DONNYBROOK 2.45 Yarmouth at 4/9

British EBF Novice Stakes (Plus 10 Race) (Class 4) (2yo) 6f3y

Pedigree: E900,000 Y; first foal; dam French 1m1f-1m4f winner (inc Group 3; RPR 111), sister to French 1m Group 2/US 1m4f stakes winner Royal Bench, half-sister to 1m5f Group 3 winner Memphis Tennessee, is granddaughter of 1m2f Group 1 winner

Trainer Form: 12-39 for 31%  (10)
RPR: 89                      (10)                                     
Optimum Ground: Good          (9)
Optimum Distance: 7f         (10)
Jockey: Rob Havlin           (10)

The Racing Horse Composite:  (49)

Main danger: Main Reef 5/1

Pulled so hard on debut and still nearly won

Donnybrook will be all the rage here despite her excellent debut coming over 7f on Polytrack. She finished third despite pulling hard all through the race. This is a 900,000 euros first foal of French 1m1f-1m4f winner (including Group 3; RPR 111), she took a strong hold with a hood applied on debut but she still managed to produce a surging effort out wide and deserves plenty of credit for going close and would have won if the race was 20 yards longer. This was very promising from this daughter of Invincible Spirit and capable of considerably better, in fact she could turn out to be top class.  

Ground concerns

There's no reason to believe she won't act on this surface and she can go one better. Her dam won five times between 1m 1f and 1m 4f including a Group 3 race. The dam showed form on heavy ground without winning, finishing in second and third place. Her Group 3 win was on good to soft ground and she also won a Listed race on good to soft. The sire of the Pacafi preferred fast ground so our only concern. Given her pace we do not expect the drop in distance on today's ground to be the difference between winning and losing and John Gosden will be thinking of the Godolphin filly first. We trust his decision.

Of her rivals

Main Reef must have been showing something at home in the spring as he started 4/6 on his debut at Musselburgh in May but was well beaten and has changed yards. His former handler saddles Baileys Blues, who finished last of four on his debut on heavy ground at Nottingham but should make progress while the market should give us clues to the newcomers with Molly Show, who is related to four winning 2yos, perhaps the best of them.

Timeform

John Gosden's DONNYBROOK sets a high standard and will prove very hard to beat in this novice following a most encouraging debut third at Kempton last month where she finished to some effect and would have won in a few more strides. Baileys Blues looks the one to chase her home now he is stepped up in trip.

Value

We missed the 1/2 available but still think the 4/9 is value and a good paddock will see her start closer to 1/3. We are conscious of Colour Image getting beat on unknown ground and we are hoping our filly's dna is closer to the dam than the sire, but she ought to win without having optimum ground.

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Easily sets the standard

We have a second Pacafi in Be Ahead 5.55 Wolverhampton. She has been placed in all three of her starts. Third of 10 behind Minuty beaten 3l on her latest outing at Chantilly over 6f on good ground last month. She is a sister to 5 winners and shown solid form in three French races getting a PRP of 92. Her pedigree suggests the surface and drop to 5f will not be a problem and she easily sets the standard.

Well clear on ratings

This looks as though she only has to match one of her previous efforts to win though has a tricky draw with stall 9 of 10. There is a bit of run before the turn and there is a lot of dead wood inside her. On ratings she is 12lbs clear of next best and that is without taking into account of weight received.

Trainer form

The trainer has been quiet and shows 1-3 for 33% for October. Trainer Eoghan O’Neill left the UK in 2009 than bought and developed the state-of-the-art training facility that is Haras de Lianger in South Normandy, France.

EOGHAN O'NEILL

Since his move to France Eoghan has been hugely successful in terms of races and prize money won and he currently trains 44 horses. Dane O'Neill rides.

Timeform

Connections may have found a good opening for BE AHEAD given the fairly useful level she has achieved in France which puts her a little way clear of these switched to Tapeta. On Tick will also find this easier than the Dundalk race she contested last time and is feared, with Lilkian another to consider.

Value

We are heavily relying on the RPRs and the fact we have a progressive filly rated 92 at this time of year running in a Wolverhampton Class 5 Maiden. The trainer is astute and why would he make this trip, we doubt it is for £3,429, her three runs to date she raced for €12,000 plus each time. We note a drift to 11/10 this morning (09.45) and this looks like the each way players placing their bets, we imagine once done the Pacafi will firm and start shorter than even money.

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