The Racing Horse looks at the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe on Sunday 6 October 2019 which is one of Europe’s most valuable Group 1 contests ran at Longchamp. In recent years the contest has been dominated by the younger horses with 11 of the last 17 winners being aged 3yo.
The domination of 3yos in this race can be partly attributed to the fact that they get a significant weight allowance compared with the older horses that run in the race. The 3yo fillies are asked to race of only 8st 9lbs, whilst 3yo colts are asked to carry 8st 13lbs. This compares with older fillies who are asked to race off 9st 2lbs, with the older colts on 9st 5lbs.
16/17: Won a Group 1 race before (94%)
15/17: Won over 1m4f before (88%)
13/17: Raced 4 or more times that season (76%)
13/17: Drawn in stall 8 or lower (76%)
13/17: Priced 10/1 or shorter in the betting (76%)
18/25: Won by 3yos (72%)
12/17: Drawn in stall 6 or lower (71%)
12/17: Won at least 5 times before (71%)
12/17: Won last time out (71%)
11/17: Aged 3yo (65%)
11/17: Ran at Longchamp before (65%)
10/17: Won at Longchamp previously (59%)
..9/17: Placed favourites (53%)
..8/17: Female winners (47%)
..8/17: Won by a French-based yard (47%)
..7/17: Ran at Longchamp last time out (41%)
..3/10: Epsom Derby winners that season have won (30%)
..5/17: Winning favourites (29%)
..5/17: Won by a UK-based yard (29%)
..2/17: Trained by Andre Fabre (won the race 7 time)) (12%)
..2/17: Trained by Aidan O’Brien (2016, 2007) (12%)
..2/42: Aged 5yo or older (5%)
The average winning SP in the last 17 years is 7/1
John Gosden has won 3 of the last 4 runnings
Jockey Olivier Peslier has won the race 4 times
Jockey Frankie Dettori has won the race 6 times
The Racing Horse found the 1-2 last year: 2018 PRIX DE L'ARC DE TRIOMPHE
2018: Enable (Evf)
2017: Enable (10/11f)
2016: Found (6/1)
2015: Golden Horn (9/2)
2014: Treve (11/1)
2013: Treve (9/2)
2012: Solemia (33/1)
2011: Danedream (20/1)
2010: Workforce (6/1)
2009: Sea The Stars (4/6f)
2008: Zarkava (13/8f)
2007: Dylan Thomas (11/2)
2006: Rail Link (4/7f)
2005: Hurricane Run (11/4)
2004: Bago (10/1)
2003: Dalakhani (9/4)
2002: Marienbard (158/10)
The Clerk of the Course is anticipating good to soft ground for Sunday so we need to share our figures regarding Enable and ground conditions.
Ground Runs Wins 2nd 3rd S/R Good to Firm: 3 2 0 1 67% Good: 3 3 0 0 100% Standard: 1 1 0 0 100% Good to soft: 3 3 0 0 100% Standard to slow: 1 1 0 0 100%
From her 11 runs her only defeat was on good to firm ground and we know she has raced on ground with soft in the title when not completely fit, so we are happy to watch her run on good to soft. We do not need to remind members that Frankie Dettori is 9-9 when riding Enable and we think 10-10 is about to happen given a kind trip!
Frankie Dettori is taking no chances and will not ride until Saturday and quite right too! He missed the ride on Treve in 2013 after a injured ankle at Nottingham just four days earlier.
His agent Ray Cochrane told us: "I'd think this is the most pressure he's been under going into a race because of how remarkable it would be to win it three times. He wants it to go right and the thought of winning will drive him up the hill. We just want a clear run and good luck. He'll be training every day for an hour or so to keep himself organised, as well as getting plenty of sleep and rest. He'll then have three rides on Saturday and five on Sunday."
The Racing Horse Verdict
1st: ENABLE 4/5
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