VASILIEV 3.50 Windsor at 11/10

Royal Windsor Racecourse Panoramic 1866 Restaurant Novice Stakes (Class 4) 1m31y

Pedigree: 180,000gns vdor Y); 5th foal; brother to winners Zonderland (7f-1m inc 2yo AW/Gr 3; RPR 116) & Whitlock (1m2f; 95), half-brother to 1m4f AW winner Osipova (94); dam placed 7f-1m (76) sister to Listed-placed 7f winner Safina out of 6f-1m2f Group 1 winner

Trainer Form: 11-77 for 14%  (10)
OR & RPR: 89 & 97            (10)                                     
Optimum Ground: Good         (10)
Optimum Distance: 1m         (10)
Jockey: Adam Kirby           (10)

The Racing Horse Composite:  (50)

VASILIEV (STATISTICS): 

      Win Plc Run  RPR             Win Plc Run  RPR
Life   0   3   3    97    GF-Hd     0   1   1    96
2019   0   2   2    97    G         0   1   0    90
Dis    0   3   3    97    GS-HVY    0   1   1    97
Crs    0   0   0     0    6-15rnrs  0   3   3    97
Cl4    0   1   1    97    9.1to9.7  0   3   3    97

DANGER: AL BATTAR 15/8

 Sets more than a decent standard, winner needs OR of 90+

Vasiliev has been placed on all three starts so far and was clear of the rest when runner-up at Leicester last time. All races contested were stronger than today and the son of Dutch Art is very hard to oppose. Rated 89, he sets a decent standard for the others to aim at. He his fit and well and has to beat a horse coming back from a 200-day break and a first time upper!

Ground conditions

Some pundits are talking about the ground and whether it might be a bit quick for him but his full brother Zonderland (also trained by Clive Cox) won 2 of his 3 races on good to firm and the other on standard. He won nothing with soft in the title. The dam Barynya's best finish was on good to firm also. The sire Dutch Art was at his best on good to firm so the ground should not be a concern.

Trainer and jockey form

Clive Cox is not considered a prolific winning trainer but has recorded 11 wins in June, his best is 14 in July 2016. He has a strike rate of 23% at Windsor since the start of the 2015 season but worth noting this course is his second best regarding winners where he registers 60-434 for 14%. Only Kempton shows more winners for the trainer (78). The Racing Horse likes jockey Adam Kirby and he has a 35% strike rate when riding favourites. The trainer runs 5 tomorrow at Windsor.

Of his rivals 

Al Battar was noted putting in some good late work. An expensive second foal of a Falmouth winner, he can leave the bare form of this well behind and rates the danger. Al Battar wasn’t beaten that far when only sixth at Kempton but the remainder with experience are hard to recommend. The Pastoral Bear makes little appeal but fellow newcomer Fiery Mission is an interesting newcomer being a half-brother to Listed-placed Ultrasonic and he certainly merits a market inspection. He is a half-brother to three winners who all scored for Michael Stoute but is likely to be schooled on the racecourse today unless the market tells us otherwise!

Timeform 

VASILIEV showed useful form when finding only one too good at Leicester 3 weeks ago and he is fancied to put his greater experience to good use and come out on top now. Al Battar caught the eye in a race that has worked out well at Kempton back in December and is feared with significant improvement expected, whilst appealing-newcomer Fiery Mission is also worth a look.

Value

Hard to be certain about value here because we have a decent sort back from a break to beat and a well-bred Michael Stoute runner but the ratings and percentages point to being on the right side of value. In times like these we ask ourselves what price would we offer the Pacafi - our answer would be something closer to 10/11 and if we had a good paddock then 4/5. If Al Battar looked a bit burly that would not be a bad thing either, history tells us to be less worried about a 3yo newcomer from the Stoute stable, we do appreciate both the dam and sire won first or second time out so it is possible this could be an early sort even for Stoute! The market will tell our members about that one...

~

     The Racing Horse will update the results of our 2018 Pacafi's as soon as possible especially for those who use percentage of the bank staking which is our preferred option. Our results will show advised odds/best price guaranteed, result, stake, win or lose, balance and strike-rate. The results will be shown at 1pt win stakes. From 1st March 2018 we will use 1 to 2pt win staking when appropriate and most favourable including the use of stake-savers.

