Racecourse Template for Haydock (Saturday 8 June 2019)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

The state of the ground at Haydock has rendered our thoughts and racecourse template almost useless for the first two days and it looks more of the same today with very heavy ground and even more rain expected. Tom Dascombe has sent four runners to the course over the first two days seeking his 100th winner - that has not happened. He sends 4 more to Haydock today.

Tom Dascomber is now 99-553 for 18% (+244.29) and all his runners trade at big prices, they are Reflektor 4.10 at 18/1 (William Hill), Wild Edric 4.40 at 10/1, Finoah 5.10 at 20/1 (WINNER) and in the same race Metatron at 20/1. Reflektor will be ridden by Frankie Dettori and this horse likes soft ground, could it be Dettori to bring up the 100 for Dascombe?

Richard Kingscote goes to Newmarket to ride Proschema 2.45 and that one trades at 9/1. Is that a tip? He is dual winner who twice performed with great credit in strong 1¾m handicaps at York in 2018, including at the Ebor meeting. Is better for his return when eighth at York last month and return to further a plus (3rd)

Favourites in non-handicaps has a strike rate of 40% whilst the 3yos register 42%. That said only those aged 4yo and older make a level stake profit. Handicap favourites show a poor return.

Top trainer this year is Mark Johnston and consequently Franny Norton is top jockey though he goes to Beverley for a full book of rides so he might not be top jockey after today. 

HAYDOCK FAVOURITES (5 years)
Non-handicap                    Handicap
2yo:    45-111 for 41% (-12.51)   4-20   for 20%  (-6.75)
3yo:    28-67  for 42% (-10.68)  61-202  for 31% (-36.16)
4yo+:   19-52  for 37%  (+0.37)  65-215  for 30%  (-8.66)
Total:  92-230 for 40% (-22.81)  130-437 for 30% (-53.57)

TOP 7 TRAINERS at HAYDOCK for current year
Mark Johnston:  4 wins from 19 for 21%  (+0.00)
Kevin Ryan:     3 wins from 10 for 30%  (+7.50)
Declan Carroll: 2 wins from  4 for 50%  (+5.75)
John Quinn:     2 wins from  4 for 50% (+12.00)
K Burke:        2 wins from  6 for 33%  (+3.37)
Mick Channon:   2 wins from  7 for 29%  (+4.33)
John Gosden:    2 wins from  7 for 29% (+16.50)

TOP 5 JOCKEYS at HAYDOCK for current year
Franny Norton: 4 wins from 10 for 40% (+21.50)
Pat Cosgrave:  3 wins from  4 for 75% (+17.50) 
Jason Hart:    3 wins from  8 for 38% (+15.00)
Kevin Stott:   3 wins from 10 for 30%  (+2.25)
P J McDonald:  3 wins from 17 for 18%  (+0.50)

SATURDAY TRENDS at HAYDOCK

2.25: Betway Pinnacle Stakes (Group 3) 1m3f ITV4

16/16: Won over at least 1m2f before (100%)
14/16: Returned 9/1 or shorter (88%)
13/16: Finished in the top 3 last time out (81%)
13/16: Rated 92 or higher (81%)
12/16: Placed favourites (75%)
12/16: Won over 1m4f before (75%)
12/16: Aged 4yo (75%)
11/16: Came from the top 3 in the betting (69%)
..9/16: Drawn in stall 5 or lower (56%)
..6/16: Ran at Haydock before (38%)
..5/16: Winning favourites (31%)
..4/16: Won last time out (25%)
..2/16: Trained by Roger Varian (13%)
..2/16: Trained by John Gosden (13%)
..2/16: Ridden by Frankie Dettori (13%)

The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 11/2

Timeform

TRUE SELF had plenty in hand when making it 3 listed victories in a row on her Gowran reappearance last month and can extend her winning run now stepped up to Group 3 level. Klassique could be sharper with her Goodwood reappearance behind her and can give her most to do ahead of the penalised Highgarden.

