PREMIER POWER 6.00 Kempton at 4/5

32Red Casino Novice Stakes (Div II) (Class 5) (2yo) 6f

Pedigree: 80,000gns F, 300,000gns Y; first foal; dam 7f-1m winner (inc at 2/AW and turf Listed; RPR 107), half-sister to useful 6f/1m winner Masarah out of Listed-placed 1m-1m2f winner

Trainer Form: 7-31 for 23%   (10)
RPR: 97                      (10)                                     
Optimum Ground: Good/Std     (10)
Optimum Distance: 6f         (10)
Jockey: Silvestre De Sousa   (10)

The Racing Horse Composite:  (50)

Main danger: Well Prepared 7/2

Expected to win on debut

Premier Power cost 80,000gns as a foal and then 300,000gns as a yearling, is the first foal of a 7f-1m winner (inc at 2/AW and turf Listed; RPR 107). He was well backed to make a winning debut at Newmarket in a Class 4 Novice and started at even money only to be beaten by a horse with experience. He controlled the pace on the stands' rail and looked to be doing enough on the climb to the line, but in the final few yards he tied up and was caught on the line having been matched for plenty at 1.01 in running. He finished well clear of the rest and promised to win next time out!

Trainer form

The trainer Roger Varian has his horses back in brilliant form with 5 of his last 11 runners winning at prices of 9/4, 11/1, 13/8. 9/2 and 4/5. Within those numbers he has recorded 3 second places at prices of 2/1, 77/10 and 7/2. The trainer is about to beat his previous best winning figures of 2017:

2019: 101 winners from 509 for 20%
2018: 106 winners from 603 for 18%
2017: 109 winners from 558 for 20%

He has a runner at Kempton tonight and 2 more tomorrow but the Pacafi is his best chance of hitting 102. He more or less maintains his national average at Kempton showing 72-374 for 19% and the brilliant Sylvester De Sousa rides and he looks keen to get back into the groove after coming back from injury! When the jockey and trainer combine they score 23-96 for 24% and this encourages the bet further.

Of his rivals

Well Prepared looks the main danger and showed promise at Leicester on his introduction and is preferred to the likes of Tommy Rock and Streeton while Step To The Beat is a brother to a winner and preferred of the newcomers. Fleeting Prince has faced a couple of tough tasks since winning at this level at Windsor and is penalised on his return.

Timeform

PREMIER POWER only just failed to make a winning debut at Newmarket having been sent off a warm order, splitting a pair of subsequent winners in the process, so he should make no mistake at the second attempt despite the presence of another promising sort in Well Prepared. Fleeting Prince could get back on track after a couple of disappointing runs.

Value

Rival Well Prepared is slightly better drawn and will want to lead and is bred to handle this different trip/surface. We are looking to take a sit outside and pounce rather than take him on but value looks to be 8/11 an better with just the one to beat. We do respect Fleeting Prince but third place beckons for that one.

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If we were not betting Premier Power to win his main rival Well Prepared looks a good thing to run a place as long as he does not go off to fast in front...

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Other

Our last Pacafi was Karisoke and he proved majorly disappointing, emptying out in the last furlong and failing to run to anything like his previous best. The ground was presumably to blame. Our next Pacafi was pulled out because of the ground but we hope our members witnessed the betting patterns regarding Force Ten, had the ground been right he was expected to win!

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     The Racing Horse will update the results of our 2018 Pacafi's as soon as possible especially for those who use percentage of the bank staking which is our preferred option. Our results will show advised odds/best price guaranteed, result, stake, win or lose, balance and strike-rate. The results will be shown at 1pt win stakes. From 1st March 2018 we will use 1 to 2pt win staking when appropriate and most favourable including the use of stake-savers.

 9 Premier Power     1.80  WIN   1.00  +0.80  -0.65  S/R  44%
 8 Karisoke          1.67  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -1.45  S/R  38%
 7 Enable            1.80  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -0.45  S/R  43%
 6 Kahala Queen F    1.80  WIN   1.00  +0.80  +0.55  S/R  50%
 5 Under The Stars   2.75  WIN   1.00  +1.75  -0.25  S/R  40%
 4 Korsdane Wood     2.25  WIN   1.00  +1.25  -2.00  S/R  25%
 3 Hassaad F         1.80  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -3.25  S/R   0%
 2 Ballymoy          2.00  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -2.25  S/R   0%
 1 So Sharp          4.00  LOSE  1.25  -1.25  -1.25  S/R   0%

October SELECTIONS: 9  WIN: 4  LOSE: 5  S/R: 44%   LOSS: -0.65pts

(222111241)   FINISHED First or Second (88.89%)

(SSDSSDSSS) SHORTENS in price (77.78%)

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