Pacafi (10 June 2019)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

 FAR ABOVE 6.45 Windsor at 8/11

Carey Group 50th Anniversary Novice Stakes (Class 5) 6f12y

Pedigree: 18,000gns Y, 105,000gns 2yo; first foal; dam 7f winner (RPR 78), out of unraced half-sister to 1m2f Gr 1 winner Nahrain (dam of Benbatl), is granddaughter of Oaks second Bahr

Trainer Form: 4-22 for 18%   (10)
RPR: 97                      (10)                                     
Optimum Ground: Good         (10)
Optimum Distance: 6f         (10)
Jockey: PJ McDonald           (9)

The Racing Horse Composite:  (49)

Danger: Real Smooth 6/1

Drops from Listed to Class 5 Novice

Far Above is penalised for an earlier success at Newmarket and wasn’t disgraced in a Listed company over 7f at the same track last time. He created a favourable impression on debut. Next up over course and distance he did not settle very well and this huge drop in class will be appreciated, that said he was only beaten a few lengths and a reproduction of any of his first two runs should be enough. At this stage of his career the drop back to 6f will probably suit but will enable the colt to hit the line hard.

Interesting that Far Above has a Group 1 entry on 21 June 2019 in the Commonwealth Cup and needs to win this with plenty in hand to take up the entry. It shows the regard in which the colt is held and we remind ourselves he runs in a Novice Class 5 on Monday which seems a long way away!

Trainer form

We are duty bound to remind members of a negative and James Tate has poor statistics at Windsor showing just 3 winners from 34 runners for a 9% strike rate and not figures we usually get into bed with! The trainer's general form has been excellent and we have set those aside. For example this year he has scored 33-124 for 27% and a level-stake profit of +6.18 and his 3yos racing on Turf show 8-30 for 27%, his 4yos on Turf recored 4-7 for 57%. He only has one runner tomorrow.

 Of his rivals

Crantock Bay receives 7lbs from the Pacafi so has leading claims on today’s terms but hasn’t raced since September. Johnny Reb has switched yards since finishing runner-up at Chelmsford and has a similar rating to Real Smooth. The latter finished second to Amplify, rated 81, at Salisbury recently and that form gives the Hannon colt a chance in this and rates the main danger. Great Midge was placed at Chepstow on his reappearance but gives weight to the younger horses while the speedily-bred Equipped may prove best of the newcomers.

Timeform 

There is more to come from FAR ABOVE judged by the way he cruised into contention in a good listed race at Newmarket last month. He wasn't beaten far and this is a lot easier. Johnny Reb and Real Smooth are among the chief dangers.

Value

If we look at the odds of our bet on Oddschecker it will show 11/8 was offered by Bet365 but we were waiting for this race. We tried to get on using a runner but was refused, it could be that somebody got a fiver on but the price was a sham, it never existed! Our notes from last night said 'take 10/11 or 4/5' but given the class drop from Newmarket was a bit optimistic! Obviously we need a good paddock and do not want a lot of rain but feel if we do we are on the right side of value. Even with just two runs ours is top rated and having nothing to fear from the 4yos so just need good ground, a good paddock and a percentage ride from P J McDonald who is riding better than ever.

There are 5 other horses trading under 10/1 so one or two of those could be heavily backed each way causing our price to ease slightly. Come paddock time we expect him to shorten again...

***

     The Racing Horse will update the results of our 2018 Pacafi's as soon as possible especially for those who use percentage of the bank staking which is our preferred option. Our results will show advised odds/best price guaranteed, result, stake, win or lose, balance and strike-rate. The results will be shown at 1pt win stakes. From 1st March 2018 we will use 1 to 2pt win staking when appropriate and most favourable including the use of stake-savers.

