Racecourse Template for Kempton (31 October 2019)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

The Racing Horse offers a RACECOURSE TEMPLATE for Kempton Thursday 31 October 2019. The importance and relevance of them must not be underestimated.

The going is standard to slow.

Kempton FAVOURITES (5 years)
Non-handicap                       Handicap
2yo:    143-320 for 45% (-12.11)   35-112   for 31% (-11.93)
3yo:    112-246 for 46% (-13.44)   178-547  for 33% (-38.34)
4yo+:    41-86  for 48%  (+9.32)   257-831  for 31% (-27.50)
Total:  296-652 for 45% (-16.23)   470-1490 for 32% (-77.78)

TOP 5 TRAINERS at KEMPTON for current year
John Gosden:    17 wins from  49 for 35%  (+6.82)
Archie Watson:  17 wins from  72 for 24%  (-2.76)
Roger Varian:   15 wins from  58 for 26% (+19.14)
Andrew Balding: 14 wins from  71 for 20% (+33.94)
Richard Hannon: 13 wins from 112 for 12% (-25.69)

TOP 5 JOCKEYS at KEMPTON for current year
Oisin Murphy:   30 wins from 144 for 21% (-19.15)
Adam Kirby:     20 wins from 119 for 17% (-29.70)
Jim Crowley:    16 wins from  55 for 29%  (+3.64)
Hollie Doyle	15 wins from 104 for 14% (-21.84)
Luke Morris:    12 wins from 143 for  8% (-66.34)

 Our template show the 4yo favourites in non-handicaps have best strike rates at Kempton recording 41-86 for 48% (+9.32). Favourites in non-handicaps over the past 5 years generally score 296-652 for 45% (-16.23) and a starting point for those betting thought processes.

Top trainer at the course is John Gosden and he runs one in Good Tidings 6.40 at 13/8 and looks another winner for him. El Misk was his only runner last night and won at 13/8. Mark Johnston sends just one runner to the course with Secret Smile 6.10 at 10/1.

Top jockey is Oisin Murphy has no rides at Kempton though has four at Lingfield earlier today. Interesting to see Adam Kirby back from a break and goes to Lingfield for just one ride and then on to Chelmsford for three mores and he looks certain to have a winner from those four! Jim Crowley has just one ride at Kempton and Dawaaween 7.10 looks a winner at 13/8.

The Racing Horse always removes the horses from a race where the trainers are clearly out of form. In the 4.40 Class 7 Handicap 9 of the 12 trainers are out of form leaving just Hollander, Moneta and Diamond Cara. This race will not take much winning so we have gone for a big price...

The Racing Horse Advice on Wednesday

The Racing Horse Advice on Monday


4.40
Draw bias against high
TRH: Diamond Cara 22/1, Moneta 13/2 and Hollander 4/1 WINNER
5.10
£46.28: Dean Ivory profit to £1 with favourites (CLASSIC STAR)
39%: Rob Havlin strike rate on favourites (CAUTHEN)
Draw bias favours low
TRH: CLASSIC STAR 5/1
5.40
Draw bias against high
TRH: LOLA PAIGE 9/1
6.10
£11.00: Sylvester Kirk's profit to £1 with debutants (PAINT IT BLACK)
Draw bias favours low
TRH: SECRET AQUISITION 11/8
6.40
£16.50: Martin Bosley profit to £1 when one runner at flat meeting (EXCEEDING POWER)
23%: Saeed bin Suroor strike rate at course since start of 2015 season (CANTINIERE)
39%: Robert Havlin strike rate on favourites (GOOD TIDINGS)
TRH: GOOD TIDINGS 13/8 2nd
7.10
23%: Roger Varian strike rate at course since start of 2015 season (DARING VENTURE)
£31.82: John Butler profit to £1 with horses running afte break (SOAR ABOVE)
38%: Jim Crowley strike rate on favourites (DAWAAWEEN)
TRH: DUNAAWEEN 13/8
7.40
£17.20: Tony Carroll profit to £1 with favourites (FALCON CLIFFS)
Draw bias against high
TRH: FALCON CLIFFS 3/1 3rd
8.10
£17.20: Tony Carroll profit to £1 with favourites (PAPA DELTA)
Draw bias against high
TRH: MY TOWN CHICAGO 9/2 WINNER

***

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