Pacafi (6 August 2019)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

ROCHESTER HOUSE 4.40 Catterick at 4/5

Racing TV Profits Returned To Racing Handicap (Class 4) (3yo+ 0-85) 1m7f189y

Pedigree: E90,000 Y; fourth foal; half-brother to two winners in Germany; dam French 1m2f-12.5f winner (inc Group 3; RPR 107), sister to German 1m2f Group 3 winner Karavel, half-sister to Italian 1m 2yo Gr 1/German 1m4f Gr 2 winner Konigstiger, family of Pentire

Trainer Form: 19-112 for 17% (10)
OR: 87                       (10)                                     
Optimum Ground: Good         (10)
Optimum Distance: 2m         (10)
Jockey: Joe Fanning          (10)

The Racing Horse Composite:  (50)

Main danger: Piedita 9/2

RACE TYPE: 3yo winning favourites in handicaps:
37-122 for 30% (-13.90)

Career best last time, improving over distances.

Rochester House has been successful at 1m 4f and 2m on good to firm ground but today has to transfer his form on good to soft ground. The colt won his latest outing at Beverley over 2m as the 3/10 favourite in imperious fashion last month, beating Snookered by 8l after controlling the pace from the front before bolting clear. That race was a Class 4 Handicap and today is the same grade and Joe Fanning rides the Galileo colt again and we can be certain he will want to ride the same race with a 5lb penalty.

Johnston is a bore

As a racing person we are not a fan of trainer Mark Johnston, he is a bore and disregards the betting side of racing and despite being a vet flogs his horses. We cannot dismiss his training ability and he is in the best form of his career and for the first time hitting a national average of 19% with 178 winners from 928 runners. He has always done well at Catterick and currently stands at 140-716 for 20% (-44.23). 

Of his rivals

Piedita is the main danger from the Sir Mark Prescott yard. He was a 16/1 seventh of 8 in handicap at Ascot over 2m on good firm on her reappearance 11 days ago and today gets her favoured ground conditions. Every chance she'll come on for that and the stable are in excellent form. She is rated 4lbs inferior and has to give the Pacafi 9lbs for a 13lbs turnaround but as with a lot of Prescott runners she might be hiding something though now a 5yo.

Timeform

ROCHESTER HOUSE landed the odds in comfortable fashion at Beverley 3 weeks ago and this looks another good opportunity for Mark Johnston's unexposed 3yo. Piedita is entitled to strip fitter for her recent return and is selected for the forecast.

Value

The Pacafi won in the same grade last time out controlling a small field from the front. The penalty will not beat the Galileo colt and on ratings has 14lbs in hand on the mare Piedita, 13lbs with Yabass and The Resdev Way. The word soft is in the ground title and this should not be a problem as he has previously been asked to run on both good to soft and heavy ground. The sire Galileo won on heavy and the dam won on soft and good to soft (out of Monsun), in fact the dam was not beaten on good to soft with 2-2 and was 1-2 on soft ground.

Weather

Rain will hit Catterick probably some time after 1pm so we have assumed the ground will be soft...

Other

We know very little about the breeding game, though we were lucky to spend a day with Monty Roberts and he gave us some basic/ground rules to adhere too. One of the things that has amazed us is a situation like today.

For example, the mare of our Pacafi is Kalla and she has produced two boys so far. The first was the 6yo Katalan out of Alderflug (GER), to date his finishing positions read 8089/R440/ and from those 8 races has hardly beaten a runner home though somehow managed to win £313 in prize money. Now here is the thing we simply do not understand, why, why, why oh why has trainer John Butler only raced Katalan on the AW? The dam Kalla has never been raced on it, we know she likes soft ground, the general opposite to the AW and the sire Alderflug never raced on it either, he was also a soft to heavy ground horse.

Even accepting the fact Katalan might not like the racing game or have any ability surely before the age of 6 the trainer (or owner) would have wondered if his charge would be better on ground he was bred to race on? It really is baffling from our perspective and the only thing we can say with certainty is owner Miss Alice Haynes is either wealthy or has a kind disposition! Obviously we are missing something...

***  

     The Racing Horse will update the results of our 2018 Pacafi's as soon as possible especially for those who use percentage of the bank staking which is our preferred option. Our results will show advised odds/best price guaranteed, result, stake, win or lose, balance and strike-rate. The results will be shown at 1pt win stakes. From 1st March 2018 we will use 1 to 2pt win staking when appropriate and most favourable including the use of stake-savers.