 8 Far Above         1.72  WIN  1.00  +0.72  -1.35  S/R 50%
 7 Neon Sea R4       2.20  WIN  1.00  +1.08  -2.07  S/R 43%
 6 Nahham (S)        2.75  LOSE 1.25  -1.25  -3.15  S/R 33%
 5 Theban'kingrebel  1.72  WIN  1.00  +0.72  -1.93  S/R 40% 
 4 Quiet Place       2.10  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -2.65  S/R 25%
 3 Ricochet (S)      2.37  LOSE 1.25  -1.25  -1.65  S/R 33%
 2 Separate          1.80  WIN  1.00  +0.80  -0.40  S/R 50% 
 1 Sir Dragonet (S)  4.00  LOSE 1.20  -1.20  -1.20  S/R  0%

June SELECTIONS: 8  WIN: 4  LOSE: 4  S/R: 50%   LOSS: -1.35pts

(51421411)      FINISHED First or Second (62.50%) 

25 Mind The Crack    1.72  WIN  1.00  +0.72  +3.04  S/R  56% 
24 Izvestia R4(S)    3.00  WIN  1.25  +1.65  +2.32  S/R  54%
23 Battaash          2.25  WIN  1.00  +1.25  +0.67  S/R  52%
22 Star Of Bengal    2.00  WIN  1.00  +1.00  -0.58  S/R  50%
21 Tabassor (S)      3.25  WIN  1.25  +2.00  -1.58  S/R  48%
20 Jane Lamb         1.80  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -3.58  S/R  45%
19 Raise You (S)     2.25  WIN  1.25  +1.00  -2.58  S/R  47%
18 Stradivarius      1.80  WIN  1.00  +0.80  -3.58  S/R  44%
17 Soldiers Call (S) 3.75  LOSE 1.20  +0.00  -4.38  S/R  41%
16 Humanitarian      1.72  WIN  1.00  +0.72  -4.38  S/R  44%
15 Run For Mary      1.40  WIN  1.00  +0.40  -5.10  S/R  40%
14 Quiet Place       1.91  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -5.50  S/R  36% 
13 Broome            1.44  WIN  1.00  +0.44  -4.50  S/R  38%
12 Tapissier         2.25  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -4.94  S/R  33%
11 Salouen           1.72  WIN  1.00  +0.72  -3.94  S/R  36%
10 Konigin Ara       4.30  LOSE 1.30  -1.30  -4.66  S/R  30%
 9 Welsh Saint       1.72  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -3.36  S/R  33%
 8 Aphaea            1.83  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -2.36  S/R  37%
 7 Commodore Barry   1.50  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -1.36  S/R  43%
 6 Magical           1.40  WIN  1.00  +0.40  -0.36  S/R  50%
 5 Deputise          3.75  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -0.76  S/R  40%
 4 Klassique (S)     2.87  LOSE 1.25  -0.31  +0.24  S/R  50%
 3 Coolagh Forest    1.83  WIN  1.00  +0.83  +0.55  S/R  67%
 2 The Big Getaway   2.87  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -0.28  S/R  50%
 1 Calyx             1.72  WIN  1.00  +0.72  +0.72  S/R 100%

May SELECTIONS: 25  WIN: 14  LOSE: 11  S/R: 56%   PROFIT: +3.04pts

(1212L122F4121211311211111)      FINISHED First or Second (84.00%) 

14 Mokammal          2.37  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +2.59  S/R  57%
13 Ustath            1.44  WIN  1.00  +0.44  +3.59  S/R  62%
12 Oasis Prince      1.80  WIN  1.00  +0.80  +3.15  S/R  58%
11 Nearooz (S)       2.25  WIN  1.25  +1.00  +2.35  S/R  55%
10 Magic Saint       1.91  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +1.35  S/R  50%
 9 Cape Victory      1.67  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +2.35  S/R  56%
 8 Falco Blitz       1.67  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +3.35  S/R  63%
 7 Sir Ron Priestly  1.72  WIN  1.00  +0.72  +4.35  S/R  71%
 6 Alminoor          1.80  WIN  1.00  +0.80  +3.63  S/R  67%
 5 Magical (S)       2.37  WIN  1.20  +1.17  +2.83  S/R  60%
 4 Festival Of Ages  3.00  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +1.66  S/R  50%
 3 Pilaster          1.40  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +2.66  S/R  67%
 2 Private Secretary 1.91  WIN  1.00  +0.91  +3.66  S/R 100%
 1 Pentland Hills    3.75  WIN  1.00  +2.75  +2.75  S/R 100%

April SELECTIONS: 14  WIN: 8  LOSE: 6  S/R: 57%   PROFIT: +2.59pts

(113L1112221113)      FINISHED First or Second (78.57%) 

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