FLEETING PRINCE 6.00 Windsor at 11/8

EBF Novice Stakes (Class 5) (2yo) 6f12y

Pedigree: E70,000 F, £70,000 Y; sixth foal; half-brother to winners You're Fired (6f-8.5f inc AW 2yo; RPR 111) and George Reme (7f AW; 78); dam 6f-7f Fibresand winner (73), half-sister to US 1m stakes winner Strike Rate, is granddaughter of 1m2f Listed winner

Trainer Form: 8-39 for 21%   (10)
RPR: 85                       (9)                                     
Optimum Ground: Good         (10)
Optimum Distance: 6f         (10)
Jockey: Kieran Shoemark       (9)

The Racing Horse Composite:  (48)

Main danger: Hubert 13/8

Group 2 entry

Fleeting Prince is a 2yo No Nay Never colt who has a Group 2 Gimcrack entry trained by Charlie Hills who is in great form, and it looks as though he has to beat a 2yo Kodiac colt trained by the out of form Sylvester Kirk who has no fancy entries. With RPR's of 87 and 85 it looks likely one of the front two in the market will win unless the market speaks strongly of Comvida, an interesting debutant for the Palmer team.

Big improvement on the cards

Fleeting Prince is a half brother to the very good You're Fired and has a first run for Charles Hills after leaving the now-retired Jeremy Noseda and shaped particularly well on debut in a Class 4 Maiden, which might be better form than it originally looked. He loomed into contention but then showed his inexperience, wandering around when asked for his effort beaten just over a length by a decent filly Huboor who was receiving 5lbs. That one had run well on debut previously behind a very exciting prospect. A big improvement is expected today especially given his entries.

Trainer form

Charlie Hills has his horses in fantastic form at the moment and certainly in better form than Sylvester Kirk, the figures show:

CHARLIE HILLS
July: 8 wins from 39 for 21%
June: 6 wins from 67 for 9%
May: 12 wins from 65 for 18%
Total: 26 wins from 171 for 15%

SYLVESTER KIRK
July:  0 wins from 6 for 0%
June: 2 wins from 30 for 7%
May:  5 wins from 22 for 23%
Total: 7 wins from 58 for 12%

So the best recent form is with Hills. His national average is 13%  and he's firing at 21% at the moment compared to the 10% of Kirk and the 0% or 7%. At Windsor Hills record shows 27 winners from 221 for 12% strike rate and a profit to level stakes, Kirk records 21-334 for 6% and a massive loss. Jockey Kieran Shoemark is a 7% winning jockey at Windsor so not really a positive though the top trainers (Gosden, Stoute, Charlton, Dunlop) use him on some of their best horses. He combines to score 5-44 for 11% with Hills. Our knowledge of him is probably less than it should be when trying to be objective.

Of his rivals

Hubert confirmed the promise that he displayed on debut at Windsor when going down by just half a length on his next start at the same venue. A reproduction of either of those efforts makes him the one to beat. Claudia Jean needs to improve on her debut run but she probably will and the Hannon team enjoyed a cracking weekend.

Timeform

HUBERT improved markedly from his debut when second over C&D just over 2 weeks ago, and looks the one to beat. Fleeting Prince shaped well on debut and is a big danger to the selection, while Comvida is a newcomer to take seriously.

Value

We had priced this race up at: Evens Fleeting Prince 7/4 Hubert 8/1 Comvida 20/1 Bar. Our members will know the importance we place on trainer form but in our opinion the form of the front two are very close together and with just one run might improve the most of the two. We appreciate Hubert has course form to its credit and will be ridden by Oisin Murphy (10) but we believe we have the bare form, trainer form and the ratings covered with perceived value! The mathematics does give us the edge we need to commit to Fleeting Prince.

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COMING UP

KING GEORGE VI and QUEEN ELIZABETH STAKES

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     The Racing Horse will update the results of our 2018 Pacafi's as soon as possible especially for those who use percentage of the bank staking which is our preferred option. Our results will show advised odds/best price guaranteed, result, stake, win or lose, balance and strike-rate. The results will be shown at 1pt win stakes. From 1st March 2018 we will use 1 to 2pt win staking when appropriate and most favourable including the use of stake-savers.

10
 9 Fleeting Prince   2.37  WIN  1.00  +1.37  -0.56  S/R  56%
 8 Faylaq            2.50  LOSE 1.25  -1.25  -0.81  S/R  50%
 7 Spartan Fighter   1.50  WIN  1.00  +0.50  +0.44  S/R  57%
 6 Masar             2.25  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -0.06  S/R  50%
 5 Incredulous       2.50  WIN  1.00  +1.50  +0.94  S/R  60%
 4 Vivionn           2.25  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -0.56  S/R  50%
 3 Mighty Spirit     1.80  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +0.44  S/R  67%
 2 Buhturi           1.72  WIN  1.00  +0.72  +1.44  S/R 100%
 1 Last Empire       1.72  WIN  1.00  +0.72  +0.72  S/R 100%

July SELECTIONS: 9  WIN: 5  LOSE: 4  S/R: 56%   PROFIT: +0.56pts

(112L1L121) FINISHED First or Second (77.78%)

S denotes shorten: D denotes drift (SSSSDSSSS - 88.89%)

