Pacafi (24 October 2019)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

KINSMAN 6.15 Wolverhampton at evens

Ladbrokes, Home Of The Odds Boost Novice Stakes (Class 5) (2yo) 7f36y

Pedigree: 7th foal; brother to 7f AW winner Aristocratic (RPR 86), closely related to 1m winner Enobled (93), half-brother to winners Ladyship (6f-7f inc Listed; 105) and Spanish Point (Ire 1m/Australia 1m4f; 88); dam 7f-1m winner (inc Group 1 at 5yrs; 122)

Trainer Form: 2-7 for 29%    (10) 
RPR: 88                      (10)                                   
Optimum Ground: Good/Std     (10)
Optimum Distance: 7f         (10)
Jockey: James Doyle          (10)

The Racing Horse Composite:  (50)

Main danger: Abwaaq 3/1

Build on near miss

Kinsman did not get the run of the race over this trip at Yarmouth on debut but finished to good effect and will strip a better horse this time round. There is every chance the Exceed And Excel colt, whose dam is a dual Group 1 winner, can build on that near miss and develop into a useful operator. The first bend comes up quick over 7f at this course and Kinsman has stall one to help and can take a sit behind San Rafael who will probably lead early.

Trainer form

We notice the press is talking about an out of form trainer but 2 of his last 7 have won for 29% and both won by four lengths including a Listed race so if that is out of form we are in trouble. At Wolverhampton he scores 128-604 for 21% so a little down on his national average of 23%. James Doyle rides and the combination register 84-334 for 25%.

Of his rivals

San Rafael is penalised for his course and distance victory, where he made most of the running and able to set his own fractions but now meets better opposition here. Abwaaq, who started favourite, was beaten just under a length when given too much to do and must have a fair chance of reversing the form on these terms. Well Prepared made a promising debut at Leicester but weakened quickly after attempting to make all at Kempton. 


KINSMAN and Abwaaq both make plenty of appeal on pedigree and arrive on the back of encouraging debuts, so they're expected to dominate this with the first-named marginally preferred. Well Prepared is another obvious player if he can get back to the sort of form he showed on debut.


Not sure about value but we believe we are on the right side. The form of his debut does not stand out but the feeling here is the Pacafi will know a lot more today and has a great draw to take him into the race. Well Prepared might take on San Rafael early but has stall 7 to overcome whilst the latter has stall 3 and this looks a key point of the race.


     The Racing Horse will update the results of our 2018 Pacafi's as soon as possible especially for those who use percentage of the bank staking which is our preferred option. Our results will show advised odds/best price guaranteed, result, stake, win or lose, balance and strike-rate. The results will be shown at 1pt win stakes. From 1st March 2018 we will use 1 to 2pt win staking when appropriate and most favourable including the use of stake-savers.

22 Kinsman           2.00        1.00
21 Legends Gold      1.72        1.00
20 Raaeb             1.53  WIN   1.00  +0.53  +4.98  S/R  60%
19 Finery            2.87  WIN   1.25  +1.62  +4.45  S/R  58%
18 Star Catcher      2.75  WIN   1.25  +1.50  +2.83  S/R  56%
17 Stradivarius      1.62  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +1.33  S/R  53%
16 Enrilo            1.57  WIN   1.00  +0.57  +2.33  S/R  56%
15 Cobber Kain       4.30  LOSE  1.25  -1.25  +1.76  S/R  53%
14 Alrajaa           2.87  WIN   1.25  +1.62  +3.01  S/R  57%
13 Be Ahead          2.10  WIN   1.00  +1.10  +1.39  S/R  54%
12 Donnybrook        1.44  WIN   1.00  +0.44  +0.29  S/R  50%
11 Colour Image      2.62  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -0.15  S/R  45%
10 Silver Forever    2.50  WIN   1.00  +1.50  +0.85  S/R  50%
 9 Premier Power     1.80  WIN   1.00  +0.80  -0.65  S/R  44%
 8 Karisoke F        1.67  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -1.45  S/R  38%
 7 Enable            1.80  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -0.45  S/R  43%
 6 Kahala Queen F    1.80  WIN   1.00  +0.80  +0.55  S/R  50%
 5 Under The Stars   2.75  WIN   1.00  +1.75  -0.25  S/R  40%
 4 Korsdane Wood     2.25  WIN   1.00  +1.25  -2.00  S/R  25%
 3 Hassaad F         1.80  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -3.25  S/R   0%
 2 Ballymoy          2.00  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -2.25  S/R   0%
 1 So Sharp          4.00  LOSE  1.25  -1.25  -1.25  S/R   0%

October SELECTIONS: 20  WIN: 12  LOSE: 8  S/R: 60%   PROFIT: +4.98pts

(22211124116111512111)   FINISHED First or Second (85.00%)



Our information and betting advice is for educational purposes only. Please exercise caution when acting upon our advice and remember that gambling carries risk. No liability is taken by the site or product owner following any of the information given or sold to you. Betting always involves a level of risk and you should never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *