Pacafi (11 June 2019)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

 TAPISSERIE 4.15 Salisbury at 5/4

Willton Homes Novice Stakes (Class 5) 6f213y

Pedigree: 130,000gns Y; second foal; half-sister to 5f AW winner Spin Top (inc 2yo/RPR 65); dam 5f 2yo winner (inc AW/Listed; 102), half-sister to Group-placed 1m/1m1f winner Romantic Settings out of 7f-1m2f winning sister to Norwegian 1m1f Group 3 winner Entangle

Trainer Form: 5-12 for 43%   (10)
RPR: 89                       (9)                                     
Optimum Ground: Good to soft (10)
Optimum Distance: 7f         (10)
Jockey: Ryan Moore           (10)

The Racing Horse Composite:  (49)

Danger: REYNOLDS 11/4

Open to greater improvement

Tapisserie came up against a useful sort in Alhakmah on second start and had the rest well-beaten off when failing by under a length. She'll have more to come after two starts and will be better suited going up in distance. The 3yo has shown plenty of ability in her short career so far, and looks open to greater improvement than the more exposed Posted. The booking of Ryan Moore suggests connections mean business.

Trainer form

Trainer William Haggas astounds us in that he always has his horses well. At the moment he is in fantastic form with his horses and has won with 5 of his last 12 runners at prices 7/1, 3/1, 7/2, 11/4 and 7/1. June shows 11 winners from 33 runners for 33% and a level stake profit of +16.24. At Salisbury he records 30-137 for 22% (+2.93). When Ryan Moore combines with the trainer they register impressive figures with 110-366 for 27% (-11.04). The Pacafi is the trainer's only runner on Tuesday.

Of her rivals

Posted is exposed but has fairly solid form in the book and is an obvious each-way alternative, whilst stable companion Quick will appreciate this drop in grade. However, Reynolds rates the main danger after a promising Newbury debut when a close third to Biometric when seemingly unfancied.

Timeform 

TAPISSERIE failed to land the odds at Lingfield last month, but she again shaped with considerable promise and the outcome may have been different had she not endured a troubled passage. She is taken to make it third time lucky here. Posted is a big player judged on 2yo exploits, but she doesn't look especially progressive and a bigger threat may be posed by the promising Reynolds.

Value

We do not like backing the fillies to beat the boys at this time of the year but feel our filly has an edge as we priced the filly up closer to 10/11. Hard to know how good the colt Reynolds is but likely to do better, has to give our bet a 5lbs sex allowance (trainer 0-21). Both have an RPR of 89. The two mentioned look better than Posted so certain the winner will come from these two.

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COMING UP

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RACECOURSE TEMPLE for YORK (Saturday 15 June 2019)

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2019 NORTHUMBERLAND PLATE

     The Racing Horse will update the results of our 2018 Pacafi's as soon as possible especially for those who use percentage of the bank staking which is our preferred option. Our results will show advised odds/best price guaranteed, result, stake, win or lose, balance and strike-rate. The results will be shown at 1pt win stakes. From 1st March 2018 we will use 1 to 2pt win staking when appropriate and most favourable including the use of stake-savers.

 9 Tapiserrie 2xR4   2.25  WIN  1.00  +0.69  -0.66  S/R 56%
 8 Far Above         1.72  WIN  1.00  +0.72  -1.35  S/R 50%
 7 Neon Sea R4       2.20  WIN  1.00  +1.08  -2.07  S/R 43%
 6 Nahham (S)        2.75  LOSE 1.25  -1.25  -3.15  S/R 33%
 5 Theban'kingrebel  1.72  WIN  1.00  +0.72  -1.93  S/R 40% 
 4 Quiet Place       2.10  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -2.65  S/R 25%
 3 Ricochet (S)      2.37  LOSE 1.25  -1.25  -1.65  S/R 33%
 2 Separate          1.80  WIN  1.00  +0.80  -0.40  S/R 50% 
 1 Sir Dragonet (S)  4.00  LOSE 1.20  -1.20  -1.20  S/R  0%

June SELECTIONS: 9  WIN: 5  LOSE: 4  S/R: 55%   LOSS: -0.66pts

(514214111)      FINISHED First or Second (66.67%) 

25 Mind The Crack    1.72  WIN  1.00  +0.72  +3.04  S/R  56% 
24 Izvestia R4(S)    3.00  WIN  1.25  +1.65  +2.32  S/R  54%
23 Battaash          2.25  WIN  1.00  +1.25  +0.67  S/R  52%
22 Star Of Bengal    2.00  WIN  1.00  +1.00  -0.58  S/R  50%
21 Tabassor (S)      3.25  WIN  1.25  +2.00  -1.58  S/R  48%
20 Jane Lamb         1.80  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -3.58  S/R  45%
19 Raise You (S)     2.25  WIN  1.25  +1.00  -2.58  S/R  47%
18 Stradivarius      1.80  WIN  1.00  +0.80  -3.58  S/R  44%
17 Soldiers Call (S) 3.75  LOSE 1.20  +0.00  -4.38  S/R  41%
16 Humanitarian      1.72  WIN  1.00  +0.72  -4.38  S/R  44%
15 Run For Mary      1.40  WIN  1.00  +0.40  -5.10  S/R  40%
14 Quiet Place       1.91  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -5.50  S/R  36% 
13 Broome            1.44  WIN  1.00  +0.44  -4.50  S/R  38%
12 Tapissier         2.25  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -4.94  S/R  33%
11 Salouen           1.72  WIN  1.00  +0.72  -3.94  S/R  36%
10 Konigin Ara       4.30  LOSE 1.30  -1.30  -4.66  S/R  30%
 9 Welsh Saint       1.72  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -3.36  S/R  33%
 8 Aphaea            1.83  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -2.36  S/R  37%
 7 Commodore Barry   1.50  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -1.36  S/R  43%
 6 Magical           1.40  WIN  1.00  +0.40  -0.36  S/R  50%
 5 Deputise          3.75  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -0.76  S/R  40%
 4 Klassique (S)     2.87  LOSE 1.25  -0.31  +0.24  S/R  50%
 3 Coolagh Forest    1.83  WIN  1.00  +0.83  +0.55  S/R  67%
 2 The Big Getaway   2.87  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -0.28  S/R  50%
 1 Calyx             1.72  WIN  1.00  +0.72  +0.72  S/R 100%

May SELECTIONS: 25  WIN: 14  LOSE: 11  S/R: 56%   PROFIT: +3.04pts

(1212L122F4121211311211111)      FINISHED First or Second (84.00%) 

14 Mokammal          2.37  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +2.59  S/R  57%
13 Ustath            1.44  WIN  1.00  +0.44  +3.59  S/R  62%
12 Oasis Prince      1.80  WIN  1.00  +0.80  +3.15  S/R  58%
11 Nearooz (S)       2.25  WIN  1.25  +1.00  +2.35  S/R  55%
10 Magic Saint       1.91  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +1.35  S/R  50%
 9 Cape Victory      1.67  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +2.35  S/R  56%
 8 Falco Blitz       1.67  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +3.35  S/R  63%
 7 Sir Ron Priestly  1.72  WIN  1.00  +0.72  +4.35  S/R  71%
 6 Alminoor          1.80  WIN  1.00  +0.80  +3.63  S/R  67%
 5 Magical (S)       2.37  WIN  1.20  +1.17  +2.83  S/R  60%
 4 Festival Of Ages  3.00  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +1.66  S/R  50%
 3 Pilaster          1.40  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +2.66  S/R  67%
 2 Private Secretary 1.91  WIN  1.00  +0.91  +3.66  S/R 100%
 1 Pentland Hills    3.75  WIN  1.00  +2.75  +2.75  S/R 100%

April SELECTIONS: 14  WIN: 8  LOSE: 6  S/R: 57%   PROFIT: +2.59pts

(113L1112221113)      FINISHED First or Second (78.57%) 

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