 5 Rochester House   1.80  WIN  1.00  +0.80  +0.62  S/R  60%
 4 Streamline        1.91  WIN  1.00  +0.91  -0.18  S/R  50%
 3 First In Line     1.91  WIN  1.00  +0.91  -1.09  S/R  33%
 2 The King          1.91  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -2.00  S/R   0%
 1 Mass Media        2.75  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -1.00  S/R   0%

August SELECTIONS: 5  WIN: 3  LOSE: 2  S/R: 60%   PROFIT: +0.62pts

(L3111) FINISHED First or Second (60%)

(DDSSS) SHORTENS in price (60%)

17 Global Hunter     2.10  WIN  1.00  +1.10  +5.12  S/R  65%
16 Summer Romance    2.00  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +4.02  S/R  63%
15 Walk In Marrakesh 3.00  WIN  1.25  +1.75  +5.02  S/R  67%
14 Skeaping          1.83  WIN  1.00  +0.83  +3.27  S/R  64%
13 Burn Some Dust    2.37  WIN  1.00  +1.37  +2.44  S/R  62%
12 Byline            2.10  WIN  1.00  +1.10  +1.07  S/R  58%
11 New Arrangement   1.40  WIN  1.00  +0.40  -0.04  S/R  55%
10 Mon Frere         2.25  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -0.44  S/R  50%
 9 Fleeting Prince   2.37  WIN  1.00  +1.37  +0.56  S/R  56%
 8 Faylaq (S)        2.50  LOSE 1.25  -1.25  -0.81  S/R  50%
 7 Spartan Fighter   1.50  WIN  1.00  +0.50  +0.44  S/R  57%
 6 Masar             2.25  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -0.06  S/R  50%
 5 Incredulous       2.50  WIN  1.00  +1.50  +0.94  S/R  60%
 4 Vivionn           2.25  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -0.56  S/R  50%
 3 Mighty Spirit     1.80  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +0.44  S/R  67%
 2 Buhturi           1.72  WIN  1.00  +0.72  +1.44  S/R 100%
 1 Last Empire       1.72  WIN  1.00  +0.72  +0.72  S/R 100%

July SELECTIONS: 17  WIN: 11  LOSE: 6  S/R: 65%   PROFIT: +5.12pts

(112L1L12141111161) FINISHED First or Second (76.47%)

(SSSSDSSSSSSSSDSSSS) SHORTENS in price (88.24%)

25 Vasiliev          2.10  WIN  1.00  +1.10  +0.33  S/R 56%
24 Chef De Troupe    1.62  WIN  1.00  +0.62  -0.77  S/R 54%
23 Anthony Van Dyck  2.37  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -1.39  S/R 52%
22 Faylaq            1.53  WIN  1.00  +0.53  -0.39  S/R 55% 
21 Walk In Marrakesh 1.62  WIN  1.00  +0.62  -0.92  S/R 52%
20 Mutamaasik        1.91  WIN  1.00  +0.91  -1.54  S/R 50%
19 Saqqara King      1.80  WIN  1.00  +0.80  -2.45  S/R 47%
18 Kodiac Pride      2.10  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -3.25  S/R 44%
17 Stradivarius (S)  2.25  WIN  1.25  +1.00  -2.25  S/R 47%
16 Faylaq            2.25  WIN  1.00  +1.25  -3.25  S/R 44%
15 Magical (S)       2.87  LOSE 1.25  +0.13  -4.50  S/R 40% 
14 Too Darn Hot (S)  3.50  LOSE 1.50  -1.50  -4.63  S/R 43%
13 Battaash          3.00  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -3.13  S/R 46%
12 Mekong            2.25  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -2.13  S/R 50%
11 Dream Kart        1.57  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -1.13  S.R 55%
10 Tempus            1.53  WIN  1.00  +0.53  -0.13  S/R 60%
 9 Tapiserrie 2xR4   2.25  WIN  1.00  +0.69  -0.66  S/R 56%
 8 Far Above         1.72  WIN  1.00  +0.72  -1.35  S/R 50%
 7 Neon Sea R4       2.20  WIN  1.00  +1.08  -2.07  S/R 43%
 6 Nahham (S)        2.75  LOSE 1.25  -1.25  -3.15  S/R 33%
 5 Theban'kingrebel  1.72  WIN  1.00  +0.72  -1.93  S/R 40% 
 4 Quiet Place       2.10  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -2.65  S/R 25%
 3 Ricochet (S)      2.37  LOSE 1.25  -1.25  -1.65  S/R 33%
 2 Separate          1.80  WIN  1.00  +0.80  -0.40  S/R 50% 
 1 Sir Dragonet (S)  4.00  LOSE 1.20  -1.20  -1.20  S/R  0%

