Betfair Exchange Northumberland Plate Handicap (Class 2) 2m56y

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

The Northumberland Plate is a heritage handicap worth £150,000 run at Newcastle over 2 miles, and is one of the richest staying handicap races in the world and ran on Saturday 29 June 2019. Formerly known as the 'Pitmen's Derby' the contest was first run in 1833 and being over a staying distance attracts plenty of horses trained by National Hunt stables. This is the most famous race meeting of the year at Newcastle and the culmination of a three-day festival.

FAVOURITES
NON-HANDICAP RACES (5 YEARS)      HANDICAP RACES (5 YEARS)

2yo:    49-111 for 44% (-10.03)    26-61  for 43% (+13.01)
3yo:    79-173 for 46%  (-9.39)    88-252 for 35%  (+1.92)
4yo+:   13-40  for 33% (-10.28)   167-531 for 29% (-45.91)
Total: 141-324 for 44% (-29.70)   281-859 for 33% (-30.97)
TOP TRAINERS at Newcastle for current year
Ben Haslam:     12 wins from 39 for 31% (+53.58)
Michael Appleby: 8 wins from 34 for 24%  (+3.29)
Richard Fahey:   8 wins from 57 for 14%  (+3.50)
Antony Brittain: 7 wins from 50 for 14%  (-2.20)
John Gosden:     6 wins from 14 for 43%  (+8.34)
TOP JOCKEYS at Newcastle for current year
Andrew Mullen:  15 wins from 77 for 19% (+33.08)
Joe Fanning:    11 wins from 67 for 16% (+13.82)
Daniel Tudhope: 10 wins from 38 for 26%  (+6.23)
P J McDonald:    9 wins from 71 for 13% (-31.46)
Cam Hardie:      9 wins from 72 for 13%  (+5.05)

Before we look at the bit race itself we are drawn to the big strike rates of 2 & 3yos in non-handicaps. Yes they show a loss to level stakes but 44% and 46% strike rates mean we have to factor this number into our betting! Andrew Mullen has been riding more winners at Newcastle than Joe Fanning and trainer Ben Haslam is easily top trainer and without our Racecourse Templates to show the landscape we doubt the general betting public would know that...

GOING: Standard to Slow

Betfair Exchange Northumberland Plate Handicap (Class 2) 2m56y

16/17: Won over at least 1m4f before on the flat (94%)
16/17: Finished fifth or better last time out (94%)
15/17: Came from stall 14 or lower (88%)
15/17: Aged 6yo or younger (88%)
13/17: Won over at least 1m6f before on the flat (76%)
13/17: Finished in the top three in their previous race (76%)
10/17: Carried 8st 12lbs or less (59%)
..9/17: Returned a double-figure price in the betting (53%)
....2/4: Trained by Roger Charlton (50%)
..8/17: At least 2 turf flat runs already that season (47%)
....3/7: Winning favourites (43%)
..5/13: Ran at Ascot or Haydock last time out (38%)
..6/17: Won by a National Hunt yard (35%)
..5/17: Won their previous race (29%)
..9/33: Winning favourites (1 joint) (27%)
..3/11: Ran at Haydock last time out (27%)
..4/17: Winning favourites (24%)
..3/17: Won on the flat at Newcastle before (18%)
..2/17: Trained by Donald McCain (12%)
..1/17: Won by a previous winner of the race (6%)
..0/33: Older than 8yo (0%)

The average winning SP in the last 17 years is 13/1
The 2016, 2017 and 2018 event was staged on All Weather track at Newcastle

RECENT WINNERS

2018: Withhold (5/1f)
2017: Higher Power (11/2)
2016: Antiquarium (16/1)
2015: Quest For More (15/2)
2014: Angel Gabrial (4/1f)
2013: Tominator (8/1)
2012: Ile de Re (5/2f)
2011: Tominator (25/1)
2010: Overturn (14/1)
2009: Som Tala (16/1)
2008: Arc Bleu (14/1)
2007: Juniper Girl (5/1f)
2006: Toldo (33/1)
2005: Sergeant Cecil (14/1)
2004: Mirjan (33/1)
2003: Unleash (10/1)
2002: Bangalore (8/1)

TIMFORM

Both his wellbeing and stamina need taking on trust but GIBBS HILL, the subject of a major ante-post gamble, could turn out to be a cut-above these rivals. Indeed, he was impressive at Kempton when last seen in 2017 and there's no shortage of stamina in his pedigree. Last year's winner Withhold has more on his plate this time round, and Speedo Boy and Who Dares Wins may emerge as the main dangers.

THE RACING HORSE VERDICT

1 BARTHOLOMEU DIAS 14/1 (4th)  2 WHO DARES WINS 14/1 (WINNER)  3 RED GALILEO 12/1  4 STRATUM 6/1

Bartholomeu Dias ran a career best when winning 14-runner handicap at this course (12.4f, 18/1) 71 days ago, well positioned. 4lb rise fair, this represents a step into the unknown trip-wise. It was hard to chose between the nomination and Who Dares Win. A small stake win on each for us. There are two fancied horses in the race who might need this run in Gibbs Hill and Dubawi Fifty, obviously if they are particularly fit they should feature...

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  Today's Pacafi: click here

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