LORD NORTH 2.45 Lingfield at 4/6

Betway Churchill Stakes (Listed Race) (Fast Track Qualifier) (Class 1) (3yo+) 1m2f

Pedigree: Third foal; half-brother to 1m2f winner Chronicles (RPR 87); dam 7f/1m 2yo winner (inc AW; 85), half-sister to 7f 2yo Gr 3 winner Discourse and US 1m1f Gr 1 winner Bandini and out of US stakes-placed 6f/8.5f winner, granddaughter of US 8.5f Gr 1 winner

Trainer Form: 6-30 for 20%   (10)
National average: 24% 
DSLW: 8 (5 runners)
Course: 20% (158-773)
OR & RPR: 112 & 122          (10)                                   
Optimum Ground: Standard     (10)
Optimum Distance: 1m2f       (10)
Jockey: Frankie Dettori      (10)
DSLW: 18 (7 rides)
Course: 180-618 for 29% (+108.63)

The Racing Horse Composite:  (50)

Main danger: Caradoc 11/2

Penalty unlikely to be an issue

Lord North has won four times from 1m to 1m 2f including a win on the all-weather. He won on his latest outing when the 10/11 favourite at Newmarket over 1m 2f  on heavy ground earlier this month, beating Pablo Escobarr by 2 1/4l. He has won 3 times this season. The Cambridgeshire winner (value for plenty extra) was always pulling double in this grade at Newmarket when trying this 1m2f distance for the first time and a 3lb penalty is unlikely to halt his progress and he is clearly a Group horse. He looks just the type to emulate last year's Cambridgeshire winner and stablemate Wissahickon by going on to enjoy success on sand.

Potential Group Class - John Gosden

John Gosden confirmed to us after his win in the Cambridgeshire Class 2 Handicap: "I thought Lord North was a potential Group-class horse earlier in the year but his mind was the problem. It was a bit cheeky of Frankie in the closing stages, all that looking around. That's the end of handicaps now." Frankie has three rides in three Listed Races at the course but this is his best chance of a winner and the reason for his appearance.

Of his rivals

Pactolus has won on Turf but is a real all-weather specialist who seems a lot more consistent nowadays. Kuwait Currency is a useful miler but has had problems staying this trip but Caradoc is completely unexposed on this surface and appears to improve with every run, he looks the danger.

Timeform

Hard to see past LORD NORTH. The emphatic Cambridgeshire winner relished every yard of this trip in the mud back at Newmarket a fortnight ago and he could go right to the top. Caradoc is progressing all the time and may emerge as the danger back on AW.

Value

We have a progressive Group horse running in a Listed race, we have a nice draw and the best jockey in the world riding. He is a 3yo racing in a non handicap race at Lingfield (46%) and he races over his optimum distance though might prefer things a bit slower underfoot. We would have taken 8/13 and maybe 4/7 so happy with the 4/6.

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     The Racing Horse will update the results of our 2018 Pacafi's as soon as possible especially for those who use percentage of the bank staking which is our preferred option. Our results will show advised odds/best price guaranteed, result, stake, win or lose, balance and strike-rate. The results will be shown at 1pt win stakes. From 1st March 2018 we will use 1 to 2pt win staking when appropriate and most favourable including the use of stake-savers.

10 Lord North        1.67 
 9 La Cavsa Nostra   2.20  WIN   1.00  +1.20  +4.75  S/R  78%
 8 Fusil Raffles     1.62  WIN   1.00  +0.62  +3.55  S/R  75%
 7 Reserve Tank      1.91  WIN   1.00  +0.91  +2.93  S/R  71%
 6 True Self         2.10  WIN   1.00  +1.10  +2.02  S/R  67%
 5 Ottoman Court     2.50  WIN   1.00  +1.50  +0.92  S/R  60%
 4 Mishriff          1.80  WIN   1.00  +0.80  -0.58  S/R  50%
 3 Asmund            1.62  WIN   1.00  +0.62  -1.38  S/R  33%
 2 Desert Peace      1.44  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -2.00  S/R   0%
 1 Melbourne Cup     9.00  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -1.00  S/R   0%

November SELECTIONS: 9  WIN: 7  LOSE: 2  S/R: 78%   PROFIT: +4.75pts

(331111111)   FINISHED First or Second (77.78%)

(SSSSDDSSS) SHORTENS in price (77.78%)

24 Ed'burgh Castle F 1.91  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +4.70  S/R  58%
23 Hamish F          1.72  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +5.70  S/R  61%
22 Kinsman           2.00  WIN   1.00  +1.00  +6.70  S/R  64%
21 Legends Gold      1.72  WIN   1.00  +0.72  +5.70  S/R  62%
20 Raaeb             1.53  WIN   1.00  +0.53  +4.98  S/R  60%
19 Finery            2.87  WIN   1.25  +1.62  +4.45  S/R  58%
18 Star Catcher      2.75  WIN   1.25  +1.50  +2.83  S/R  56%
17 Stradivarius      1.62  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +1.33  S/R  53%
16 Enrilo            1.57  WIN   1.00  +0.57  +2.33  S/R  56%
15 Cobber Kain       4.30  LOSE  1.25  -1.25  +1.76  S/R  53%
14 Alrajaa           2.87  WIN   1.25  +1.62  +3.01  S/R  57%
13 Be Ahead          2.10  WIN   1.00  +1.10  +1.39  S/R  54%
12 Donnybrook        1.44  WIN   1.00  +0.44  +0.29  S/R  50%
11 Colour Image      2.62  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -0.15  S/R  45%
10 Silver Forever    2.50  WIN   1.00  +1.50  +0.85  S/R  50%
 9 Premier Power     1.80  WIN   1.00  +0.80  -0.65  S/R  44%
 8 Karisoke F        1.67  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -1.45  S/R  38%
 7 Enable            1.80  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -0.45  S/R  43%
 6 Kahala Queen F    1.80  WIN   1.00  +0.80  +0.55  S/R  50%
 5 Under The Stars   2.75  WIN   1.00  +1.75  -0.25  S/R  40%
 4 Korsdane Wood     2.25  WIN   1.00  +1.25  -2.00  S/R  25%
 3 Hassaad F         1.80  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -3.25  S/R   0%
 2 Ballymoy          2.00  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -2.25  S/R   0%
 1 So Sharp          4.00  LOSE  1.25  -1.25  -1.25  S/R   0%

October SELECTIONS: 24  WIN: 14  LOSE: 10  S/R: 58%   PROFIT: +4.70pts

(222111241161115121111123)   FINISHED First or Second (83.33%)

(SSDSSDSSSSDSDSDSSSSSSSSD) SHORTENS in price (75.00%)

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