Pacafi (5 October 2019)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

UNDER THE STARS 2.15 Newmarket at 7/4

£150,000 Tattersalls October Auction Stakes (Class 2) (2yo) 6f

Pedigree: 6,000gns Y; fourth foal; half-sister to 1m1f winner Creek Island (RPR 75); dam 7f/1m AW winner (78), half-sister to winners Al Khimiya (7f-1m AW) and Deity (6f-1m GB/US), is granddaughter of US 8.5f Grade 2 winner Shir Dar

Trainer Form: 10-36 for 28%  (10)
OR & RPR: 105 & 126          (10)                                     
Optimum Ground: Good to soft (10)
Optimum Distance: 6f         (10)
Jockey: Oisin Murphy         (10)

The Racing Horse Composite:  (50)

Main danger: Lambeth Walk

Optimum conditions

Under The Stars has been successful twice at 6f on good to firm and good to soft ground. Finished  just 1l behind Daahyeh when fourth of 8 at 5/1 on her latest outing here over 7f  on good ground last month. Today she races back over her optimum trip and the good to soft looks perfect ground. She also proves she acts on the course and in this big field is the only one who has.

Miles clear on ratings

There is a huge field for this valuable sales race but the Pacafi is the class horse in the race and in fact a Group 2 winner (July) racing in a Class 2, she has been racing in good company since, and our only concern at this time of the year is if she has trained over. Under The Stars has earned a rating of 105 with five cracking performances this season and will be hard to beat with a kind trip. On official rates she is 9lbs clear of the next best and 16lbs clear of the third best.

Fantastic trainer form

Trainer James Tate has already had his best season to date

2019	64 259	25%		 +14.94
2018	41 263	16%		 -63.83
2017	34 241	14%		-118.13
2016	54 302	18%		 -33.10
2015	43 254	17%		 -18.11
2014	41 314	13%		-107.71
2013	62 298	21%		 -15.94
2012	21 183	11%		 -57.59

He has gone past his previous best of 62 winners already and to strike at 25% with his 259 runners is an fantastic effort and if one had placed a £1 stake of each of them would bank a profit. September showed him maintaining his form with 10 winners from 36 runners for 28% (+0.66). Should he win today it would take him to over £860,000 in prize money and twice as much already than his next best total. Oisin Murphy rides for him today and the combination record  12-57 for 21%.

 Of her rivals

Keep Busy could go well at bigger odds as she was closing down the winner in a nursery at Chester seven days ago on soft going. Angel Grey was ahead of a subsequent Group 3 winner when third in a Goodwood nursery a month ago and could also be interesting if handling the softer surface while another with each-way claims is Bettys Hope. Lambeth Walk also brings solid Group form to the table, finishing fourth in the Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes on the July Course three runs ago, and she warrants respect.

PRICEWISE: "Emten has been crying out for 6f and the only time she got it she was given far too much to do in a good race on the all-weather at Chelmsford." If Tom Segal is right she is going to have to find 17lbs of improvement whilst only receiving 2lbs, apart from that she has to prove herself on the ground and track, good luck on that one!


UNDER THE STARS was beaten less than a length in the Rockfel here last week and has a huge chance with a repeat of that effort back over 6f. Bond's Boy was a stylish winner on debut at Redcar and could be a real threat with improvement on the cards. Angel Grey and Keep Busy are also considered.


If she retains her edge/form and gets a kind trip she wins and the 7/4 must be value. She races over her optimum trip knowing she will hit the line hard given her 7f form and this should cap a marvellous season for James Tate


     The Racing Horse will update the results of our 2018 Pacafi's as soon as possible especially for those who use percentage of the bank staking which is our preferred option. Our results will show advised odds/best price guaranteed, result, stake, win or lose, balance and strike-rate. The results will be shown at 1pt win stakes. From 1st March 2018 we will use 1 to 2pt win staking when appropriate and most favourable including the use of stake-savers.

7 Enable            1.80  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -0.45  S/R  43%
6 Kahala Queen F    1.80  WIN   1.00  +0.80  +0.55  S/R  50%
5 Under The Stars   2.75  WIN   1.00  +1.75  -0.25  S/R  40%
4 Borsdane Wood     2.25  WIN   1.00  +1.25  -2.00  S/R  25%
3 Hassaad F         1.80  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -3.25  S/R   0%
2 Ballymoy          2.00  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -2.25  S/R   0%
1 So Sharp          4.00  LOSE  1.25  -1.25  -1.25  S/R   0%

October SELECTIONS: 7  WIN: 3  LOSE: 4  S/R: 43%   LOSS: -0.45pts

(2221112)   FINISHED First or Second (100%)

(SSDSSDS) SHORTENS in price (71.43%)


Our information and betting advice is for educational purposes only. Please exercise caution when acting upon our advice and remember that gambling carries risk. No liability is taken by the site or product owner following any of the information given or sold to you. Betting always involves a level of risk and you should never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *