Pacafi (14 August 2019)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

FARZEEN 7.10 Kempton at 5/4

Breeders Backing Racing EBF Fillies' Novice Stakes (Class 5) (3yo+) 7f

Pedigree: 375,000gns Y; fifth foal; closely related to Greek 1m winner Ziggy Starman, half-sister to 1m2f winner Zee Zeely (RPR 89); dam unraced half-sister to 1m2f Group 1 winner Izzi Top and 1m2f Group 2 winner Jazzi Top out of 1m2f Group 1 winner

Trainer Form: 8-40 for 20%   (10)
RPR: 88                      (10)                                     
Optimum Ground: Good/Std     (10)
Optimum Distance: 7f         (10)
Jockey: Jack Mitchell        (10)

The Racing Horse Composite:  (50)

Main danger: Harbour City 7/1

RACE TYPE: 3yo winning favourites in non-handicaps:
106-232 for 46% (-9.55)

Big improvement last time, more to come

The betting suggested Farzeen would show a big improvement at Redcar a fortnight ago and Roger Varian’s filly duly obliged with a convincing three-length success, she’s taken to defy a penalty even though she has a couple of rivals from big stables to beat. Given the manner of her victory we doubt it was the drop to 7f that brought about the improvement, it is more likely the 375,000guns Farhh filly has come to hand and stepped forward and is likely to step further forward again from a plum draw to get a pitch on the rail before going for home at the cutaway.

Trainer form

Apart from ability, draw and a RPR of 88 in the book our filly will strip fit for tomorrow whilst two of our big rivals will be having their first run in public (New Angel) and first start back for 243 days (Havana Gold). Trainer Roger Varian has his horses in good form and shows 8-40 for 20% over the past 14 days and produced the best quarter of his career in April (17), May (18) and June (17). At Kempton this year he is one of the top trainers recording 8-32 for 25% (+11.86).

Jack Mitchell does not get the acclaim but seems to  go about his business without making obvious mistakes, his 100-518 for 19% when combining with Varian is testament to that. He is now riding to his highest strike rate ever this year hitting 16%. We are aware of the fact he rides work during races at Kempton for a number of trainers and his 35-390 for 9% reflects that, but Farzeen is not in this category. Today he goes to Salisbury for 3 rides and then Kempton for 2.

Of her rivals

Midas Girl went close at Ffos Las recently while Havana Jane and Harbour City are likely improvers though Havana Jane is having only her second start and is now a 4yo, so she must have had training problems of some sort. Of the newcomers. John Gosden introduces New Angel, the first foal of a Grade 3 winner from the family of high-class stayer Order Of St George, while Serenading cost Godolphin a whopping 525,000gns as a yearling but was sold to new connections for much less earlier this year.

Timeform 

FARZEEN left her debut well behind after 7 months off when running out an easy winner at Redcar and sets a high standard under a penalty. Well-connected newcomer New Angel is feared most ahead of Harbour City, who should last longer this time.

Value

We were delighted to be offered the 5/4 as we saw the Pacafi as closer to 10/11. For the Gosden newcomer to beat our nomination she would have to produce a RPR of 90+ on debut from a wide draw whilst Havana Jane is entitled to need the run. This 4yo has just one run on the clock so something must have held her up and of course Andrew Balding's runners are usually better for a run so hard to imagine her primed at this moment in time!

***

     The Racing Horse will update the results of our 2018 Pacafi's as soon as possible especially for those who use percentage of the bank staking which is our preferred option. Our results will show advised odds/best price guaranteed, result, stake, win or lose, balance and strike-rate. The results will be shown at 1pt win stakes. From 1st March 2018 we will use 1 to 2pt win staking when appropriate and most favourable including the use of stake-savers.

11 Farzeen            2.25  WIN  1.00  +1.25  +2.69  S/R  64%
10 Cool Sphere        1.67  WIN  1.00  +0.67  +1.44  S/R  60%
 9 Maystar            1.50  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +0.77  S/R  56%
 8 Burning Topic      2.37  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +1.77  S/R  63%
 7 Latrobe            1.90  WIN  1.00  +0.90  +2.77  S/R  71%
 6 British Modern Art 2.25  WIN  1.00  +1.25  +1.87  S/R  67%
 5 Rochester House    1.80  WIN  1.00  +0.80  +0.62  S/R  60%
 4 Streamline         1.91  WIN  1.00  +0.91  -0.18  S/R  50%
 3 First In Line      1.91  WIN  1.00  +0.91  -1.09  S/R  33%
 2 The King           1.91  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -2.00  S/R   0%
 1 Mass Media         2.75  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -1.00  S/R   0%

August SELECTIONS: 11  WIN: 7  LOSE: 4  S/R: 64%   PROFIT: +2.69pts

(L3111116211) FINISHED First or Second (72.73%)

(D-SSSSDSSSS) SHORTENS in price (81.82%)

17 Global Hunter     2.10  WIN  1.00  +1.10  +5.12  S/R  65%
16 Summer Romance    2.00  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +4.02  S/R  63%
15 Walk In Marrakesh 3.00  WIN  1.25  +1.75  +5.02  S/R  67%
14 Skeaping          1.83  WIN  1.00  +0.83  +3.27  S/R  64%
13 Burn Some Dust    2.37  WIN  1.00  +1.37  +2.44  S/R  62%
12 Byline            2.10  WIN  1.00  +1.10  +1.07  S/R  58%
11 New Arrangement   1.40  WIN  1.00  +0.40  -0.04  S/R  55%
10 Mon Frere         2.25  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -0.44  S/R  50%
 9 Fleeting Prince   2.37  WIN  1.00  +1.37  +0.56  S/R  56%
 8 Faylaq (S)        2.50  LOSE 1.25  -1.25  -0.81  S/R  50%
 7 Spartan Fighter   1.50  WIN  1.00  +0.50  +0.44  S/R  57%
 6 Masar             2.25  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -0.06  S/R  50%
 5 Incredulous       2.50  WIN  1.00  +1.50  +0.94  S/R  60%
 4 Vivionn           2.25  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -0.56  S/R  50%
 3 Mighty Spirit     1.80  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +0.44  S/R  67%
 2 Buhturi           1.72  WIN  1.00  +0.72  +1.44  S/R 100%
 1 Last Empire       1.72  WIN  1.00  +0.72  +0.72  S/R 100%

July SELECTIONS: 17  WIN: 11  LOSE: 6  S/R: 65%   PROFIT: +5.12pts

(112L1L12141111161) FINISHED First or Second (76.47%)

(SSSSDSSSSSSSSDSSSS) SHORTENS in price (88.24%)

25 Vasiliev          2.10  WIN  1.00  +1.10  +0.33  S/R 56%
24 Chef De Troupe    1.62  WIN  1.00  +0.62  -0.77  S/R 54%
23 Anthony Van Dyck  2.37  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -1.39  S/R 52%
22 Faylaq            1.53  WIN  1.00  +0.53  -0.39  S/R 55% 
21 Walk In Marrakesh 1.62  WIN  1.00  +0.62  -0.92  S/R 52%
20 Mutamaasik        1.91  WIN  1.00  +0.91  -1.54  S/R 50%
19 Saqqara King      1.80  WIN  1.00  +0.80  -2.45  S/R 47%
18 Kodiac Pride      2.10  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -3.25  S/R 44%
17 Stradivarius (S)  2.25  WIN  1.25  +1.00  -2.25  S/R 47%
16 Faylaq            2.25  WIN  1.00  +1.25  -3.25  S/R 44%
15 Magical (S)       2.87  LOSE 1.25  +0.13  -4.50  S/R 40% 
14 Too Darn Hot (S)  3.50  LOSE 1.50  -1.50  -4.63  S/R 43%
13 Battaash          3.00  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -3.13  S/R 46%
12 Mekong            2.25  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -2.13  S/R 50%
11 Dream Kart        1.57  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -1.13  S.R 55%
10 Tempus            1.53  WIN  1.00  +0.53  -0.13  S/R 60%
 9 Tapiserrie 2xR4   2.25  WIN  1.00  +0.69  -0.66  S/R 56%
 8 Far Above         1.72  WIN  1.00  +0.72  -1.35  S/R 50%
 7 Neon Sea R4       2.20  WIN  1.00  +1.08  -2.07  S/R 43%
 6 Nahham (S)        2.75  LOSE 1.25  -1.25  -3.15  S/R 33%
 5 Theban'kingrebel  1.72  WIN  1.00  +0.72  -1.93  S/R 40% 
 4 Quiet Place       2.10  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -2.65  S/R 25%
 3 Ricochet (S)      2.37  LOSE 1.25  -1.25  -1.65  S/R 33%
 2 Separate          1.80  WIN  1.00  +0.80  -0.40  S/R 50% 
 1 Sir Dragonet (S)  4.00  LOSE 1.20  -1.20  -1.20  S/R  0%

