IZVESTIA 2.20 Leicester at 11/8

Enderby Selling Stakes (Class 5) 1m2f

Pedigree: E7,500 F, E18,000 Y; third foal; half-sister to winners Equitassa (1m; RPR 75) and Tagur (6.8f-1m inc Fibresand; 77); dam German 1m/GB 9.4f AW winner, closely related to Listed winners Wooden Doll (6f 2yo) and Welcome Friend (7f) out of 6f 2yo Gr 2 winner

Trainer Form: 2-3 for 67%    (10)
OR & RPR: 80 & 80            (10)                                     
Optimum Ground: Good, Firm   (10)
Optimum Distance: 1m2f       (10)
Jockey: Edward Greatrex       (8)

The Racing Horse Composite:  (48)

IZVESTIA (STATISTICS): 

      Win Plc Run  RPR             Win Plc Run  RPR
Life   3   0   8    84    GF-Hd     1   0   1    75
2019   1   0   2    76    G         1   0   3    81
Dis    1   0   2    76    GS-HVY    1   0   3    84
Crs    0   0   0     0    6-15rns   2   0   7    84
Cl5    2   0   3    75    8.8-9st   2   0   6    84

Danger: IL SICARIO 4/1

Izvestia has won three times from 7f to 1m 2f on good to firm and good to soft ground. Won on her latest outing when the  4/7 favourite at Ripon over 1m 2f on good to soft ground earlier this month, beating Amity Island by 3l.

Better than this level

Archie Watson has hallmarked his rapid ascent through the training ranks with clever race placement and this rates a major opportunity for his filly to back up her recent Ripon victory, also achieved at selling level. She could be better than this level and can land a fourth win from eight starts on turf. Previously she failed to beat a rival home in a French Listed affair on her return to action but she was dropped dramatically in class and duly obliged. Archie Watson keeps her sights low for the time being and it will be a major surprise if that decision isn't vindicated.

Trainer form

Archie Watson has made the most fantastic start to a career and is in brilliant form with his horses.

May:   10 winners from  61 for 16% (+5.10)
April: 16 winners from  66 for 24% (-5.44)
Total: 26 winners from 127 for 20% (-0.34)

Edward Greatrex gets the ride and a slight negative though he has built up a good relationship with the trainer combining with 58-333 for 17%. Hollie Doyle rides at 20% for the trainer (35-171). The trainer is 2-18 for 11% at the track.

Of her rivals

Il Sicario won a course and distance claimer in June 2017 and then ran well when back from a break and third in handicap at Bath over 1m2f, firm last time and that effort reads well in this context and looks the biggest danger. Oofy Prosser has claims for third place on a comfortable success in claiming company on his penultimate start.

Timeform

A tricky-looking seller, but the safest option is clearly IZVESTIA, who won at this level at Ripon just over 2 weeks ago, and has shown much better form in the past. Il Sicario has recent form also, and looks the main danger. Dream Magic is not discounted either now dropped to a seller.

Value

Timeform says it is a tricky looking seller and we do not believe that is. For example in this race, only our trainer Archie Watson has his horses in form and looking at ratings we are miles clear. Yes, we are talking about a seller here but interesting they bought the filly back in for £13,000 last time. She has favoured ground today, is fit and well and just needs to reproduce her well-being. She looks an odds-on shot and close to 4/5, we have 11/8.

***

     The Racing Horse will update the results of our 2018 Pacafi's as soon as possible especially for those who use percentage of the bank staking which is our preferred option. Our results will show advised odds/best price guaranteed, result, stake, win or lose, balance and strike-rate. The results will be shown at 1pt win stakes. From 1st March 2018 we will use 1 to 2pt win staking when appropriate and most favourable including the use of stake-savers.

24 Izvestia R4(S)    3.00  WIN  1.25  +1.65  +2.32  S/R  54%
23 Battaash          2.25  WIN  1.00  +1.25  +0.67  S/R  52%
22 Star Of Bengal    2.00  WIN  1.00  +1.00  -0.58  S/R  50%
21 Tabassor (S)      3.25  WIN  1.25  +2.00  -1.58  S/R  48%
20 Jane Lamb         1.80  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -3.58  S/R  45%
19 Raise You (S)     2.25  WIN  1.25  +1.00  -2.58  S/R  47%
18 Stradivarius      1.80  WIN  1.00  +0.80  -3.58  S/R  44%
17 Soldiers Call (S) 3.75  LOSE 1.20  +0.00  -4.38  S/R  41%
16 Humanitarian      1.72  WIN  1.00  +0.72  -4.38  S/R  44%
15 Run For Mary      1.40  WIN  1.00  +0.40  -5.10  S/R  40%
14 Quiet Place       1.91  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -5.50  S/R  36% 
13 Broome            1.44  WIN  1.00  +0.44  -4.50  S/R  38%
12 Tapissier         2.25  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -4.94  S/R  33%
11 Salouen           1.72  WIN  1.00  +0.72  -3.94  S/R  36%
10 Konigin Ara       4.30  LOSE 1.30  -1.30  -4.66  S/R  30%
 9 Welsh Saint       1.72  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -3.36  S/R  33%
 8 Aphaea            1.83  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -2.36  S/R  37%
 7 Commodore Barry   1.50  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -1.36  S/R  43%
 6 Magical           1.40  WIN  1.00  +0.40  -0.36  S/R  50%
 5 Deputise          3.75  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -0.76  S/R  40%
 4 Klassique (S)     2.87  LOSE 1.25  -0.31  +0.24  S/R  50%
 3 Coolagh Forest    1.83  WIN  1.00  +0.83  +0.55  S/R  67%
 2 The Big Getaway   2.87  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -0.28  S/R  50%
 1 Calyx             1.72  WIN  1.00  +0.72  +0.72  S/R 100%

May SELECTIONS: 24  WIN: 13  LOSE: 11  S/R: 54%   PROFIT: +2.32pts

(1212L122F412121131121111)      FINISHED First or Second (83.33%) 

14 Mokammal          2.37  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +2.59  S/R  57%
13 Ustath            1.44  WIN  1.00  +0.44  +3.59  S/R  62%
12 Oasis Prince      1.80  WIN  1.00  +0.80  +3.15  S/R  58%
11 Nearooz (S)       2.25  WIN  1.25  +1.00  +2.35  S/R  55%
10 Magic Saint       1.91  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +1.35  S/R  50%
 9 Cape Victory      1.67  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +2.35  S/R  56%
 8 Falco Blitz       1.67  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +3.35  S/R  63%
 7 Sir Ron Priestly  1.72  WIN  1.00  +0.72  +4.35  S/R  71%
 6 Alminoor          1.80  WIN  1.00  +0.80  +3.63  S/R  67%
 5 Magical (S)       2.37  WIN  1.20  +1.17  +2.83  S/R  60%
 4 Festival Of Ages  3.00  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +1.66  S/R  50%
 3 Pilaster          1.40  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +2.66  S/R  67%
 2 Private Secretary 1.91  WIN  1.00  +0.91  +3.66  S/R 100%
 1 Pentland Hills    3.75  WIN  1.00  +2.75  +2.75  S/R 100%

April SELECTIONS: 14  WIN: 8  LOSE: 6  S/R: 57%   PROFIT: +2.59pts

(113L1112221113)      FINISHED First or Second (78.57%)