The Racing Horse Verdict

1 True Self 4/5 (2nd)  2 Pilaster 15/2 (3rd)  3 Highgarden 15/2 (NR)

True Self is unbeaten (3-3) with the word soft in the going title so will not mind the conditions. After her win last month jockey Colin Keane told us: "She's done it well. She progressed well last year and got better with every run. She had a nice, good blow and I didn't want to be hard on her for no reason. I think she will come on a lot for that fitness-wise. She will be one to look forward to throughout the summer." 

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3.00: Betway Achilles Stakes (Listed) 5f ITV4

10/10: Returned 14/1 or shorter (100%)
..9/10: Aged 5yo or older (90%)
..9/10: Raced in the last 10 weeks (90%)
..9/10: Won between 6-8 times before (90%)
..9/10: Did not win last time out (90%)
..9/10: Won over 5f before (90%)
..8/10: Drawn between stalls 2-7 (inc) (80%)
..7/10: Ran at the course before (70%)
..7/10: Winning distance 1 length or less (70%)
..7/10: Finished in the top 5 last time out (70%)
..5/10: Unplaced favourites (50%)
..5/10: Winning favourites (50%)
..2/10: Trained by William Haggas (20%)

The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 13/2

Timeform

TARBOOSH hasn't been at his best both starts this season but progressed to a smart level when winning 4 times last term and is worth another chance back down in class. Stake Acclaim and Danzeno both made impressive winning comebacks and are the main threats along with Intense Romance, who won twice at this level in the autumn.

The Racing Horse Verdict

1 Tarboosh 9/2 (3rd)  2 Intense Romance 4/1  3 Stake Acclaim 10/3

Another excellent advert for his trainer's skills with sprinters, improving throughout last season. Not at best both starts in 2019 but might have needed them and the one to beat if back to best. Trainer Paul Midgley said of his runner: " The ground will be fine and he ran well on heavy on this track two years ago and I have always thought he was good enough to win at Listed level."

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3.35: Betway John Of Gaunt Stakes (Group 3) 7f ITV4

15/16: Rated 107 or higher (94%)
15/16: Raced within the last 4 weeks (94%)
14/16: Drawn in stall 6 or lower (88%)
13/16: Came from the top three in the betting (81%)
13/16: Returned 9/1 or shorter (81%)
13/16: Won over 7f before (81%)
11/16: Aged 4 or 5yo (69%)
11/16: Placed in the top 3 last time out (69%)
11/16: Drawn in stall 3 or lower (69%)
10/16: Won at least 4 times before (63%)
..9/16: Favourites placed (56%)
..5/16: Ran at the track before (31%)
..4/16: Winning favourites (1 joint) (25%)
..3/16: Ridden by Ryan Moore (19%)
..2/16: Trained by Sir Michael Stoute (13%)
..2/16: Aged 9yo (13%)

The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 7/1

Timeform

An open-looking renewal, with SIR DANCEALOT perhaps the answer given he shaped well until his stamina gave way over 1m in the Lockinge. This race looks ideal. Safe Voyage is on a roll at present but is far from certain to uphold C&D listed form with Mankib on 3lb worse terms given that rival was making his reappearance.

The Racing Horse Verdict

1 Safe Voyage 11/4 (WINNER)  2 Mankib 9/2  3 Suedois 14/1 (2nd)

Safe Voyage won on reappearance in a course and distance handicap (soft) and followed up in a course and distances Listed event (good to soft), making it 3-3 here. John Quinn, trainer: "Safe Voyage is in very good form. He loves Haydock and loves cut in the ground and, although this is a better race again from last time, we expect him to put up a good show."

Mankib (backed into 3/1) reared up and banged head leaving stalls, the situation was immediately accepted, and the horse was allowed to canter home in its own time.

Exacta £8.90 & CSF £11.35

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Update: Tom Dascombe had a 20/1 winner at Haydock to bring up his 100th winner (FINOAH) and we hope our thread helped at least one member. We were on but to very small stakes and have a feeling of missing out! By the way it paid £24.80 on the Tote for a win and £5.60 for a place.

Despite the conditions the Racecourse Template proved to be a useful tool. Top trainer at the course this year Mark Johnston had another winner at 5/2 and third best John Quinn scored with an 11/4 where we also landed the Exacta and CSF.

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COMING UP

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2019 Northumberland Plate Festival

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  Today's Pacafi: click here

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