Racing Trends for the 2019 Melbourne Cup

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

The Racing Horse follows up our perspective, regarding the direction of travel of the Melbourne Cup, with some 15-year statistics, some of which run contrary to that personal view. Some things remain in stone. For example, all of the last 15 Cup winners won at Group class level previous to the race, whilst 13 of 15 raced in the last four weeks, 10 of the last 15 raced in the last two weeks.

The MELBOURNE CUP - IN MORTAL DANGER!

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Having lived in Australia and been involved with the race in some form since 1968 we can dispel the biggest old wives' tale about the desperate need to have an inside draw. One of our great times in racing was being in the company of Willie Mullins for the live draw on the Saturday night before the race in 2017 in the Phar Lap lounge, where we talked about a low draw versus a kind trip. Can you believe Willie asked me about the chances of Max Dynamite, Thomas Hobson, and the ill-fated Wicklow Brave and I was able to show him my racing trends and rationale for the race. We both agreed the televised draw and its importance was pure pantomime with an exaggerated relevance, though it created an intoxicating atmosphere that reverberated around Australia. 

 FACT: 13 of the last 15 winners came from stalls 5 or higher whilst 10 of the last 15 winners came from stalls 9 or higher. On fair courses like Flemington a kind trip trumps a perceived draw advantage but try telling the Australian public that, they will not accept it!

Trends and profiling are massive/essential tools but especially in big handicaps. Bettors need to acknowledge the four prerequisites of horse racing betting, trainer form, class, distance and ground. The bigger the race the more important the jockey but he/she is a conduit rather than a prerequisite.

15/15; Won a Group class race before (100%)
13/15: Raced within the last 4 weeks (87%)
13/15: Ran at Geelong (2), Flemington (3), Caulfield (3) or Mooney Valley (5) lto (87%)
13/15: Won 8 or fewer races before (87%)
13/15: Winners from stall 5 or higher (87%)
13/15: Winning distance – 2 lengths or less (87%)
10/15: Raced within the last 2 weeks (67%)
10/15: Aged 5yo or older (67%)
10/15: Drawn in stall 9 or higher (67%)
10/15: Placed in the top 3 last time out (67%)
..9/15: Aged 6yo or older (60%)
..9/15: Won by a Australian-based horse (60%)
..9/15: Raced at Flemington Park before (6 won) (60%)
..9/15: Stall 10 or 11 placed (60%)
..9/15: Returned 12/1 or shorter (60%)
..8/15: Won by a 6yo (53%)
..7/15: Placed favourites (47%)
..7/15: Won over 1m7f or further before (47%)
..4/15: Won just once before (27%)
..4/15: Won last time out (27%)
..3/15: Winning favourites (20%)
..3/15: Raced in a previous Melbourne Cup (20%)
..2/15: French-trained winners (13%)
..2/15: English/Irish winners (13%)
..0/13: Winning mares (0%)
..0/13: Carried more than 8st 13lbs or 57kg (0%)

LAST 15 WINNERS

2018: CROSS COUNTER (8/1)
2017: REKINDLING (14/1)
2016: ALMANDIN (10/1)
2015: PRINCE OF PENZANCE (100/1)
2014: PROTECTIONIST (7/1)
2013: FIORENTE (6/1f)
2012: GREEN MOON (19/1)
2011: DUNADEN (15/2)
2010: AMERICAIN (12/1)
2009: SHOCKING (9/1)
2008: VIEWED (40/1)
2007: EFFICIENT (16/1)
2006: DELTA BLUES (17/1)
2005: MAKYBE DIVA (17/5f)
2004: MAKYBE DIVA (13/5f)

The average winning SP in the last 14 runnings is 18/1
In 84 attempts stall 18 has never provided a Melbourne Cup winner
Michelle Payne only female jockey winner (2015) Pride Of Penzance at 100/1

This is a first draft and the piece will be updated a few times before the day of the race as pertinent information becomes available.

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  Today's Pacafi: click here

 

Proven mathematical laws are the governing force of horse racing betting. Consequently every bet we place is conceived then predicated from statistical analysis protected by a maths-based edge with perceived value attached. Our formula is simple because we are yet to be convinced that a complication of a system is proportional to profit. So what do we mean by a maths-based edge? It means finding something with a solid mathematical core, something historically profitable and something that is unlikely to change or suffer fatigue going forward. Then, if we can filter negative influences from the original proposal and provide a sound rationale for doing so, we can claim that betting edge.

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The absolute key to success in betting is the ability to identify value bet situations where the odds available are greater than the true chance of winning and then to have the discipline to methodically bet only when these situations arise. If this is done the laws of mathematics and probability dictate that in the long term, you will make a profit.

 Disclaimer
Our information and betting advice is for educational purposes only. Please exercise caution when acting upon our advice and remember that gambling carries risk. No liability is taken by the site or product owner following any of the information given or sold to you. Betting always involves a level of risk and you should never bet more than you can afford to lose.

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