June SELECTIONS: 25  WIN: 14  LOSE: 11  S/R: 56%   PROFIT: +0.33pts

(51421411113L2321131111211)      FINISHED First or Second (72.00%)

25 Mind The Crack    1.72  WIN  1.00  +0.72  +3.04  S/R  56% 
24 Izvestia R4(S)    3.00  WIN  1.25  +1.65  +2.32  S/R  54%
23 Battaash          2.25  WIN  1.00  +1.25  +0.67  S/R  52%
22 Star Of Bengal    2.00  WIN  1.00  +1.00  -0.58  S/R  50%
21 Tabassor (S)      3.25  WIN  1.25  +2.00  -1.58  S/R  48%
20 Jane Lamb         1.80  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -3.58  S/R  45%
19 Raise You (S)     2.25  WIN  1.25  +1.00  -2.58  S/R  47%
18 Stradivarius      1.80  WIN  1.00  +0.80  -3.58  S/R  44%
17 Soldiers Call (S) 3.75  LOSE 1.20  +0.00  -4.38  S/R  41%
16 Humanitarian      1.72  WIN  1.00  +0.72  -4.38  S/R  44%
15 Run For Mary      1.40  WIN  1.00  +0.40  -5.10  S/R  40%
14 Quiet Place       1.91  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -5.50  S/R  36% 
13 Broome            1.44  WIN  1.00  +0.44  -4.50  S/R  38%
12 Tapissier         2.25  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -4.94  S/R  33%
11 Salouen           1.72  WIN  1.00  +0.72  -3.94  S/R  36%
10 Konigin Ara       4.30  LOSE 1.30  -1.30  -4.66  S/R  30%
 9 Welsh Saint       1.72  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -3.36  S/R  33%
 8 Aphaea            1.83  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -2.36  S/R  37%
 7 Commodore Barry   1.50  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -1.36  S/R  43%
 6 Magical           1.40  WIN  1.00  +0.40  -0.36  S/R  50%
 5 Deputise          3.75  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -0.76  S/R  40%
 4 Klassique (S)     2.87  LOSE 1.25  -0.31  +0.24  S/R  50%
 3 Coolagh Forest    1.83  WIN  1.00  +0.83  +0.55  S/R  67%
 2 The Big Getaway   2.87  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -0.28  S/R  50%
 1 Calyx             1.72  WIN  1.00  +0.72  +0.72  S/R 100%

May SELECTIONS: 25  WIN: 14  LOSE: 11  S/R: 56%   PROFIT: +3.04pts

(1212L122F4121211311211111)      FINISHED First or Second (84.00%) 

14 Mokammal          2.37  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +2.59  S/R  57%
13 Ustath            1.44  WIN  1.00  +0.44  +3.59  S/R  62%
12 Oasis Prince      1.80  WIN  1.00  +0.80  +3.15  S/R  58%
11 Nearooz (S)       2.25  WIN  1.25  +1.00  +2.35  S/R  55%
10 Magic Saint       1.91  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +1.35  S/R  50%
 9 Cape Victory      1.67  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +2.35  S/R  56%
 8 Falco Blitz       1.67  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +3.35  S/R  63%
 7 Sir Ron Priestly  1.72  WIN  1.00  +0.72  +4.35  S/R  71%
 6 Alminoor          1.80  WIN  1.00  +0.80  +3.63  S/R  67%
 5 Magical (S)       2.37  WIN  1.20  +1.17  +2.83  S/R  60%
 4 Festival Of Ages  3.00  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +1.66  S/R  50%
 3 Pilaster          1.40  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +2.66  S/R  67%
 2 Private Secretary 1.91  WIN  1.00  +0.91  +3.66  S/R 100%
 1 Pentland Hills    3.75  WIN  1.00  +2.75  +2.75  S/R 100%

April SELECTIONS: 14  WIN: 8  LOSE: 6  S/R: 57%   PROFIT: +2.59pts

(113L1112221113)      FINISHED First or Second (78.57%) 

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *