LA CAVSA NOSTRA 2.10 Sedgefield at 6/5

MansionBet Best Odds Guaranteed Chase (A Novices' Limited Handicap) (Class 3) (4yo+ 0-135) 3m2f59y

Pedigree: E15,500 F, E68,000 3yo; 5th foal; half-brother to winners Changing Times (useful 2m2f-2m5f jump), Phare Isle (2m5f-3m1f jump) and Hilltop Tommy (bumper); dam placed in Irish bumper/point, sister to dam of smart jumper Loosen My Load

Trainer Form: 3-31 for 10%    (9)
National average: 14% 
DSLW: 0
Course: 43% (21-51)
RPR: 140                     (10)                                   
Optimum Ground: Soft         (10)
Optimum Distance: 3m+        (10)
Jockey: Robert Dunne          (9)
DSLW: 8
Course: 12%

The Racing Horse Composite:  (48)

Main danger: Fortified Bay 11/2

Potential to rank higher

La Cavsa Nostra is a dual point winner last year and took a liking to soft ground. He looked liked one to follow when scoring at Chepstow last month and the 7yo is fancied to bounce back under Robert Dunne after unshipping Sam Waley-Cohen at Warwick six days ago. The switch to longer trips appears to have sparked him into life, and this is a nice opening for compensation. Before his Chepstow win he had finished well beaten on one previous run over fences, but that came over 2m2f in a novice against decent company, and he proved a different proposition upped to this sort of trip from a lowly mark. He wasn't for catching, galloping on strongly, and has the potential to rank quite a bit higher than this.

Jumping at Warwick

At Warwick on his last start he was made the 5/4 favourite and expected to win but Racing Post columnist David Orton stupidly said: "He hadn't been entirely fluent prior to guessing at the fifth and getting rid of Sam Waley-Cohen." We do not believe he watched the race - the horse NEVER guessed at the fifth, he did the exact opposite, his jockey wanted to jump long but the horse wanted to be closer to the fence! TRH had been thinking how well he had been jumping and so did the television pundits after the race. Perhaps the second was an average jump but one, three and four were excellent giving him a two length lead at each of them. We also like his racing rhythm from the front and he will be probably ridden that way again tomorrow. The jockey fell off our bet two or three strides after the fence and more importantly the horse galloped on after the parting showing no ill-effects. Trainers Philip Hobbs and Graeme McPherson thought they had little chance of winning this particular race because of the progression of the Pacafi and the fact he looked well-in!

Trainer form

Trainer Neil Mulholland loves sending horses to Sedgefield from Bath, it is his fourth best for number of winners but top racecourse for strike rate with 21 winners from just 51 runners for a huge 43% and a level stake profit of +18.25. He sends just this one up north and a trip of nearly 300 miles and over 5 hours in the lorry. His national average is 14% and we note he is recording 10% over the last fortnight but the results do not show his true form. His neck second in the Badger Beers Silver Handicap Listed Chase at Wincanton with Soupy Soups at a double figure price is foremost in the memory, and he has a number of other placed efforts to his name in the past week or so.

Also, of the five trainers with entries for this race he is easily in the best form and offer some relative comparisons:

NEIL MULLHOLLAND: 
November:  2-26 for  8% (-14.00)
October:   7-56 for 13%  (-1.25)
September: 4-20 for 20%  (-5.99)
RICHARD HOBSON:
November:  0-4  for  0%  (-4.00)
October:   0-3  for  0%  (-3.00)
September: 0-0  for  0%     -
KENNY JOHNSON:
November:  0-5  for  0%  (-5.00)
October:   0-10 for  0% (-10.00)
September: 1-7  for 14%  (-0.50)
JENNIE CANDLISH:
November:  0-12 for  0% (-12.00)
October:   0-21 for  0% (-21.00)
September: 1-6  for 17%  (-1.00)
TONY COYLE:
November:                   -
October:   0-1  for  0%  (-1.00)
September:                  -

Robert Dunne rides and his last 14 days show 2-20 for 10% and the consensus is he rides that much better over fences than hurdles and the trainer tends to do that much better in this discipline too! This is his only ride.

Of his rivals

Fortified Bay bumped into a couple of well-treated animals over the summer and is interesting back from a break, this one could be the danger is our rationale is flawed while dour stayer Cairnshill is also noted. Lord Du Mesnil was also narrowly beaten at Stratford on his reappearance though has been raised 5lb for his efforts.

Timeform

LA CAVSA NOSTRA was impressive at Chepstow on return and is worth another chance to improve further having come down fairly early last time. He's preferred to the in-form Cairnshill, while Fortified Bay appeals as the type to take to chasing at the first attempt, so he's on the radar, too.

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     The Racing Horse will update the results of our 2018 Pacafi's as soon as possible especially for those who use percentage of the bank staking which is our preferred option. Our results will show advised odds/best price guaranteed, result, stake, win or lose, balance and strike-rate. The results will be shown at 1pt win stakes. From 1st March 2018 we will use 1 to 2pt win staking when appropriate and most favourable including the use of stake-savers.

 9 La Cavsa Nostra   2.20  WIN   1.00  +1.20  +4.75  S/R  78%
 8 Fusil Raffles     1.62  WIN   1.00  +0.62  +3.55  S/R  75%
 7 Reserve Tank      1.91  WIN   1.00  +0.91  +2.93  S/R  71%
 6 True Self         2.10  WIN   1.00  +1.10  +2.02  S/R  67%
 5 Ottoman Court     2.50  WIN   1.00  +1.50  +0.92  S/R  60%
 4 Mishriff          1.80  WIN   1.00  +0.80  -0.58  S/R  50%
 3 Asmund            1.62  WIN   1.00  +0.62  -1.38  S/R  33%
 2 Desert Peace      1.44  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -2.00  S/R   0%
 1 Melbourne Cup     9.00  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -1.00  S/R   0%

November SELECTIONS: 9  WIN: 7  LOSE: 2  S/R: 78%   PROFIT: +4.75pts

(331111111)   FINISHED First or Second (77.78%)

(SSSSDDSSS) SHORTENS in price (77.78%)

24 Ed'burgh Castle F 1.91  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +4.70  S/R  58%
23 Hamish F          1.72  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +5.70  S/R  61%
22 Kinsman           2.00  WIN   1.00  +1.00  +6.70  S/R  64%
21 Legends Gold      1.72  WIN   1.00  +0.72  +5.70  S/R  62%
20 Raaeb             1.53  WIN   1.00  +0.53  +4.98  S/R  60%
19 Finery            2.87  WIN   1.25  +1.62  +4.45  S/R  58%
18 Star Catcher      2.75  WIN   1.25  +1.50  +2.83  S/R  56%
17 Stradivarius      1.62  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +1.33  S/R  53%
16 Enrilo            1.57  WIN   1.00  +0.57  +2.33  S/R  56%
15 Cobber Kain       4.30  LOSE  1.25  -1.25  +1.76  S/R  53%
14 Alrajaa           2.87  WIN   1.25  +1.62  +3.01  S/R  57%
13 Be Ahead          2.10  WIN   1.00  +1.10  +1.39  S/R  54%
12 Donnybrook        1.44  WIN   1.00  +0.44  +0.29  S/R  50%
11 Colour Image      2.62  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -0.15  S/R  45%
10 Silver Forever    2.50  WIN   1.00  +1.50  +0.85  S/R  50%
 9 Premier Power     1.80  WIN   1.00  +0.80  -0.65  S/R  44%
 8 Karisoke F        1.67  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -1.45  S/R  38%
 7 Enable            1.80  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -0.45  S/R  43%
 6 Kahala Queen F    1.80  WIN   1.00  +0.80  +0.55  S/R  50%
 5 Under The Stars   2.75  WIN   1.00  +1.75  -0.25  S/R  40%
 4 Korsdane Wood     2.25  WIN   1.00  +1.25  -2.00  S/R  25%
 3 Hassaad F         1.80  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -3.25  S/R   0%
 2 Ballymoy          2.00  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -2.25  S/R   0%
 1 So Sharp          4.00  LOSE  1.25  -1.25  -1.25  S/R   0%

October SELECTIONS: 24  WIN: 14  LOSE: 10  S/R: 58%   PROFIT: +4.70pts

(222111241161115121111123)   FINISHED First or Second (83.33%)

(SSDSSDSSSSDSDSDSSSSSSSSD) SHORTENS in price (75.00%)

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