Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Meeting

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

The popular Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Meeting, though unique, is not something that excites us and we doubt very much a Pacafi will be nominated from those races. However, if there is an edge to exploit? The fixture splits the horses in each race into four teams – Europe, Great Britain & Ireland, Rest Of The World and Girls, with each horse being allocated team points based on their finishing positions.

Organisers of Saturday’s Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup at Ascot look like having to wait until Wednesday before knowing whether Frankie Dettori will be available to ride for the European team. The greatest jockey in the world cannot commit himself yet as he has a retainer with trainer John Gosden, who was not expected back from America until sometime on Tuesday. The Newmarket handler could have key runners elsewhere on Saturday with Crossed Baton pencilled in for the Smarkets Betting Rose Of Lancaster Stakes at Haydock and Pennywhistle holding an engagement in the german-thoroughbred.com Sweet Solera Stakes at Newmarket.

ASCOT RACECOURSE TEMPLATE

NON-HANDICAP RACES (5 YEARS)       HANDICAP RACES (5 YEARS)

2yo:    29-93  for 31%  (-13.31)     4-5   for 80%  (+4.20)
3yo:    33-88  for 38%   (-1.24)    31-117 for 26% (-16.80)
4yo+:   30-91  for 33%  (-18.81)    47-143 for 33% (+49.83)
Total:  92-272 for 34%  (-33.36)    82-265 for 31% (+37.23)

Top 5 Trainers at Ascot (current season)
John Gosden:     7 wins from 38 for 18%  (+1.86)
Mark Johnston:   6 wins from 46 for 13% (-12.12)
Michael Stoute:  5 wins from 22 for 23%  (+9.75)
Charlie Appleby: 5 wins from 34 for 15% (-16.75)
A P O'Brien:     5 wins from 57 for  9%  (-9.62)

Top 5 Jockeys at Ascot (current season)
Frankie Dettori: 11 wins from 37 for 30% (+38.36)
James Doyle:      6 wins from 38 for 16% (-10.25)
Ryan Moore:       6 wins from 40 for 15%  (-8.87)
Oisin Murphy:     5 wins from 50 for 10% (-27.83)
Daniel Tudhope:   4 wins from 10 for 40% (+47.00)

1.05: Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Dash Handicap (Class 2) 5f

11/11: Failed to win their last race (100%)
10/11: Aged 4 or 5yo (91%)
10/11: Raced at Ascot previously (91%)
10/11: Carried 9st 3lbs or more weight (91%)
10/11: Raced 4 or more times that season (91%)
10/11: Priced 6/1 or shorter (91%)
..8/11: Won at least 3 times in their career (73%)
..7/11: Favourites  placed (64%)
..6/11: Won over 5f previously (55%)
..5/11: Raced at Ascot last time out (45%)
..5/11: Favourites (1 joint) (45%)
..5/11: Winning distance – 1 or more lengths (45%)
..3/11: Trained by Robert Cowell (including 2 of the last 5 runnings) (27%)
..2/11: Won by the Andrew Balding yard (18%)

Tis Marvellous (6/1) won the race in 2018

TIMEFORM

CASPIAN PRINCE was the ready winner of a valuable event at Musselburgh 14 months ago when last this low in the weights and might be worth chancing with his sights lowered having contested listed/Group races on his last 3 starts. Stablemate Danzeno rates an obvious danger, while Stone of Destiny was better than the result at Goodwood last week and is starting to look well treated.

THE RACING HORSE VERDICT

1st: RECON MISSION 10/1  2nd: Corinthia Knight 10/1  3rd: Street Parade 18/1

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1.40: Dubai Duty Free Cup Stayers Handicap  (Class 2) 2m

14/15: Priced 8/1 or shorter (93%)
13/15: Carried 8st 13lbs or more (87%)
12/15: Raced within the last 2 weeks (80%)
12/15: Rated between 86-94 (80%)
12/15: Aged 4 or 5yo (80%)
12/15: Won between 2-5 times before (flat) (80%)
12/15: Raced at the track before (80%)
11/15: Favourites placed in the top 4 (73%)
11/15: Favourites placed in the top 4 (73%)
10/15: Ran at Ascot (5) or Goodwood (5) last time out (67%)
10/15: Came from the top 3 in the betting (67%)
..6/12: Horses from stall 9 placed in the top three (50%)
..6/15: Winning favourites (40%)
..3/10: Came from stall 9 (30%)
..2/15: Trained by Roger Charlton (13%)
..2/15: Trained by Ian Williams (13%)
..1/15: Won last time out (7%)
..0/13: No winners from stall 1 (0%)

Cleonte at 9/2 won the 2018

TIMEFORM

BILLY RAY could have more to offer as a stayer after a huge effort behind Withhold at Newbury and he has plenty going for him under Danny Tudhope. Time To Study is a big player on his third in the Ascot Stakes, while Eddystone Rock can go well under Hayley Turner.