25 Vasiliev          2.10  WIN  1.00  +1.10  +0.33  S/R 56%
24 Chef De Troupe    1.62  WIN  1.00  +0.62  -0.77  S/R 54%
23 Anthony Van Dyck  2.37  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -1.39  S/R 52%
22 Faylaq            1.53  WIN  1.00  +0.53  -0.39  S/R 55% 
21 Walk In Marrakesh 1.62  WIN  1.00  +0.62  -0.92  S/R 52%
20 Mutamaasik        1.91  WIN  1.00  +0.91  -1.54  S/R 50%
19 Saqqara King      1.80  WIN  1.00  +0.80  -2.45  S/R 47%
18 Kodiac Pride      2.10  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -3.25  S/R 44%
17 Stradivarius (S)  2.25  WIN  1.25  +1.00  -2.25  S/R 47%
16 Faylaq            2.25  WIN  1.00  +1.25  -3.25  S/R 44%
15 Magical (S)       2.87  LOSE 1.25  +0.13  -4.50  S/R 40% 
14 Too Darn Hot (S)  3.50  LOSE 1.50  -1.50  -4.63  S/R 43%
13 Battaash          3.00  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -3.13  S/R 46%
12 Mekong            2.25  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -2.13  S/R 50%
11 Dream Kart        1.57  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -1.13  S.R 55%
10 Tempus            1.53  WIN  1.00  +0.53  -0.13  S/R 60%
 9 Tapiserrie 2xR4   2.25  WIN  1.00  +0.69  -0.66  S/R 56%
 8 Far Above         1.72  WIN  1.00  +0.72  -1.35  S/R 50%
 7 Neon Sea R4       2.20  WIN  1.00  +1.08  -2.07  S/R 43%
 6 Nahham (S)        2.75  LOSE 1.25  -1.25  -3.15  S/R 33%
 5 Theban'kingrebel  1.72  WIN  1.00  +0.72  -1.93  S/R 40% 
 4 Quiet Place       2.10  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -2.65  S/R 25%
 3 Ricochet (S)      2.37  LOSE 1.25  -1.25  -1.65  S/R 33%
 2 Separate          1.80  WIN  1.00  +0.80  -0.40  S/R 50% 
 1 Sir Dragonet (S)  4.00  LOSE 1.20  -1.20  -1.20  S/R  0%

June SELECTIONS: 25  WIN: 14  LOSE: 11  S/R: 56%   PROFIT: +0.33pts

(51421411113L2321131111211)      FINISHED First or Second (72.00%)

25 Mind The Crack    1.72  WIN  1.00  +0.72  +3.04  S/R  56% 
24 Izvestia R4(S)    3.00  WIN  1.25  +1.65  +2.32  S/R  54%
23 Battaash          2.25  WIN  1.00  +1.25  +0.67  S/R  52%
22 Star Of Bengal    2.00  WIN  1.00  +1.00  -0.58  S/R  50%
21 Tabassor (S)      3.25  WIN  1.25  +2.00  -1.58  S/R  48%
20 Jane Lamb         1.80  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -3.58  S/R  45%
19 Raise You (S)     2.25  WIN  1.25  +1.00  -2.58  S/R  47%
18 Stradivarius      1.80  WIN  1.00  +0.80  -3.58  S/R  44%
17 Soldiers Call (S) 3.75  LOSE 1.20  +0.00  -4.38  S/R  41%
16 Humanitarian      1.72  WIN  1.00  +0.72  -4.38  S/R  44%
15 Run For Mary      1.40  WIN  1.00  +0.40  -5.10  S/R  40%
14 Quiet Place       1.91  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -5.50  S/R  36% 
13 Broome            1.44  WIN  1.00  +0.44  -4.50  S/R  38%
12 Tapissier         2.25  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -4.94  S/R  33%
11 Salouen           1.72  WIN  1.00  +0.72  -3.94  S/R  36%
10 Konigin Ara       4.30  LOSE 1.30  -1.30  -4.66  S/R  30%
 9 Welsh Saint       1.72  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -3.36  S/R  33%
 8 Aphaea            1.83  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -2.36  S/R  37%
 7 Commodore Barry   1.50  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -1.36  S/R  43%
 6 Magical           1.40  WIN  1.00  +0.40  -0.36  S/R  50%
 5 Deputise          3.75  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -0.76  S/R  40%
 4 Klassique (S)     2.87  LOSE 1.25  -0.31  +0.24  S/R  50%
 3 Coolagh Forest    1.83  WIN  1.00  +0.83  +0.55  S/R  67%
 2 The Big Getaway   2.87  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -0.28  S/R  50%
 1 Calyx             1.72  WIN  1.00  +0.72  +0.72  S/R 100%

May SELECTIONS: 25  WIN: 14  LOSE: 11  S/R: 56%   PROFIT: +3.04pts

(1212L122F4121211311211111)      FINISHED First or Second (84.00%) 

14 Mokammal          2.37  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +2.59  S/R  57%
13 Ustath            1.44  WIN  1.00  +0.44  +3.59  S/R  62%
12 Oasis Prince      1.80  WIN  1.00  +0.80  +3.15  S/R  58%
11 Nearooz (S)       2.25  WIN  1.25  +1.00  +2.35  S/R  55%
10 Magic Saint       1.91  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +1.35  S/R  50%
 9 Cape Victory      1.67  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +2.35  S/R  56%
 8 Falco Blitz       1.67  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +3.35  S/R  63%
 7 Sir Ron Priestly  1.72  WIN  1.00  +0.72  +4.35  S/R  71%
 6 Alminoor          1.80  WIN  1.00  +0.80  +3.63  S/R  67%
 5 Magical (S)       2.37  WIN  1.20  +1.17  +2.83  S/R  60%
 4 Festival Of Ages  3.00  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +1.66  S/R  50%
 3 Pilaster          1.40  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +2.66  S/R  67%
 2 Private Secretary 1.91  WIN  1.00  +0.91  +3.66  S/R 100%
 1 Pentland Hills    3.75  WIN  1.00  +2.75  +2.75  S/R 100%

April SELECTIONS: 14  WIN: 8  LOSE: 6  S/R: 57%   PROFIT: +2.59pts

(113L1112221113)      FINISHED First or Second (78.57%)