Shallow men believe in luck!

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

SHALLOW MEN BELIEVE in LUCK. STRONG MEN BELIEVE in CAUSE and EFFECT - Ralph Waldo Emerson

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LUCK has NEITHER MEMORY NOR CONSCIOUSNESS

There have been times in the distant past when we have said to ourselves 'we are due a winner' but of course we are due absolutely NOTHING! There is no mathematical rule/equation suggesting anyone is due anything? Likewise, we used to say 'we are due a change of luck' and of course that is nonsense too! Luck has neither memory nor consciousness, it is a commodity of hindsight and the reason why no reader or member will read the word 'LUCK' on The Racing Horse as part of an excuse! Those who use any of the above phrases are making excuses or seeking solace.

Our spreadsheet and those of other professionals does not contain a column titled luck or nearly, and it does not contain one for bad jockey rides. It contains win, lose, profit and loss. Nothing else exists, absolutely nothing just WIN, LOSE, PROFIT and LOSS and it is within this framework that we work...

The GAMBLER'S FALLACY (AKA The MONTE CARLO FALLACY)

The gambler's fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy or the fallacy of the maturity of chances, is the mistaken belief that - if something happens more frequently than normal during some period, it will happen less frequently in the future. Or, if something happens less frequently than normal during some period, it will happen more frequently in the future (presumably as a means of balancing nature). This fallacy can arise in many practical situations but is most strongly associated with gambling.

BETTING REQUIRES a MATHEMATICAL ATTITUDE and a STRATEGY

Winning at betting is a long-term game, absolutely anything can happen in the short-term. Our strategy is geared to making incremental gains over a period but just as important, to do so without risk. Whilst it is impossible to know everything, with experience and a mathematical aptitude and a strategy, it is possible to develop a confident, effective and winning approach.

There is no quantifiable optimum sports betting strategy. A winning strategy cannot be proved as such, there must always be always be a possibility that one is winning through luck, but if you win over the long-term like we do, winning through luck is impossible!

HONESTY & INTEGRITY

 The Racing Horse prides itself on its honesty and integrity and our long-term members know we are our own worst critic. We readily admit to a mistake and recognise there things we could do better, some a lot better. Or principal problem is we are a one-man band and a bit of a technophobe, this in turn compromises things we might like to do.

PERCEIVED VALUE

Our betting represents our primary source of income, we have an obsession with finding that next winner with perceived value attached. Inevitably this means spending an inordinate amount of time searching, evaluating and checking data. Minutes of delving often lead to hours, then more hours (and then a lifetime). 

GOVERNING FORCE of HORSE RACING BETTING

Proven mathematical laws are the governing force of horse racing betting. Consequently every bet we place is conceived then predicated from statistical analysis protected by a math-based edge with perceived value attached. Our formula is simple because we are yet to be convinced that complication is proportional to profit. So what do we mean by a math-based edge? It means finding something with a solid mathematical core, something historically profitable and something that is unlikely to change or suffer fatigue going forward. Then, if we can filter negative influences from the original proposal and provide a sound rationale for doing so, we can claim that betting edge.

 KEY to SUCCESS

The absolute key to success in betting is the ability to identify value bet situations where the odds available are greater than the true chance of winning and then to have the discipline to methodically bet only when these situations arise. If this is done the laws of mathematics and probability dictate that in the long term, you will make a profit.

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 Disclaimer
Our information and betting advice is for educational purposes only. Please exercise caution when acting upon our advice and remember that gambling carries risk. No liability is taken by the site or product owner following any of the information given or sold to you. Betting always involves a level of risk and you should never bet more than you can afford to lose.

                                                                            

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