THE RACING HORSE VERDICT

1st: BILLY RAY 4/1  2nd: Time To Study 10/1 (NON-RUNNER)  3rd: What A Welcome 7/1 (3rd)

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2.15: Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Challenge Handicap (Class 3) 1m4f

14/15: Aged 6yo or younger (93%)
13/15: Officially rated between 87-94 (87%)
13/15: Raced within the last 4 weeks (87%)
13/15: Carried 9st 2lbs or more (87%)
13/15: Won over 1m3f (or further) previously (87%)
12/15: Won between 1-4 times previously (80%)
..9/13: Winners came from stalls 5-8 (inc) (69%)
..9/15: Aged 4yo (60%)
..9/15: Came from outside top 3 in betting market (60%)
..8/15: Winning distance – 1 length or less (53%)
..7/15: Placed in the top 3 last time out (47%)
..7/15: Priced 9/1 or bigger in the betting market (47%)
..6/15: Ran at Ascot previously (40%)
..5/15: Won last time out (33%)
..2/15: Won by the Paul Cole yard (13%)
..2/15: Winning favourites (13%)

Genetics (9/1) won the race in 2018

TIMEFORM

MELTING DEW has been quiet in 2019 so far, but on the plus side he is just 1 lb above his last winning mark and the re-fitting of cheekpieces could be the catalyst to an improved showing (took well to same headgear last summer). Indianapolis shaped well in the Old Newton Cup and is respected, while Mandarin is a handicapper on the up.

THE RACING HORSE VERDICT

1st: RESHOUN 10/1  2nd: Mandarin 5/1 (3rd)  3rd: Koeman 12/1

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2.50: Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Mile Handicap (Class 2) 1m

15/15: Won over at least a mile before (100%)
15/15: Failed to win last time out (100%)
15/15: Raced within the last 5 weeks (100%)
14/15: Priced 8/1 or shorter (93%)
14/15: Aged 4 or 5yo (93%)
14/15: Rated between 92-100 (93%)
14/15: Carried 9st 2lbs or more in weight (93%)
13/15: Came from top 3 in the betting (87%)
12/15: Won between 2-4 times before (80%)
11/14: Winners returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting (79%)
10/15: Favourites that finished in the top 4 (67%)
10/15: Ran at Ascot before (67%)
..4/15: Ran at Goodwood last time out (27%)
..3/13: Winners came from stall 1 (23%)
..3/15: Trained by Andrew Balding (20%)
..3/15: Winning favourites (20%)

Via Serendipity (7/2) won the race in 2018

TIMEFORM

ANOTHER BATT travelled like one that's right back in form when stuck on the wrong side of the track here last time and, dropping into a lesser grade, he looks to have a massive chance on just his third outing for a new stable. Nicholas T is on a roll and must be respected under Spencer, while a bounce back to form from Waarif would be no surprise.

THE RACING HORSE VERDICT

1st: VIA SERENDIPITY 11/2  2nd: Power Of Darkness 4/1 (WINNER)  3rd: Original Choice 12/1

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3.25: Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Classic Handicap (Class 3) 1m4f

10/10: Raced 3 or more times that season (100%)
..8/10: Carried 9st 2lbs or more in weight (80%)
..8/10: Won over 1m2f or further previously (80%)
..8/10: Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting (80%)
..8/10: Winning distance of 1 length or less (80%)
..7/10: Winners came from stalls 5, 7 or 8 (70%)
..7/10: Officially rated between 84-90 (70%)
..4/10: Raced at Ascot last time out (40%)
..4/10: Favourites placed (40%)
..2/10: Winning favourites (20%)
..2/10: Trained by Richard Hannon (20%)
..2/10: Trained by Mark Johnston (20%)

Berkshire Blue at 9/2 won the race in 2018

TIMEFORM

Mark Johnston's trio all have reasonable claims but SAPA INCA, who produced a career best when second at Goodwood (despite meeting trouble) last week, looks the pick of them and gets the nod to come out on top in this tightly-knit affair. Vivid Diamond and Never Do Nothing are both consistent types expected to give their all once again.

THE RACING HORSE VERDICT

1st: NEVER DO NOTHING 5/1 (2nd)  2nd: Aspire Tower 12/1 (3rd)  3rd: Sapa Inca 11/2 (WINNER)

Exacta: £14.40 & CSF: £22.61 Tricast: £187.17 Trifecta: £46.90

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4.00: Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Sprint Handicap (Class 2) 6f

15/15: Carried 8st 12lbs or more (100%)
14/15: Ran within the last 4-5 weeks (93%)
13/15: Priced 8/1 or shorter (87%)
12/15: Won between 2-3 times previously (80%)
13/15: Won over 6f previously (87%)
13/15: Carried 9st 1lbs or more in weight (87%)
11/15: Officially rated between 86-95 (73%)
10/15: Came from the top three in the betting (67%)
10/15: Priced 6/1 or shorter (67%)
10/15: Favourites placed (67%)
..7/15: Ran at Ascot previously (47%)
..6/13: Winners came from stalls 5-8 (inc) (46%)
..4/15: Won last time out (27%)
..3/15: Won by the Roger Charlton yard (20%)
..3/15: Winning Favourites (20%)

Green Power (12/1) won the race in 2018

TIMEFORM

A winner on return at Ripon in May, VICTORY DAY continued the theme of race-by-race progress when runner-up on handicap debut at York in June, just failing to get up. Very much the type to go on improving, all looks set fair for another big run here. Pass The Vino and Kinks are closely matched on their Newmarket form and are also fancied to play lead roles once more.

THE RACING HORSE VERDICT

1st: VICTORY DAY 9/4 (WINNER)  2nd: Hero Hero 7/1  3rd: Pass The Vino 5/1 (2nd)

Exacta: £10.90 & CSF: £9.71

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  Today's Pacafi: click here

Proven mathematical laws are the governing force of horse racing betting. Consequently every bet we place is conceived then predicated from statistical analysis protected by a math-based edge with perceived value attached. Our formula is simple because we are yet to be convinced that a complication of a system is proportional to profit. So what do we mean by a math-based edge? It means finding something with a solid mathematical core, something historically profitable and something that is unlikely to change or suffer fatigue going forward. Then, if we can filter negative influences from the original proposal and provide a sound rationale for doing so, we can claim that betting edge.

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