Pacafi (23 May 2019)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

STAR OF BENGAL 7.55 Chelmsford at 4/5

Bet In Play At totesport.com Handicap (Class 2) 1m2f

Pedigree: Ninth foal; brother to 1m winner Sacred Act (inc AW; RPR 106), half-brother to four winners inc Star Of Seville (1m-10.5f inc French Oaks; 109) and English Ballet (7f 2yo Group 3; 106); dam 7f and 1m (AW) winner (93), out of Listed-placed 1m/1m2f winner

Trainer Form: 16-65 for 25%  (10)
OR: 101                      (10)                                     
Optimum Ground: Standard     (10)
Optimum Distance: 1m2f       (10)
Jockey: Nicky Mackay          (9)

The Racing Horse Composite:  (49)

STAR OF BENGAL (STATISTICS): 

      Win Plc Run  RPR             Win Plc Run  RPR
Life   1   0   3   106    GF-Hd     1   0   1   106
2019   0   0   0     0    G         1   0   1   106
Dis    0   0   0     0    GS-HVY    0   0   0     0
Crs    0   0   0     0    6-15rns   1   0   3   106
Cl2    0   0   0     0    9.1-9.7   1   0   3   106

Danger: Exec Chef 5/1

Bred to be a stakes-class horse

Star Of Bengal is bred to be a stakes-class horse and he looks progressive with plenty of potential. It will be interesting to see how he is campaigned now but he looks the sort of horse connections could aim at the all-weather finals in the spring. The handicapper has taken no chances rating Star Of Benal so highly but the latter scored by a wide margin at Wolverhampton in November when looking potentially Group-class and he is a confident Pacafi.

Destined for Group races

John Gosden often uses the Tapeta at Wolverhampton as an important stepping stone for his young horses and Star Of Bengal appears destined for much better things after this 10 lengths rout. The colt’s wide draw was no hindrance, with Nicky Mackay securing a perfect pitch on the heels of the leaders before giving Star of Bengal his head racing off the home bend. His mount fairly powered clear in the extended 1m1f maiden and despite the paucity of the opposition, he is one to note in higher grade. CHECK THIS OUT!I

Pace in the race

It's hard to be sure where the pace is coming from but perhaps Star Of Bengal, whose high-class half-sister Star Of Seville often made the running for the yard, will take the bull by the horns. This Class 2 Handicap is obviously tougher for him against hardened rivals than his Class 5 Maiden win last time but there's no saying what he might be capable of currently. The Oasis Dream colt has stall 1 so can take the rail and lead or take a sit off something who might want to make the pace.

Trainer and jockey form

When is trainer John Gosden out of form? His horses are running well including those back off a break and May shows 16 winners from 65 runners for a 25% strike rate. At Chelmsford he registers 52-221 for 24%. Nicky Mackay is not a jockey we normally follow/trust but he knows the colt and Gosden does not suffer fools. The combination figures are good enough showing 124-676 for 18%. We remind ourselves of the fact jockey Nicky Mackay has a fantastic 45% strike rate when riding favourites. Today could be a big day for John Gosden, he sends out 9 runners and there is a likelihood he will register three winners. Stop at a winner?

Of his rivals

Exec Chef was beaten only a length when fourth at Newmarket last time and is preferred to last month’s course and distance winner Nonios. The latter’s stablemate Highbrow returns to action while Marco Botti runs two with Al Hamdany preferred to new inmate Domagnano, a Listed winner in Italy. Both Dark Red and Mount Tahan are capable at this level on their day though neither arrive in good form.

Timeform

STAR OF BENGAL was highly progressive in 3 runs last season and appeals as the type who develop into a smart performer this term. He can make a winning return on his handicap debut at the main expense of Exec Chef, who has produced 2 excellent efforts in defeat so far this campaign.

Value

On this occasion because we have a horse coming back off a break and a moving up significantly in grade so we cannot know what value is! This is clearly an occasion where we believe the Pacafi is totally different class to his rivals with a rail to help find the best racing position. We imagine him going for home some way out and hitting the line hard. If we are right his next race will be a Listed event or better. Not sure of the relevance but we note his full brother Sacred Act (Michael Bell) managed to win twice when racing first time back.

