Pacafi (19 September 2019)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

MORISCO 1.30 Ayr at 6/4

EBF Novice Stakes (Plus 10 Race) (Class 4) (2yo) 1m

Pedigree: E45,000 Y; 8th foal; brother to 6f 2yo/6.8f winner Howzer Black (RPR 84), half-brother to 4 winners inc Reaver (1m inc AW; 89); dam Dutch 1m1f winner/third in Holland Derby, half-sister to 12.5f Group 2 winner Macleya and 15.5f Group 3 winner Montclair

Trainer Form: 6-35 for 17%   (10)
OR & RPR: 93 & 103           (10)                                     
Optimum Ground: Good         (10)
Optimum Distance: 1m         (10)
Jockey: Richard Kingscote    (10)

The Racing Horse Composite:  (50)

Main danger: Salamanca School 7/1

Listed sort running in a Class 4

Morisco is a promising individual and today carries a 3lb penalty against some interesting rivals. This Newcastle novice winner over 7f on the AW sets a strong form standard having been fifth in the Group 3 Acomb at York over 7f on good ground last month after seriously missing the break and losing his chance. Watching him finishing his race he is almost certain to improve for a step up in trip.

Looking closer at his Group 3 run he shaped well considering the stronger company and looked every inch a Listed performer probably over a mile especially given the  stamina in his pedigree on the dam side. Tomorrow he drops from a Group 3 to a Class 4 so 4 grades lower. He has to beat some useful looking newcomers but with a RPR of 103 he sets a very good standard. It will take a good one to beat him.

Going

The going is good with good to soft in places with no rain forecast. The fact there is the word soft in the going title means this mile will take some getting for these 2yos and this suits the Pacafi.

Trainer form

Trainer Tom Dascombe is in decent form and currently operating at around 17% which is 4% above his national and general average. His statistics at Ayr show 6-45 for 11% and not the best. Richard Kingscote rides and this solid combination show 503-3198 for 16%.

Of his rivals

Handlebars has placed twice in small fields at Musselburgh but Keith Dalgleish also runs Carlisle fifth Black Star Dancing, who has more scope. Michael Dods is also double-handed with staying-on Ripon fourth Arch Moon and newcomer Bouncing Bobby. Tony Hamilton prefers another debutant, Dreaming Blue, to Ambassador but Salamanca School could be the main danger. He’s a brother to three winners, including the top-class Prince Gibraltar, and is likely to know his job. Will Sommers is also from a yard whose juveniles do well here.

Timeform

A winner at Newcastle in July, MORISCO acquitted himself with credit when midfield in the Acomb at York last month. There is a strong suspicion that experience will aid his development further and he can concede weight all round. Arch Moon and Ambassador rate likely improvers from their debut efforts and are feared, while Dreaming Blue may do best of the newcomers.

Value

There is no way we can know how good the newcomers are but if the Pacafi runs his race the 6/4 must be value and the winner will have to run to a RPR of 100+ and that is something less likely to happen and especially at this time of the year.

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