June SELECTIONS: 25  WIN: 14  LOSE: 11  S/R: 56%   PROFIT: +0.33pts

(51421411113L2321131111211)      FINISHED First or Second (72.00%)

25 Mind The Crack    1.72  WIN  1.00  +0.72  +3.04  S/R  56% 
24 Izvestia R4(S)    3.00  WIN  1.25  +1.65  +2.32  S/R  54%
23 Battaash          2.25  WIN  1.00  +1.25  +0.67  S/R  52%
22 Star Of Bengal    2.00  WIN  1.00  +1.00  -0.58  S/R  50%
21 Tabassor (S)      3.25  WIN  1.25  +2.00  -1.58  S/R  48%
20 Jane Lamb         1.80  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -3.58  S/R  45%
19 Raise You (S)     2.25  WIN  1.25  +1.00  -2.58  S/R  47%
18 Stradivarius      1.80  WIN  1.00  +0.80  -3.58  S/R  44%
17 Soldiers Call (S) 3.75  LOSE 1.20  +0.00  -4.38  S/R  41%
16 Humanitarian      1.72  WIN  1.00  +0.72  -4.38  S/R  44%
15 Run For Mary      1.40  WIN  1.00  +0.40  -5.10  S/R  40%
14 Quiet Place       1.91  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -5.50  S/R  36% 
13 Broome            1.44  WIN  1.00  +0.44  -4.50  S/R  38%
12 Tapissier         2.25  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -4.94  S/R  33%
11 Salouen           1.72  WIN  1.00  +0.72  -3.94  S/R  36%
10 Konigin Ara       4.30  LOSE 1.30  -1.30  -4.66  S/R  30%
 9 Welsh Saint       1.72  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -3.36  S/R  33%
 8 Aphaea            1.83  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -2.36  S/R  37%
 7 Commodore Barry   1.50  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -1.36  S/R  43%
 6 Magical           1.40  WIN  1.00  +0.40  -0.36  S/R  50%
 5 Deputise          3.75  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -0.76  S/R  40%
 4 Klassique (S)     2.87  LOSE 1.25  -0.31  +0.24  S/R  50%
 3 Coolagh Forest    1.83  WIN  1.00  +0.83  +0.55  S/R  67%
 2 The Big Getaway   2.87  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -0.28  S/R  50%
 1 Calyx             1.72  WIN  1.00  +0.72  +0.72  S/R 100%

May SELECTIONS: 25  WIN: 14  LOSE: 11  S/R: 56%   PROFIT: +3.04pts

(1212L122F4121211311211111)      FINISHED First or Second (84.00%) 

14 Mokammal          2.37  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +2.59  S/R  57%
13 Ustath            1.44  WIN  1.00  +0.44  +3.59  S/R  62%
12 Oasis Prince      1.80  WIN  1.00  +0.80  +3.15  S/R  58%
11 Nearooz (S)       2.25  WIN  1.25  +1.00  +2.35  S/R  55%
10 Magic Saint       1.91  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +1.35  S/R  50%
 9 Cape Victory      1.67  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +2.35  S/R  56%
 8 Falco Blitz       1.67  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +3.35  S/R  63%
 7 Sir Ron Priestly  1.72  WIN  1.00  +0.72  +4.35  S/R  71%
 6 Alminoor          1.80  WIN  1.00  +0.80  +3.63  S/R  67%
 5 Magical (S)       2.37  WIN  1.20  +1.17  +2.83  S/R  60%
 4 Festival Of Ages  3.00  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +1.66  S/R  50%
 3 Pilaster          1.40  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +2.66  S/R  67%
 2 Private Secretary 1.91  WIN  1.00  +0.91  +3.66  S/R 100%
 1 Pentland Hills    3.75  WIN  1.00  +2.75  +2.75  S/R 100%

April SELECTIONS: 14  WIN: 8  LOSE: 6  S/R: 57%   PROFIT: +2.59pts

(113L1112221113)      FINISHED First or Second (78.57%) 

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