Newbury Racecourse Template Home Page (Saturday 17 August 2019)

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The Racing Horse offers our powerful RACECOURSE TEMPLATE, RACING TRENDS and BETTING ADVICE for Newbury on Saturday 17 August 2019. We have the weather to consider but the intention is to nominate in 4 races and make a profit!

NEWBURY FAVOURITES (5 years)
Non-handicap                     Handicap
2yo:    53-166 for 32% (-29.76)   6-17  for 35%  (-5.40)
3yo:    29-93  for 31%  (-5.44)  44-152 for 29% (-20.09)
4yo+:   18-39  for 46% (+10.39)  26-134 for 19% (-48.18)
Total: 100-298 for 34% (-34.80)  76-303 for 25% (-73.67)

TOP 5 TRAINERS at NEWBURY for current year
Richard Hannon:    11 wins from 65 for 17% (+15.66)
John Gosden:        5 wins from 24 for 21%  (-9.19)
Andrew Balding:     5 wins from 33 for 15% (-12.35)
Michael Stoute:     4 wins from  8 for 50%  (+7.64)
Roger Charlton:     4 wins from 22 for 18%  (+9.87)

TOP 5 TRAINERS at NEWBURY for last 5 years
Richard Hannon:    54 wins from 480 for 11% (-82.13)
John Gosden:       42 wins from 183 for 23%  (+8.22)
William Haggas:    39 wins from 169 for 23% (+12.25)
Andrew Balding:    21 wins from 185 for 11%  (-9.92)
Michael Stoute:    19 wins from 114 for 17% (-30.06)

TOP 5 JOCKEYS at NEWBURY for current year
Silvestre De Sousa: 8 wins from 36 for 22%   (0.63)
Jason Watson:       8 wins from 42 for 19% (+26.87)
James Doyle:        7 wins from 32 for 22% ( +7.50)
Sean Levey:         6 wins from 30 for 20%  (+6.16)
Jim Crowley:        5 wins from 39 for 13%  (+3.50)

TOP 5 JOCKEYS at NEWBURY for 2018
James Doyle:       13 wins from 52 for 25%  (+1.18)
Silvestre De Sousa: 7 wins from 28 for 25% (+45.50)
Frankie Dettori:    6 wins from 22 for 27%  (+0.68)
Jim Crowley:        6 wins from 58 for 10% (+16.00)
William Buick:      5 wins from 25 for 20%  (-4.87)

* The Newbury Racecourse Template shows only 31% for 3yo favourites in non-handicaps and one of the smallest strike rates for that category on the UK surfaces.

* 4yo favourites in non-handicaps fare best with 46% and a profit of +10.39

* Strange that Michael Stoute has only ran 8 horses at the course this year.

NEWBURY RACING TRENDS (Saturday 17 August 2019)

* The number 1 & 3 leading jockeys over the past 5 years is Frankie Dettori (35) and Jim Crowley (32) and neither will be riding at Newbury. Fourth best Ryan Moore (27) has only 2 rides booked at this stage and hard to understand. Fifth best Silvestre De Sousa (24) has 5 rides and his rides must be looked at!

* James Doyle is leading jockey riding on Saturday over the past 5 years, he records 35-195 for 18% (-30.15) and at this time has 4 rides.

Lots more to come and then finalised before Friday 6pm

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  Today's Pacafi: click here

Proven mathematical laws are the governing force of horse racing betting. Consequently every bet we place is conceived then predicated from statistical analysis protected by a math-based edge with perceived value attached. Our formula is simple because we are yet to be convinced that a complication of a system is proportional to profit. So what do we mean by a math-based edge? It means finding something with a solid mathematical core, something historically profitable and something that is unlikely to change or suffer fatigue going forward. Then, if we can filter negative influences from the original proposal and provide a sound rationale for doing so, we can claim that betting edge.

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The absolute key to success in betting is the ability to identify value bet situations where the odds available are greater than the true chance of winning and then to have the discipline to methodically bet only when these situations arise. If this is done the laws of mathematics and probability dictate that in the long term, you will make a profit.

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