going back to Ascot."

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3.35: Matchbook 'Best Value' Exchange Handicap (Class 2) 1m2f88y ITV


17/17: Aged 7yo or younger (100%)
16/17: Ran over 1m2f before (94%)
11/13: Winners returned 8/1 or shorter (85%)
14/17: Not win their last race (82%)
13/17: Came from stall 5 or higher (76%)
13/17: Won over at least 1m2f before (76%)
12/17: Carried 8st 12lbs or more (71%)
12/17: Previously ran that season (71%)
..7/11: Won by 4yo (64%)
10/17: Won by a 4yo (59%)
..9/17: Finished third or better last time out (53%)
..5/17: Ran at York before (29%)
..5/17: Won by the favourite (29%)
..3/17: Won by Saeed Bin Suroor (2007, 2008, 2009) (18%)
..3/17: Ridden by Frankie Dettori (18%)
..3/17: Won by trainer John Gosden (18%)
..2/17: Won by trainer Sir Michael Stoute (12%)

38%: Andrea Atzeni strike rate (UAE PRINCE)

24%: Charlie Appleby strike rate running over 10f+ (LUCIUS TIBERIUS)

27%: Charlie Appleby strike rate (LUCIUS TIBERIUS)

Timeform 

UAE PRINCE looked ahead of his mark in strong, competitive events last term so, in these slightly calmer waters, he's a confident choice to make a winning return for a yard that have had a solid start to the season. Lucius Tiberius has been operating in a higher grade, so he makes appeal along with easy Newcastle winner Grandee.

The Racing Horse Verdict

1 Lucius Tiberius 17/2 (2nd)  2 UAE Prince 15/8 (WINNER)  3 Society Red 14/1 (2nd)

Lucius Tiberius bagged handicaps at the Curragh and Leopardstown for Aidan O'Brien last summer. Changed hands for 320,000 gns and not disgraced on either outing for new connections. Drops in grade here and looks a great price!

Exacta UP/LT paid £6.40, UP/SR £13.80 & CSF UP/LT £6.09, UP/SR £12.63. Tricast UP/LT/SR £52.82, UP/SR/LT £58.03. Trifecta UP/LT/SR £45.40, UP/SR/LT £71.10

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  Today's Pacafi: click here

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