25 Vasiliev          2.10  WIN  1.00  +1.10  +0.33  S/R 56%
24 Chef De Troupe    1.62  WIN  1.00  +0.62  -0.77  S/R 54%
23 Anthony Van Dyck  2.37  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -1.39  S/R 52%
22 Faylaq            1.53  WIN  1.00  +0.53  -0.39  S/R 55% 
21 Walk In Marrakesh 1.62  WIN  1.00  +0.62  -0.92  S/R 52%
20 Mutamaasik        1.91  WIN  1.00  +0.91  -1.54  S/R 50%
19 Saqqara King      1.80  WIN  1.00  +0.80  -2.45  S/R 47%
18 Kodiac Pride      2.10  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -3.25  S/R 44%
17 Stradivarius (S)  2.25  WIN  1.25  +1.00  -2.25  S/R 47%
16 Faylaq            2.25  WIN  1.00  +1.25  -3.25  S/R 44%
15 Magical (S)       2.87  LOSE 1.25  +0.13  -4.50  S/R 40% 
14 Too Darn Hot (S)  3.50  LOSE 1.50  -1.50  -4.63  S/R 43%
13 Battaash          3.00  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -3.13  S/R 46%
12 Mekong            2.25  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -2.13  S/R 50%
11 Dream Kart        1.57  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -1.13  S.R 55%
10 Tempus            1.53  WIN  1.00  +0.53  -0.13  S/R 60%
 9 Tapiserrie 2xR4   2.25  WIN  1.00  +0.69  -0.66  S/R 56%
 8 Far Above         1.72  WIN  1.00  +0.72  -1.35  S/R 50%
 7 Neon Sea R4       2.20  WIN  1.00  +1.08  -2.07  S/R 43%
 6 Nahham (S)        2.75  LOSE 1.25  -1.25  -3.15  S/R 33%
 5 Theban'kingrebel  1.72  WIN  1.00  +0.72  -1.93  S/R 40% 
 4 Quiet Place       2.10  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -2.65  S/R 25%
 3 Ricochet (S)      2.37  LOSE 1.25  -1.25  -1.65  S/R 33%
 2 Separate          1.80  WIN  1.00  +0.80  -0.40  S/R 50% 
 1 Sir Dragonet (S)  4.00  LOSE 1.20  -1.20  -1.20  S/R  0%

June SELECTIONS: 25  WIN: 14  LOSE: 11  S/R: 56%   PROFIT: +0.33pts

(51421411113L2321131111211)      FINISHED First or Second (72.00%)

25 Mind The Crack    1.72  WIN  1.00  +0.72  +3.04  S/R  56% 
24 Izvestia R4(S)    3.00  WIN  1.25  +1.65  +2.32  S/R  54%
23 Battaash          2.25  WIN  1.00  +1.25  +0.67  S/R  52%
22 Star Of Bengal    2.00  WIN  1.00  +1.00  -0.58  S/R  50%
21 Tabassor (S)      3.25  WIN  1.25  +2.00  -1.58  S/R  48%
20 Jane Lamb         1.80  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -3.58  S/R  45%
19 Raise You (S)     2.25  WIN  1.25  +1.00  -2.58  S/R  47%
18 Stradivarius      1.80  WIN  1.00  +0.80  -3.58  S/R  44%
17 Soldiers Call (S) 3.75  LOSE 1.20  +0.00  -4.38  S/R  41%
16 Humanitarian      1.72  WIN  1.00  +0.72  -4.38  S/R  44%
15 Run For Mary      1.40  WIN  1.00  +0.40  -5.10  S/R  40%
14 Quiet Place       1.91  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -5.50  S/R  36% 
13 Broome            1.44  WIN  1.00  +0.44  -4.50  S/R  38%
12 Tapissier         2.25  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -4.94  S/R  33%
11 Salouen           1.72  WIN  1.00  +0.72  -3.94  S/R  36%
10 Konigin Ara       4.30  LOSE 1.30  -1.30  -4.66  S/R  30%
 9 Welsh Saint       1.72  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -3.36  S/R  33%
 8 Aphaea            1.83  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -2.36  S/R  37%
 7 Commodore Barry   1.50  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -1.36  S/R  43%
 6 Magical           1.40  WIN  1.00  +0.40  -0.36  S/R  50%
 5 Deputise          3.75  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -0.76  S/R  40%
 4 Klassique (S)     2.87  LOSE 1.25  -0.31  +0.24  S/R  50%
 3 Coolagh Forest    1.83  WIN  1.00  +0.83  +0.55  S/R  67%
 2 The Big Getaway   2.87  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -0.28  S/R  50%
 1 Calyx             1.72  WIN  1.00  +0.72  +0.72  S/R 100%

May SELECTIONS: 25  WIN: 14  LOSE: 11  S/R: 56%   PROFIT: +3.04pts

(1212L122F4121211311211111)      FINISHED First or Second (84.00%) 

14 Mokammal          2.37  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +2.59  S/R  57%
13 Ustath            1.44  WIN  1.00  +0.44  +3.59  S/R  62%
12 Oasis Prince      1.80  WIN  1.00  +0.80  +3.15  S/R  58%
11 Nearooz (S)       2.25  WIN  1.25  +1.00  +2.35  S/R  55%
10 Magic Saint       1.91  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +1.35  S/R  50%
 9 Cape Victory      1.67  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +2.35  S/R  56%
 8 Falco Blitz       1.67  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +3.35  S/R  63%
 7 Sir Ron Priestly  1.72  WIN  1.00  +0.72  +4.35  S/R  71%
 6 Alminoor          1.80  WIN  1.00  +0.80  +3.63  S/R  67%
 5 Magical (S)       2.37  WIN  1.20  +1.17  +2.83  S/R  60%
 4 Festival Of Ages  3.00  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +1.66  S/R  50%
 3 Pilaster          1.40  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +2.66  S/R  67%
 2 Private Secretary 1.91  WIN  1.00  +0.91  +3.66  S/R 100%
 1 Pentland Hills    3.75  WIN  1.00  +2.75  +2.75  S/R 100%

April SELECTIONS: 14  WIN: 8  LOSE: 6  S/R: 57%   PROFIT: +2.59pts

(113L1112221113)      FINISHED First or Second (78.57%)