***

RESULT

Star Of Bengal bolted up at Wolverhampton on his final start last year, but had to battle to get the job done, but the runner-up has been in good form of late. That one had fitness on his side and we doubt these two will be meeting each other anytime soon. Winning on his reappearance off a mark of 101 he might be one for the Wolferton Stakes. John Gosden is now 10-25  for 40% in 3yo+ handicaps here over the past five seasons. Once again our ledger records an even money winner but most of our bet was on at 6/4.

***

     The Racing Horse will update the results of our 2018 Pacafi's as soon as possible especially for those who use percentage of the bank staking which is our preferred option. Our results will show advised odds/best price guaranteed, result, stake, win or lose, balance and strike-rate. The results will be shown at 1pt win stakes. From 1st March 2018 we will use 1 to 2pt win staking when appropriate and most favourable including the use of stake-savers.

23 Battaash          2.25  WIN  1.00  +1.25  +0.67  S/R  52%
22 Star Of Bengal    2.00  WIN  1.00  +1.00  -0.58  S/R  50%
21 Tabassor (S)      3.25  WIN  1.25  +2.00  -1.58  S/R  48%
20 Jane Lamb         1.80  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -3.58  S/R  45%
19 Raise You (S)     2.25  WIN  1.25  +1.00  -2.58  S/R  47%
18 Stradivarius      1.80  WIN  1.00  +0.80  -3.58  S/R  44%
17 Soldiers Call (S) 3.75  LOSE 1.20  +0.00  -4.38  S/R  41%
16 Humanitarian      1.72  WIN  1.00  +0.72  -4.38  S/R  44%
15 Run For Mary      1.40  WIN  1.00  +0.40  -5.10  S/R  40%
14 Quiet Place       1.91  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -5.50  S/R  36% 
13 Broome            1.44  WIN  1.00  +0.44  -4.50  S/R  38%
12 Tapissier         2.25  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -4.94  S/R  33%
11 Salouen           1.72  WIN  1.00  +0.72  -3.94  S/R  36%
10 Konigin Ara       4.30  LOSE 1.30  -1.30  -4.66  S/R  30%
 9 Welsh Saint       1.72  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -3.36  S/R  33%
 8 Aphaea            1.83  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -2.36  S/R  37%
 7 Commodore Barry   1.50  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -1.36  S/R  43%
 6 Magical           1.40  WIN  1.00  +0.40  -0.36  S/R  50%
 5 Deputise          3.75  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -0.76  S/R  40%
 4 Klassique (S)     2.87  LOSE 1.25  -0.31  +0.24  S/R  50%
 3 Coolagh Forest    1.83  WIN  1.00  +0.83  +0.55  S/R  67%
 2 The Big Getaway   2.87  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -0.28  S/R  50%
 1 Calyx             1.72  WIN  1.00  +0.72  +0.72  S/R 100%

May SELECTIONS: 23  WIN: 12  LOSE: 11  S/R: 52%   PROFIT: +0.67pts

(1212L122F41212113112111)      FINISHED First or Second (82.61%) 

14 Mokammal          2.37  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +2.59  S/R  57%
13 Ustath            1.44  WIN  1.00  +0.44  +3.59  S/R  62%
12 Oasis Prince      1.80  WIN  1.00  +0.80  +3.15  S/R  58%
11 Nearooz (S)       2.25  WIN  1.25  +1.00  +2.35  S/R  55%
10 Magic Saint       1.91  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +1.35  S/R  50%
 9 Cape Victory      1.67  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +2.35  S/R  56%
 8 Falco Blitz       1.67  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +3.35  S/R  63%
 7 Sir Ron Priestly  1.72  WIN  1.00  +0.72  +4.35  S/R  71%
 6 Alminoor          1.80  WIN  1.00  +0.80  +3.63  S/R  67%
 5 Magical (S)       2.37  WIN  1.20  +1.17  +2.83  S/R  60%
 4 Festival Of Ages  3.00  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +1.66  S/R  50%
 3 Pilaster          1.40  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +2.66  S/R  67%
 2 Private Secretary 1.91  WIN  1.00  +0.91  +3.66  S/R 100%
 1 Pentland Hills    3.75  WIN  1.00  +2.75  +2.75  S/R 100%

April SELECTIONS: 14  WIN: 8  LOSE: 6  S/R: 57%   PROFIT: +2.59pts

(113L1112221113)      FINISHED First or Second (78.57%) 

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