Pacafi (30 May 2019)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | 2 Comments

MIND THE CRACK 3.00 Lingfield at 8/11

bet365 Maiden Auction Stakes (Plus 10 Race) (Class 5) 1m3f133y

Pedigree: E34,000 Y; fourth foal; half-brother to a 2yo winner in Slovakia; dam placed in Germany, half-sister to French 2,000 Guineas/French Derby winner Brametot and Group-placed 1m3f-1m4f winner Mulan out of half-sister to 1m4f Gr 1 winner Monsun

Trainer Form: 5-12 for 43%   (10)
OR & RPR: 82 & 86            (10)                                     
Optimum Ground: Good         (10)
Optimum Distance: 1m4f       (10)
Jockey: Silvestre De Sousa   (10)

The Racing Horse Composite:  (50)

MIND THE CRACK (STATISTICS): 

      Win Plc Run  RPR             Win Plc Run  RPR
Life   0   2   3    86    GF-Hd     0   0   0     0
2019   0   0   0     0    G         0   2   2    86
Dis    0   0   0     0    GS-HVY    0   0   0     0
Crs    0   0   0     0    Upto5rns  0   0   0     0
Cl5    0   0   0     0    9.1-9.7   0   2   3    86

Danger: Dubai Philosopher 3/1

Displayed promise last year, type to progress as a 3yo

Mind The Crack displayed promise in three competitive contests as a juvenile and Mark Johnston's gelding will be hard to beat if he is reasonably fit and the jockey booking suggests he is. The step up in distance will bring about massive improvement and has been gelded since his last run. He is rated 12lbs higher than Ydra and the type to progress as a 3yo.

Jockey and trainer form

Silvestre De Sousa's strike rate on favourites is 36% but when controlling things from the front there is absolutely no one better. He is the best at setting fractions in the UK. The trainer could not be in better form and from his last 12 runners 5 has won for a 43% strike rate. At Lingfield the trainer has recorded over 300 winners though 23-180 for 13% on Turf and 281-1570 for 18% on the AW. The trainer has scored 31 winners for May from 186 for 17%. Interesting the trainer sends out 5 tomorrow but only 1 at Lingfield and Silvestre rides and when these two combine they score 275-1439 for 19%.

Of his rivals

Dubai Philosopher bumped into a pair of useful rivals at Wolverhampton though beaten a long way but he may improve for the step up in trip. Ydra ran well on the all-weather here a couple of times earlier in the year and can make the frame if leaving his most recent effort well behind. Kalaya is hard to recommend.

Timeform 

MIND THE CRACK remains open to improvement and should appreciate this stiffer test of stamina. He is taken to make a winning reappearance. Dubai Philosopher may give him most to think about.

Value

Our Pacafi only needs requisite fitness to win against these rivals. Had we priced up the race we would go: 1/2 Mind The Crack 3/1 Dubai Philosopher 7/1 Ydra 33/1 Kayala. Since we compiled this rationale Mark Johnston had a treble at Hamilton and that encourages the fitness angle!

***

     The Racing Horse will update the results of our 2018 Pacafi's as soon as possible especially for those who use percentage of the bank staking which is our preferred option. Our results will show advised odds/best price guaranteed, result, stake, win or lose, balance and strike-rate. The results will be shown at 1pt win stakes. From 1st March 2018 we will use 1 to 2pt win staking when appropriate and most favourable including the use of stake-savers.

25 Mind The Crack    1.72  WIN  1.00  +0.72  +3.04  S/R  56% 
24 Izvestia R4(S)    3.00  WIN  1.25  +1.65  +2.32  S/R  54%
23 Battaash          2.25  WIN  1.00  +1.25  +0.67  S/R  52%
22 Star Of Bengal    2.00  WIN  1.00  +1.00  -0.58  S/R  50%
21 Tabassor (S)      3.25  WIN  1.25  +2.00  -1.58  S/R  48%
20 Jane Lamb         1.80  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -3.58  S/R  45%
19 Raise You (S)     2.25  WIN  1.25  +1.00  -2.58  S/R  47%
18 Stradivarius      1.80  WIN  1.00  +0.80  -3.58  S/R  44%
17 Soldiers Call (S) 3.75  LOSE 1.20  +0.00  -4.38  S/R  41%
16 Humanitarian      1.72  WIN  1.00  +0.72  -4.38  S/R  44%
15 Run For Mary      1.40  WIN  1.00  +0.40  -5.10  S/R  40%
14 Quiet Place       1.91  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -5.50  S/R  36% 
13 Broome            1.44  WIN  1.00  +0.44  -4.50  S/R  38%
12 Tapissier         2.25  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -4.94  S/R  33%
11 Salouen           1.72  WIN  1.00  +0.72  -3.94  S/R  36%
10 Konigin Ara       4.30  LOSE 1.30  -1.30  -4.66  S/R  30%
 9 Welsh Saint       1.72  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -3.36  S/R  33%
 8 Aphaea            1.83  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -2.36  S/R  37%
 7 Commodore Barry   1.50  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -1.36  S/R  43%
 6 Magical           1.40  WIN  1.00  +0.40  -0.36  S/R  50%
 5 Deputise          3.75  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -0.76  S/R  40%
 4 Klassique (S)     2.87  LOSE 1.25  -0.31  +0.24  S/R  50%
 3 Coolagh Forest    1.83  WIN  1.00  +0.83  +0.55  S/R  67%
 2 The Big Getaway   2.87  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -0.28  S/R  50%
 1 Calyx             1.72  WIN  1.00  +0.72  +0.72  S/R 100%

May SELECTIONS: 25  WIN: 14  LOSE: 11  S/R: 56%   PROFIT: +3.04pts

(1212L122F4121211311211111)      FINISHED First or Second (84.00%) 

14 Mokammal          2.37  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +2.59  S/R  57%
13 Ustath            1.44  WIN  1.00  +0.44  +3.59  S/R  62%
12 Oasis Prince      1.80  WIN  1.00  +0.80  +3.15  S/R  58%
11 Nearooz (S)       2.25  WIN  1.25  +1.00  +2.35  S/R  55%
10 Magic Saint       1.91  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +1.35  S/R  50%
 9 Cape Victory      1.67  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +2.35  S/R  56%
 8 Falco Blitz       1.67  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +3.35  S/R  63%
 7 Sir Ron Priestly  1.72  WIN  1.00  +0.72  +4.35  S/R  71%
 6 Alminoor          1.80  WIN  1.00  +0.80  +3.63  S/R  67%
 5 Magical (S)       2.37  WIN  1.20  +1.17  +2.83  S/R  60%
 4 Festival Of Ages  3.00  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +1.66  S/R  50%
 3 Pilaster          1.40  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +2.66  S/R  67%
 2 Private Secretary 1.91  WIN  1.00  +0.91  +3.66  S/R 100%
 1 Pentland Hills    3.75  WIN  1.00  +2.75  +2.75  S/R 100%

April SELECTIONS: 14  WIN: 8  LOSE: 6  S/R: 57%   PROFIT: +2.59pts

(113L1112221113)      FINISHED First or Second (78.57%) 

 Disclaimer
Our information and betting advice is for educational purposes only. Please exercise caution when acting upon our advice and remember that gambling carries risk. No liability is taken by the site or product owner following any of the information given or sold to you. Betting always involves a level of risk and you should never bet more than you can afford to lose.

 

2 Responses to Pacafi (30 May 2019)

  1. Ivan ball says:

    Just joined &thanks for my first winner looking forward to more

    • Paul Moon says:

      Ivan, thanks for giving us a try.

      Had two newcomers on the same day and neither of you asked for a trial first. How did you find us?

      Closed the membership again now, only want a small group. Hope to serve you well, promise to work hard and be honest…

      Thanks again

      Paul

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