KINROSS 2.50 Newbury at 5/4

Cancom Stakes (Registered As The Horris Hill Stakes) (Group 3) (Colts & Geldings) (Class 1) (2yo) 7f

Pedigree: Fifth foal; half-brother to 1m winner Ceilidhs Dream (RPR 92) and 5f-6f winner Pillar (66); dam 1m (at 2) and 10.5f (Listed) winner (103), sister to 1m2f/1m4f winner Melrose Abbey and 1m2f winner Shela House, out of 1m2f/1m4f Listed winner

Trainer Form: 8-23 for 35%   (10) 
RPR: 115                     (10)                                   
Optimum Ground: Good to Soft  (9)←
Optimum Distance: 1m         (10)
Jockey: Harry Bentley        (10)

The Racing Horse Composite:  (49)

Main danger: Year Of The Tiger 11/2

Kinross is set to get the chance to further enhance his Classic potential by having his second start at Newbury on Saturday in the Group Three Cancom Stakes, registered as the Horris Hill Stakes. The Kingman colt made a stunning debut when he trounced a field of more experienced rivals winning by eight lengths at Newmarket earlier this month, which earned him a quote of 25/1 for next year’s Qipco 2,000 Guineas. Bred and owned by Julian Richmond Watson, he earned a Timeform rating of 106P after such a commanding first time out performance.

KINROSS WINNING DEBUT

Exciting Kingman colt

Kinross was hugely impressive and looked a potentially smart colt when beating a subsequent winner and Pacafi by a wide-margin at Newmarket on his debut. The runner-up has since franked the form. Kinross could be absolutely anything, we will know more tomorrow but Ralph Beckett's exciting Kingman colt is fancied to complete the double.

Needs to run again

Ralph Beckett told us earlier this week: "I was expecting him to run very well, to hopefully win but we were not expecting that. His starting price (3/1) reflected our view. The rating he got for his debut is not something I have ever had for a debutant in 20 years. Let’s hope the form people are right.  We have been pleased with him since. He will do a bit more work in the morning and the plan is to run him on Saturday. We are forecast a dry week (wrong) and it was good to soft when he won but I imagine it will still be good to soft at best this weekend. Whatever it is we have got to get on with it because he needs to run again."

Of his rivals

Boccaccio and Kenzai Warrior also made winning debuts though the Godolphin colt who made a good impression hasn’t raced since May. Surf Dancer has won a couple of novice events and is worth a try at this level. The danger is Aidan O'Brien trained Year Of The Tiger rated 108 and we know he handles soft ground and will be ridden by Frankie Dettori. He is preferred to stablemate and Newmarket maiden winner New World Tapestry.

Ground conditions

We need to look at the ground conditions and make a considered judgement. The sire of Kinross is the brilliant miler Kingman and from his 8 runs he won 7 and was placed second on the other occasion. From those races the sire has won on soft ground and on soft to heavy. The dam is Ceilidh House and she was largely raced on ground with give in it and her two wins both came on good to soft ground.

Trainer form

The trainer is the most sublime form and is currently 8 wins from 22 runners for a strike rate of 36% and his partnership with jockey Harry Bentley has proved to be a potent force. The trainer has an average strike rate at Newbury but shows 40-351 for 11% but a level stake profit of +50.87. The trainer/jockey combination show 106-591 for 18%.

Timeform

KINROSS looked something out of the ordinary when scoring readily on debut at Newmarket 3 weeks ago, noted travelling powerfully and quickening up impressively. Open to above average improvement, he can make a bold bid upped in class. Year of The Tiger has acquitted himself well in Group company already and is feared, along with Boccaccio and Surf Dancer.

Value

The Kingman colt looked something out of the ordinary when bolting up by 8 lengths on debut at Newmarket over 7f three weeks ago and is clearly an exciting prospect and one of the favourites for next year's classics. He has to improve past an Aidan O'Brien runner to win but at 5/4 we believe he will if he handles the heavy ground, our only concern. Worth pointing out the Pacafi is a May colt so entitled to improve again massively just on that basis. This is one to get excited about and trainer Ralph Beckett would not risk such a promising/potentially his best colt ever if he thought the ground was a big negative!

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     The Racing Horse will update the results of our 2018 Pacafi's as soon as possible especially for those who use percentage of the bank staking which is our preferred option. Our results will show advised odds/best price guaranteed, result, stake, win or lose, balance and strike-rate. The results will be shown at 1pt win stakes. From 1st March 2018 we will use 1 to 2pt win staking when appropriate and most favourable including the use of stake-savers.

25 Edinburgh Castle  1.80        1.00
24 Kinross           2.25        1.00
23 Hamish F          1.72  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +5.70  S/R  61%
22 Kinsman           2.00  WIN   1.00  +1.00  +6.70  S/R  64%
21 Legends Gold      1.72  WIN   1.00  +0.72  +5.70  S/R  62%
20 Raaeb             1.53  WIN   1.00  +0.53  +4.98  S/R  60%
19 Finery            2.87  WIN   1.25  +1.62  +4.45  S/R  58%
18 Star Catcher      2.75  WIN   1.25  +1.50  +2.83  S/R  56%
17 Stradivarius      1.62  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +1.33  S/R  53%
16 Enrilo            1.57  WIN   1.00  +0.57  +2.33  S/R  56%
15 Cobber Kain       4.30  LOSE  1.25  -1.25  +1.76  S/R  53%
14 Alrajaa           2.87  WIN   1.25  +1.62  +3.01  S/R  57%
13 Be Ahead          2.10  WIN   1.00  +1.10  +1.39  S/R  54%
12 Donnybrook        1.44  WIN   1.00  +0.44  +0.29  S/R  50%
11 Colour Image      2.62  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -0.15  S/R  45%
10 Silver Forever    2.50  WIN   1.00  +1.50  +0.85  S/R  50%
 9 Premier Power     1.80  WIN   1.00  +0.80  -0.65  S/R  44%
 8 Karisoke F        1.67  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -1.45  S/R  38%
 7 Enable            1.80  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -0.45  S/R  43%
 6 Kahala Queen F    1.80  WIN   1.00  +0.80  +0.55  S/R  50%
 5 Under The Stars   2.75  WIN   1.00  +1.75  -0.25  S/R  40%
 4 Korsdane Wood     2.25  WIN   1.00  +1.25  -2.00  S/R  25%
 3 Hassaad F         1.80  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -3.25  S/R   0%
 2 Ballymoy          2.00  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -2.25  S/R   0%
 1 So Sharp          4.00  LOSE  1.25  -1.25  -1.25  S/R   0%

October SELECTIONS: 23  WIN: 14  LOSE: 9  S/R: 61%   PROFIT: +5.70pts

(22211124116111512111112)   FINISHED First or Second (86.96%)

(SSDSSDSSSSDSDSDSSSSSSSS) SHORTENS in price (78.26%)

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