The Racing Horse will be providing all the information our members need for Royal Ascot which will be updated at the end of each day. Our RACECOURSE TEMPLATE represents a racing landscape/road map of Ascot.
We had the most fabulous/profitable 2018 ROYAL ASCOT and the good news is we are even better prepared this year with all the relevant and pertinent numbers. There are 18 Group races over the 5 days, it is going to be exciting with lots of noise/nonsense, our job is to keep calm, ignore the pundits, look at and digest our numbers, then nominate/offer betting advice. LATEST NEWS HERE
ASCOT FAVOURITES (5 years) Non-handicap Handicap 2yo: 26-82 for 32% (-12.94) 3-4 for 75% (+2.95) 3yo: 32-79 for 41% (+5.26) 25-103 for 24% (-22.93) 4yo+: 25-80 for 31% (-20.60) 39-131 for 28% (+28.08) Total: 83-241 for 34% (-28.27) 67-238 for 28% (+8.11) TOP 5 TRAINERS at ASCOT for 2018 John Gosden: 14 wins from 59 for 24% (-4.25) Clive Cox: 6 wins from 31 for 19% (+8.90) Charlie Appleby: 6 wins from 32 for 19% (-10.37) Michael Stoute: 6 wins from 33 for 18% (+4.82) Andrew Balding: 6 wins from 37 for 16% (-3.00) TOP 5 JOCKEYS at ASCOT for 2018 James Doyle: 10 wins from 48 for 21% (+3.40) William Buick: 9 wins from 59 for 15% (-22.50) Frankie Dettori: 8 wins from 37 for 22% (-9.29) Ryan Moore: 8 wins from 61 for 13% (-28.13) Adam Kirby: 7 wins from 51 for 14% (-3.87)
SO WHAT DO WE KNOW FOR SURE?
The Racecourse Template shows 3yo favourites in non-handicaps win 41% of the races with 32 winners from 79 races so not the biggest sample. Looking at the names contained on our leader board the top trainers and jockeys do best here, and the obvious area to concentrate on/start with. 2018 figures for trainers and jockeys have been used because of sample size. We accept the difference between Ascot statistics in a general sense and the statistics for Royal Ascot, but the top trainers and jockeys will remain dominant and it will be foolish to ignore them.
TRAINERS & JOCKEYS
This reality must be factored into ones thought processes for each and every race! It is our belief that 4 of the top 5 trainers (GOSDEN, APPLEBY, STOUTE, Balding or Cox) and 3 of the top 4 jockeys (DETTORI, DOYLE, MOORE) will register at least one winner each. Aidan O'Brien will obviously have winners and surely William Haggas (see below) will go close if not winning a race.
STRANGE BUT TRUE
Looking at a some other trainer NOT on our leader board we note the following from 2013 to 2018 (6 years) at Royal Ascot:
Aidan O'Brien: 28-183 for 15% (+75.75) Win & Place 74-183 for 40%
Michael Stoute: 14-89 for 16% (+24.29) Win & Place 33-89 for 37%
William Haggas: 0-71 for 0% Win & Place 14-71 for 20%
Roger Varian: 1-65 for 2% Win & Place 10-65 for 15%
Mick Channon: 1-51 for 2% Win & Place 5-51 for 10%
Who would have thought that Haggas, Varian and Channon combined would have a Royal Ascot score of 2-187 for 1% strike rate? Those numbers do not reflect trainer ability or the quality of the horses in their stable but they reflect something.
GROUP 1 RACES
In the last 6 Royal Ascot fixtures there have been 46 Group 1 races and only 1 has won at 22/1 or bigger. Backing something at long odds in the top grade is a mistake.
46/46: Winners of Group 1 races rated 107 or higher (100%)
43/46: Won 1 of their last 3 races (93.48%)
43/46: Won a Group race last time out (93.48%)
UPDATE & GROUND CONDITIONS
This post be will updated between now and the final day of Royal Ascot with the state of the ground a concern, it could change from day to day.
Our information and betting advice is for educational purposes only. Please exercise caution when acting upon our advice and remember that gambling carries risk. No liability is taken by the site or product owner following any of the information given or sold to you. Betting always involves a level of risk and you should never bet more than you can afford to lose.